The Week Ahead - 17 - 21 November 2025

United States – All eyes are on data releases now that the government has reopened. It remains unclear how quickly releases will resume and when missed data will be filled in. On Wednesday, the FOMC will publish minutes from its October meeting, offering insight into the heated debate and differing views within the committee. With December “far from a foregone conclusion,” these minutes will be valuable, though Powell has already signaled growing divergence among members. The Netherlands – We expect the unemployment rate to stay at 4.0% in October, after rising by 0.1pp for two consecutive months to a 4-year high in September. The increase was primarily driven by more people entering the job market, reflecting an increase in labour supply. In Q3, labour market pressure eased further with the number of employed surpassing the number of vacancies for the first time in four years. While gradually edging up, the unemployment rate will remain low by historical standards and labour shortages remain the biggest constraint for businesses. China – Without recent action from the PBoC, we expect the 1-year loan prime rate to be kept at 3% on 20 November, in line with consensus. Still, going forward, we expect further piecemeal monetary easing (in the form of RRR cuts and mini policy rate cuts) alongside targeted fiscal support.