The Week Ahead: 9-13 March 2026

US - Next week we get February CPI figures, and January PCE inflation figures. We expect both headline and core CPI to come in at a relatively mild 0.2% m/m, keeping the y/y figures at their January level. while our nowcast for January PCE comes in hot at 0.4% m/m for the core, raising the y/y figure to 3.1%. Consumer spending will likely come in a bit weaker at 0.3%, while personal income growth might tick up.This weekend, the Fed enters its blackout period. In light of inflationary pressures from energy supply shocks, markets have been pricing out rate cuts for this year. Our base case already had the Fed on hold until at least June, and so we expect no impact on the March FOMC meeting.

Eurozone – Industrial production is likely to have rebounded in Germany and the broader eurozone, reflecting the recent recovery in domestic demand – especially from the defence sector in Germany. With that said, factory orders in Germany are likely to register a pullback in January following the surge in orders in the final months of 2025. Big picture, the manufacturing sector remains on a recovery path, notwithstanding the new headwinds from higher energy prices.

China – Consensus expectation including ours is for CPI inflation to have risen back to around 1% y/y in February on the back of Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday spending and base effects from a shifting LNY break, after a drop to 0.2% in January. Meanwhile, the annual decline in produces prices is expected to have eased further in February, partly on the back of rising commodity prices. Growth of exports (and in its slipstream imports) in January/February combined is expected to have accelerated compared to December, in line with a firming of the global business cycle led by a tech/AI boom.