UK Watch – Last chance for Remain?

The UK votes in a general election on 12 December. Polls point to a Conservative victory, but another hung parliament is also possible.In any case, the risk of a disorderly Brexit is now very low.With a Conservative majority, Brexit will take place as planned on 1 February. With another hung parliament, we expect a new referendum before end-2020.Growth is likely to remain subdued in the near-term, before picking up later next year on the back of higher government spending.We expect the Bank of England to keep policy on hold, but with the risk of a near-term 25bp cut.