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The Netherlands - A new energy shock while still digesting the former
- Macro economy
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The fallout from the war in the Middle East means we have adjusted our forecasts. We have slightly downgraded our 2026 growth forecast, while upgrading our inflation forecast. We now expect growth in 2026 to average 1.5% (was 1.6%), and 1.2% in 2026 (was 1.4%). The uncertainty around inflation is high with an upgraded forecast of 2.8% in 2026 (was 2.2%). While the timing of the energy shock is unfavourable the economy is resilient.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
The Netherlands - Minority coalition agreement is all about defence
- Macro economy
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A strong second half of 2025 and strong momentum at the start of the year means we upgrade our growth forecasts to 1.6% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.3% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2025. The incoming minority government is ramping up defence spending, while keeping its finances in check. Plans are nowhere near final though, as they hinge on opposition support.
