The Week Ahead - 27 - 31 October 2025

United States – On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to lower the policy rate by 25 bps. The Fed is mostly flying blind with a lot of data unavailable due to the government shutdown, but at least they will have one additional CPI inflation reading due to some workers of the BLS being called in. There will still be some fierce debate internally, but we'll likely end up with a 25bps cut, and one dissent from Stephen Miran who prefers 50 bps. Markets have fully priced in this cut, and due to the blackout there is little room to move markets. Tomorrow’s CPI inflation release is unlikely to provide a strong enough signal to dissuade the Fed from cutting. On Thursday we get the first estimate of Q3 GDP, which we expect to come in at an annualized q/q rate of 2.9%, with substantial upside risk. On Friday, we expect both core and headline September PCE to come in at 0.3% m/m, but we will update these figures after the CPI release.

Eurozone – Q3 GDP is expected to post a flat reading, as weakness in exports to the US weighs further on the external sector, while the domestic economy has also lost some momentum based on incoming activity data. Inflation is expected to edge back down, driven by base effects in energy, while core inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.3%. The ECB is widely expected to keep policy on hold, and President Lagarde is likely to express continued comfort with the current policy stance.

The Netherlands – The Dutch head to the ballot box upcoming Wednesday 29th of October. The polls are signalling quite some shifts, with far-right PVV polling as election winner once again. GL-PvdA (centre-left) and CDA (centre-right) are in most recent polls contending for second place. JA21 (right-wing) and D66 (centre-liberal) show momentum. Negative momentum is visible at NSC (centre-right), the VVD (centre-right) and to a lesser extent the BBB (right). The coalition process is expected to be challenging once more, despite the fact that parties expressed their readiness to form a new coalition before Christmas. The party programmes share a consensus for large deficits, which puts longer term public finances under pressure. On Thursday, we expect Dutch GDP to come in at 0.2% q/q for Q3. The Dutch economy has gradually been losing momentum over the past four quarters, and we expect growth to be subdued in the near term before picking up in 2026. US tariffs are weighing on Dutch exports, while domestic demand by households (despite subdued consumer confidence) and the government is expected to carry growth. On Friday, we expect Dutch CPI to come in at 3.1% y/y for October, down from the upside surprise of 3.3% in September. While we expect services inflation to resume its gradual trend down, it remains on the high side. The contribution of food inflation to overall inflation also remains elevated.

Asia – The Bank of Japan will decide on monetary policy on Thursday 30 October. While we still have pencilled in a 25bp hike of the target rate for Q4-25, we expect the BoJ to stay on hold next week, in line with consensus expectations and market pricing.