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Macro Watch - Global trade and manufacturing keep expanding on AI/tech boom

Global manufacturing PMI climbs to highest level since early 2022. The global AI/tech cycle is lifting all boats. Improvements seen at both the demand and the supply side. Global trade keeps expanding driven by the global AI boom and other special factors. Supply bottlenecks do not show signs of easing.

France: Not yet a crisis, but pressure is building

France’s bond market stress has escalated sharply in recent days. In this first in a series of notes, we lay out the current state of fiscal play, previewing what to expect from the 2027 budget negotiations as well as next year’s presidential election. France faces a toxic combination of rising interest rates, weak growth, political paralysis, and limited room to raise revenues. PM Lecornu has announced a €54bn fiscal effort (1.7% of GDP) with the goal of containing the deficit to 5% of GDP for 2027. Fiscal consolidation is likely to be considerably diluted, but we do expect a 2027 budget to be pushed through in some form this year. Le Pen continues to lead polling for the 2027 presidential election. Despite attempts to convince markets she is a fiscal hawk, generous promises around pensions continue to suggest otherwise.

US Watch - Weak job growth takes off the pressure

Eurozone inflation hits 3 year high; 4%+ by year-end

Eurozone inflation jumped to a three year high of 3.8% y/y in September, up 0.6pp from the 3.2% reading in August. This was a bigger rise than both we (3.6%) and consensus (3.7%) had expected. Energy was by far the biggest contributor, jumping to 18.8% y/y from 14.3% in August. We do not yet have the full details but the rise in energy was likely driven largely by petrol and diesel prices, as well as the more gradual pass-through of higher gas and electricity prices to household energy bills. While we had expected a big jump in energy, the rise was even bigger than our expectations and indications suggest this was driven by earlier pass-through to heating oil from the very elevated wholesale diesel prices at present.

FX Weekly - Higher rates support the dollar

US dollar gained 1.0–2.4% since 17 September against major currencies. Wider US interest-rate differentials have driven the dollar rally. EUR/USD fell by more than 3% from 1.17. The next key downside level is 1.10. Downside in EUR/USD is protected but the upside is constrained. We maintain our EUR/USD forecast of 1.15 for end 2026

Housing market monitor - Better in 2026, sharper cooling in 2027

We expect house prices to rise by 3.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. The number of transactions falls by 0.5% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027. The housing market did better than expected in the first half of 2026. But rising mortgage rates and uncertainty are cooling the market. Despite this cooling, we do not expect house prices to fall.

Despite the Iran war, industry growth is picking up again

Conditions for the Dutch manufacturing sector have further improved, according to the Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 53.8 to 55.6 in September. Both production and the volume of new orders rose at a rapid pace.

Offshore wind energy is growing rapidly, but the business case remains a challenge

Offshore wind energy has grown rapidly over the past ten years. For example, global capacity has increased by 671% since 2015. At the same time, the average cost of electricity from wind energy has fallen by almost 57%. These are impressive figures, but pressure on the sector is mounting. Material and project costs are rising, interest rates remain relatively high, and the supply chain is facing increasing geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, the EU’s targets for offshore wind energy remain ambitious for the coming years. In this analysis, we examine the growth in offshore wind energy in greater depth, including the key challenges, and assess whether the EU targets are still achievable. The potential for growth in offshore wind is high globally. However, the feasibility of projects depends on cost trends, grid infrastructure, financing conditions and policy certainty. These issues are explored in further detail in this analysis.

Transaction Trends - Drivers are buying less fuel and watching their spending

Fuel prices have risen this year due to higher fuel excise duties and the war in Iran. Drivers are reducing fuel consumption in response to higher prices. Since March, consumption has been approximately 12% lower than a year earlier. As a result, the increase in fuel spending was limited to 6% year on year. Drivers in lower-income groups and urban areas reduced their fuel consumption relatively strongly. Growth in non-fuel spending among drivers is as high as among other households. However, it differs by income: growth is lower among lower-income groups.

Japan - The BoJ carries on

Q2 GDP and monthly data point to strengthening growth momentum, …although risks stem from larger and longer energy shocks, rising interest rates, frictions with China and a potential slowing of the AI boom. Inflation driven up by energy shock, AI boom, and stronger wage growth. Regime shift 1: Rate hike path BoJ (we expect another hike tomorrow) and QT (although moderated) a key factor pushing up bond yields… Regime shift 2: … and so is PM Takaichi’s more expansive fiscal stance. JGB yields continued to increase, as the curve bear flattened in recent months. Lower hedging costs will only provide a small relief for OATs. Joint FX intervention countered yen weakness… but a structural shift in rate spreads and investor behaviour crucial for further yen recovery.. We expect sideways movement in the yen in the coming months and a further recovery towards the end of 2027.