The Week Ahead: 2-6 March 2026
These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
US - On Friday we get February non-farm payrolls. We expect jobs to be nearly flat at +15k, after last month's upside surprise. This is a combination of a bit of a reversal of last month's gain, and downward effects of bad weather at the start of the month. Unemployment likely stays constant at 4.3%. We expect the ISM manufacturing index to decline a bit to 51.2, reverting some, but not all, of the expansion signaled in January's remarkably strong reading.
Eurozone –Flash HICP inflation is expected to have edged higher in February, driven by pass-through from the rebound in oil to petrol prices, but core inflation is expected to hold steady. Retail sales are likely to rebound, reflecting the broad improvement in consumer sentiment and a gradually declining savings rate. German manufacturing orders are expected to register a pullback following recent very strong gains, but to remain at elevated levels, consistent with the improving backdrop for manufacturing.
China – Beijing’s 2026 policy targets and the Five-Year Plan will be presented to parliament (National People’s Congress), starting on March 5th. The 2026 growth target will likely be set at ‘a range of 4.5-5%’ or ‘around 5%’. We think Beijing will keep policy stimulus ‘targeted’. Policy makers are likely not in a hurry to radically step up macro support, as solid exports – amidst a firming global business cycle – keep safeguarding growth, and the truce with the US brought external stability. February PMIs are expected to show ongoing divergence between relatively strong outcomes from Ratingdog’s survey (with a larger focus on exporting firms) and relatively weak outcomes from the ‘official’ NBS survey (leaning more to large, state-owned companies).
