The Week Ahead - 9 - 13 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
United States – Wednesday sees the release of May CPI inflation figures. We expect core goods inflation to pick up, but the overall rate to be dampened by offsetting disinflation in core services, similar to last month. Core and headline CPI will come in at 0.2% and 0.1% m/m respectively, leading to y/y rates of 2.8% and 2.4%. Starting this weekend, the FOMC enters its blackout period before June 18th rate decision.
Eurozone – Trade data for April will be key to watch for signs of the first hit to exports following the US tariffs, with US data already showing a plunge in imports, and data from Germany and France showing m/m declines in exports. Likewise, industrial production is also likely to see some early impact from falling exports, with data from Germany and France showing declines of -1.4% m/m and -0.6% respectively.
China – Foreign trade data for May to be published on Monday will provide more insights to what extent exports are holding up following the US-China Geneva truce. Annual export growth is expected to slow somewhat, but not aggressively, with US-China container flows recovering in recent weeks. Imports are expected to remain in negative territory, partly reflecting still subdued domestic demand. CPI inflation is expected to remain near zero, while producer prices will likely remain clearly in deflation territory.