The Week Ahead - 20 - 24 October 2025

United States – Data releases this week are likely to be affected by the government shutdown, for which there is no end in sight. It seems like last week's CPI report is due to come out this week on Friday. We expect core CPI to remain at 3.1% due to another 0.3% m/m reading. Some of the strong services reading in e.g. hotels and airfares might have come down a bit relative to last months. Meanwhile, headline is likely to come in at 0.4% m/m, raising the y/y rate to 3.1% as well. Still, we do not expect these readings to deter the Fed from another 25bps cut in the next meeting. In any case, due to the start of the Fed's blackout period this Saturday, we will not get commentary from FOMC members on the inflation print. Eurozone – Flash PMIs for October are likely to indicate ongoing weakness in manufacturing, driven by falling export demand, partly (but not entirely) driven by US tariffs. A number of ECB speakers will hit the wires before the blackout period for the October Governing Council meeting begins on Thursday. We expect communication to continue signalling broad comfort with the current policy stance, in line with our view that the ECB will keep policy on hold from here but with an easing bias. China – We expect GDP growth in Q3 to have fallen to just below 5% y/y, broadly in line with consensus (Q2: 5.2%), as domestic demand has slowed over the summer. September activity data are generally expected to see a further slowdown in growth momentum compared to August, with fixed investment remaining particularly weak. Without recent action from the PBoC, we expect no change in the 1-year loan prime rate (3.00%) for now, in line with consensus.