The Week Ahead - 2 - 6 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
United States – The main release next week is the labour market report on Friday. Our early nowcast points to payrolls again surprising to the upside at around 180k, although we will update the forecast early next week after the consumption report is in. Consistent with the solid payrolls gain, we expect the unemployment rate to stay steady at 4.2%. We expect hourly earnings to have gone up at about 0.3% m/m. Earlier in the week we get the ISM indices, which may show some pickup on the back of the de-escalation of the trade war with China.
Eurozone – The ECB is expected to lower the deposit rate by a further 25bp to 2%. A key focus this meeting will be the new staff projections. We are likely to see a downgrade to 2025 growth and inflation forecasts, which should pave the way for further rate cuts over the summer. HICP flash inflation for May is likely to show a renewed decline, with the headline moving lower on the back of falling petrol prices, while core inflation should also move lower as the Easter boost to services inflation unwinds.
Germany – German industrial production and factory order data for April is released next week. Industrial production saw a rise in Q1, likely on the back of trade frontloading. Indeed, German exports to the US, particularly in cars and pharmaceuticals, pushed up aggregate activity. We expect some payback to this in the April figure. Factory orders are expected to show a similar pattern. Both data series however are volatile on a monthly basis. Zooming out, the German industrial sector is showing signs of stabilization, at low levels, after a long period of contractions.
The Netherlands – The flash CPI estimate for May is expected to come in at 4.0% y/y, thereby showing a marginal decline after the pickup to 4.1% in April which was mostly due to seasonal effects from a changed timing of Easter in combination with an earlier May holiday. Generally, the May figure will still largely be driven by services, as well as some upward pressure from food and industrial good prices. On the other hand, energy will exert downward pressure. While inflation will decrease in the coming months, Dutch CPI remains above that of the eurozone.