The Week Ahead - 13 - 17 October 2025

United States – Data releases this week are likely to be affected by the government shutdown. But that doesn't stop us from making forecasts for the releases that may potentially be released, or simply at a later time. The main one is the September CPI inflation reading. We expect core CPI to remain at 3.1% due to another 0.3% m/m reading. Some of the strong services reading in e.g. hotels and airfares might have come down a bit relative to last months. Meanwhile, headline is likely to come in at 0.4% m/m, raising the y/y rate to 3.1% as well. Later we expect retail sales to come in at 0.4%, partly pushed up by strong EV car sales before federal subsidies expire. Control group sales will be a bit slower at 0.3%. We expect industrial production later in the week to stay flat. On Tuesday, Powell will deliver a speech at the NABE annual conference. This is effectively the last chance to steer market expectations away from an October cut before the blackout period, and therefore vital for our expectations for the meeting at the end of this month. The Netherlands – We expect the unemployment rate for September to stay at 3.9%, after it edged up to 3.9% in August primarily driven by increased labour market participation with the participation rate (i.e. labour supply) reaching a new high. Still, forward-looking indicators suggest the labour market is losing some steam. China – Foreign trade data due on Monday are expected to show a pick-up in annual growth, as falling exports to the US are being offset by more exports to other destinations. On Wednesday, deflation in consumer and producer prices is expected to fade somewhat.