The Week Ahead - 30 June - 4 July 2025

United States – The main release next week is the labour market report on Friday. Our nowcast points to payrolls surprising to the upside at around 140k. The unemployment rate has been steadily but slowly increasing, and stood at 4.24% in May. It is likely to cross the boundary to 4.3% in June.

Eurozone – The ECB’s Sintra forum will be closely watched by financial markets, particularly whether Lagarde repeats her signals that the ECB is nearing the end of rate cuts. Flash HICP inflation is expected to edge slightly higher, driven by the recent rebound in petrol prices, while core inflation is also expected to pick up on a recovery in services inflation following the particularly weak reading in May. This pickup in inflation is likely to be short-lived. Further out, we expect headline inflation to fall below the ECB’s 2% target in the second half of 2025, with core inflation likely to resume its fall but hold at around 2%.

The Netherlands – Dutch inflation is expected to ease only slightly to 3.2% y/y from 3.3% in May. Amid a broader slow disinflationary trend it is an upward effect from energy prices and high food price inflation that continue to exert upward pressure, distorted slightly by the fading upward effect from VAT-changes. Zooming out, Dutch inflation is expected to continue outpacing eurozone inflation in the coming quarters.

China – Manufacturing PMIs for June are expected to show an improvement following the US-China truce reached in Geneva mid-May. That’s particularly true for Caixin’s index, which was hit hardest by the escalation of the trade war in April. Caixin’s survey has a relatively strong focus on export-oriented (private) firms. Meanwhile, services PMIs are expected to remain in expansion territory, although at relatively low levels by Chinese standards.