The Week Ahead - 1 - 5 December 2025

United States – Unaffected by the shutdown, we'll get November data on ISM manufacturing and services PMI. We expect manufacturing to increase slightly to 49.0, and services to decline to 51.8. We'll also get some delayed September data trickling in. On Wednesday we're likely to get September import-price report, which we expect to come in negative at -0.3%, reversing August's gain. Industrial production will likely stay flat at 0.0%. On Friday we get September PCE readings. Based on CPI and PPI reports, we expect core PCE to come in at 0.2%, and headline PCE at 0.3%. Year-on-year will stay at 2.9% for core. We expect personal spending to slow to 0.2%, while personal income rose by 0.4%. Eurozone – Inflation for November is expected to hold steady, both on headline and core measures. The drag from energy is likely to fade somewhat, with higher refiner margins pushing petrol prices modestly higher, despite continued low oil prices. Services disinflation is expected to resume following the recent firmer monthly readings, reflecting the ongoing cooling in wage growth. Flash PMIs for November are expected to continue signalling modest growth. The Netherlands – On Tuesday, we expect Dutch CPI inflation to come in at 3.0% y/y for November, a marginal m/m decrease from 3.1% in October. While we continue to expect services inflation to resume its gradual trend down, it remains elevated. The contribution of food inflation to overall inflation also remains on the high side. China – November PMIs are expected to remain at relatively weak levels, confirming ongoing sluggish growth momentum amidst weakness on the demand side. The official manufacturing PMI is expected to stay in contraction territory, while the official non-manufacturing PMI is anticipated to stay close to the neutral mark separating expansion from contraction. The alternative PMIs published by RatingDog (with a stronger focus on export-oriented firms) are expected to remain a bit more upbeat, although RatingDog’s services PMI is projected to come down compared to its October reading.