COVID-19 impact on the Netherlands

Short but sharp recession Our baseline scenario sees GDP contracting 3.5% Consumer spending dries up, hospitality industry hit very hard… … but offline-to-online substitution limits total fall in consumer spending to an estimated 5% in 2020 In such times as these, the open Dutch economy is vulnerable: trade plunges into a downward spiral Investments can rebound when government measures to contain COVID-19 are lifted COVID-19 need not inflict lasting damage on production capacity if supply-side activity rapidly revives Growth will only resume the upward trend in the course of 2021 Downward risks are substantial, negative sentiment and uncertainty can cause further disruption