Poland Watch - The cycle has turned

After surging to 5.1% in 2018, growth will slow to 3.5% in 2019. Weak export and investment in 2019/2020 will be partly offset by fiscal stimuli. We expect a slight rebound in inflation to 2% in 2019. Policy rate will remain at 1.5% until the second half of 2020. We expect the zloty to outperform the euro in 2019/2020.