Higher electricity prices from 2020

A bearish view on the Dutch wholesale electricity price for or the coming two quarters and bullish view from 2020 onwards. Coal-to-gas switching for power generation is happening on the back of lower gas prices and a higher carbon price. Gas inventory levels are at a record high in northwest Europe, which supports a bearish view on gas prices till the end of the year before we move into a tighter market starting 2020. Coal prices remain under pressure, with a high inflow of gas imports into Europe, strong carbon prices, and warmer-than-usual temperatures. EU ETS (the European Emission Trading Scheme) so far characterized by high volatility related to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), a possible no-deal Brexit and speculative trading.