The Week Ahead - 29 September - 3 October 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
United States – The main release in the upcoming week is the September labour market report. We expect nonfarm payrolls to come in at a moderate 55k, which would be consistent with the early signs of activity picking up in Q3, see also our Global Monthly. Government hiring will start to be a drag, with the first federal employees impacted by the Trump administration policies coming off of payrolls. Still, given limited labour supply growth, the overall job gains should be enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, and relieve some pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
Eurozone – Headline inflation is expected to pick up in September. Oil prices have been a touch firmer than expected recently, and given the sharp fall we saw in petrol prices in September last year, this base effect will temporarily push inflation higher. Food inflation is also likely to remain on the firmer side. In contrast, core inflation should remain well behaved. While the decline in services inflation is slowing, it remains on a downward trajectory, consistent with what we’re seeing in wages.
The Netherlands – CPI inflation for September is expected to slightly edge up compared to the previous month. Similar to the broader eurozone, the base effects of lower energy inflation in September 2024 are expected to temporarily lift the overall inflation figure. While the effects of the increased excise taxes on food inflation have largely disappeared, the contribution of food to overall inflation remains elevated. Services inflation, while still being on the high side, is gradually declining. Wage growth has already peaked but its effects still linger due to long-term collective labour agreements. Q3 2025 CLA wage growth, published on Thursday, is expected to reflect this trend.
China – The September PMIs due on Tuesday are generally expected to stay at relatively weak levels, particularly the official PMIs – in line with the slowing of growth momentum in Q3 reflecting a crackdown on overcapacity and a deepening property slump.