Who are the EU's climate leaders and laggards?
We focus on a number of relevant climate indicators in the EU. Of the top ten largest emitters in the EU, Italy performs best on all economic climate indicators, while the Czech Republic still has a lot of work to do. What further stands out is the relatively low share of renewable energy in the energy mix of the Netherlands and also Belgium. Even though energy efficiency is on the rise in almost all countries of the top ten largest emitters, some countries - such as Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Belgium - are lagging.
The gap between EU-27 and global CO2 intensity narrowed significantly in 30 years
Of the top ten largest emitters in the EU, Italy performs best on many economic climate indicators, while the Czech Republic still lags behind
Energy saving and reduction is the most effective way to achieve EU climate ambitions of 2030 and beyond
Monitoring a wide range of climate indicators provides an opportunity to analyse the progress in decarbonisation more effectively. Moreover, it gives better insight into the challenges and opportunities in the transition to a greener economy. In this analysis, we provide insight into the trends of 12 (economically related) climate indicators of the ten largest CO2 emitters within the EU-27. This note shows which EU countries are ahead or behind the EU-27 average. Of the 12 indicators, achieving more energy efficiency is probably the most effective way to reach the higher-level targets of the EU climate plan. After all, energy efficiency is the best way to both combat energy waste and reduce CO2 emissions.
CO2 intensity in EU-27
An analysis on emissions intensity is considered less informative by some climate experts because such a measure still allows for an increase in absolute emissions. This is because emissions are related to, for example, output, value added or a country's population. However, the positive aspect of the measure is also that it provides reliable insights into the position of countries relative to each other and trends over the years.
From the figures below, we see, among other things, that global CO2 intensity is lower for the indicator CO2 emissions per capita, but higher for CO2 emissions by value added (CO2). Global CO2 emissions per capita actually increased by 13% over the period 1990-2021, while global CO2 emissions to GDP decreased by 36%. This is partly because global GDP growth has increased 6-7 times faster than population over the past 30 years. For the EU-27 average, the aforementioned two indicators fell by 31% and 55% respectively over the same period. Thus, the gap with global intensity has narrowed.
From the two figures it becomes clear that the cloud with points has become more concentrated in the lower-left corner towards 2021. This is a positive trend, as it shows that with more economic growth, for example, less CO2 emissions are involved. A few outliers stand out. For instance, Luxembourg and Estonia are the outliers in terms of CO2 intensity in both 1990 and 2021. However, both countries have seen substantial reductions in intensity. In 1990, Portugal was the outlier at the bottom, but fortunately several countries joined in 2021.
Despite being among the leaders in terms of the most number of solar panels per capita in 2021, the Netherlands still scores just above the EU-27 average when it comes to CO2 emissions per capita. Fortunately, compared to 1990, this is only a slight deterioration. However, the Netherlands is among the countries with the highest CO2 emissions by GDP in both 1990 and 2021. Again, the 2021 position is slightly worse compared to 1990.
EU-27 climate indicators
A climate indicator is a measure used to assess climate change in terms of trends and variability. Well-known indicators in this context are rising sea levels, ocean warming, extreme weather events and also the rise in average surface temperature. They help to better visualise climate risks globally. But valuable insights can also be gained from more economically oriented country-by-country indicators, which provide signals about future emissions and hence climate change. They allow a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing the transition to a greener economy. The table below shows the trends of some 12 climate indicators for the ten largest emitters of CO2 in the EU-27.
Out of 120 graphs, 46 are coloured red (38%), meaning the trend or position is more negative compared to the EU-27 average. A total of 48 graphs are coloured green (positive, 40%) and 26 orange (neutral, 22%). Of the top three largest emitters, Italy stands out the most. On none of the mentioned indicators is the graph in red and they are predominantly green coloured graphs. And similarly, under the 'CO2 per GDP' indicator, no graph is in red. The ten largest emitters show positive to neutral trends in this indicator. The negative trends in this indicator can be found among the 17 other EU-27 countries.
Among the top ten largest emitters, the Czech Republic performs relatively poorly on all indicators. Especially in energy efficiency, the country does not show good results. What further stands out is the relatively low share of renewable energy in the energy mix of the Netherlands and also Belgium. And that in itself is strange, as both countries are also in the top five countries with the most solar panels per capita. Despite energy productivity (or efficiency) showing an upward trend in almost all countries of the top ten largest emitters, the indicator's position is some countries - such as Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Belgium - are still well below the EU-27 average. Monitoring the trend in this indicator is most relevant.
Energy efficiency is among the top targets
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis made the tightening of the EU's existing energy efficiency directives much more urgent, together with the switch to more renewables. Wasting energy simply could no longer be allowed. Moreover, achieving greater energy efficiency is probably the most cost-effective way to achieve multiple goals simultaneously. Not only does it reduce emissions, but it also improves energy security, helps increase competitiveness and ultimately makes energy consumption more affordable for all end users. Greater energy efficiency is thus one of the most important factors in the EU's long-term energy and climate goals.
Energy efficiency means using less energy to perform the same activities. In very concrete terms, it means reducing energy waste. There are many opportunities for efficiency improvements in almost every sector of the economy. These could include the agricultural sector, buildings, transport, industry or power generation. In EU-27, energy efficiency (final energy consumption to GDP) has only improved over the past 20 years. Since the year 2000, energy efficiency has increased by 87%, driven by an almost stable trend in final energy consumption and an 85% increase in value added (GDP) in the EU-27.
Looking forward, it remains important to reduce energy consumption in Europe. That is why the European Commission (EC) increased its energy efficiency ambition with the presentation of the REPowerEU plan (in May 2022). The main aim of the tightening was to make the EU less dependent on fossil fuel imports from Russia. As energy saving and reduction is the most effective way to achieve this ambition, the EC proposed to increase the binding EU energy efficiency target from 9% to 13% compared to the baseline for 2020. This amounts to 980 Mtoe for primary energy consumption and 750 Mtoe for final energy consumption in 2030, respectively. From the 2021 level of final energy consumption, this means a reduction of another 23% until 2030, or about 2.5% reduction in consumption per year. At first glance, this target seems achievable. Only the historical trend shows that over the past 20 years, final energy consumption has been relatively erratic and the annual average change has remained stable. It indicates that achieving this new target also adds another challenge to the overall EU climate plan.