The Week Ahead - 12 – 16 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US –We expect core and headline CPI in April to pick up again at 0.3% m/m, with some initial, but weak, impact from tariffs. Tariffs form Liberation Day on April 2nd were implemented quickly, so most of the month saw 10% tariffs on non-exempted goods, and much higher on Chinese goods. These readings would mean no further progress on the y/y rates. We expect retail sales to contract after last month's surge, while industrial production rebounds somewhat. Friday sees the initial release of University of Michigan inflation expectations for May, which have soared in recent month, although other measures of inflation expectations remain contained.
UK & Eurozone – Trade balance data for March will be interesting to watch for further signs of export front-loading to the US, which were already visible in the February data. UK GDP growth is expected to have significantly rebounded in Q1 to 0.7% q/q – well above trend. This is partly driven by the frontloading of exports to the US, but incoming consumption data has also been strong. Eurozone Q1 GDP is expected to be unrevised in the second reading at 0.4% q/q.
The Netherlands – The unemployment rate for April is expected to come in at 3.9%, thereby remaining unchanged from the March figure. Quarterly figures from the first quarter show that labour market tightness is decreasing further, from 1.07 to 1.01 vacancies per unemployed. Additionally, job growth declined for the first time since the pandemic. Despite the rising unemployment rate since the start of 2025, the labour market remains tight due to elevated labour demand, limited labour supply, and an ageing population.
China – CPI inflation is expected to remain close to zero and PPI inflation is expected to stay in negative territory, as the supply side remains stronger than the demand side – with the US tariff escalation in April causing an export shock. Over the weekend, US-China talks on a de-escalation of the trade war are scheduled to take place in Switzerland (also see ).