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Global economic forecasts as of 22 April 2026
- Macro economy
-
Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China - A tale of resilience, Iran risks and chokepoints
- Macro economy
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Real GDP accelerated a bit in Q1, as expected, but risks from the Middle East still loom. March macro data already show some impact of the Iran conflict. Blockage of energy chokepoint Strait of Hormuz is a test for US-China relations.
US - Two supply shocks, one inflation problem
- Macro economy
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Demand remains solid in the aggregate, and the labour market stays in its odd equilibrium. All eyes are on the inflation impact of the energy shock, but disinflation prospects were already limited.
The Netherlands - A tailored support package
- Macro economy
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While downside risks have clearly increased, we expect Q1 GDP to come in at 0.4% q/q. The Dutch cabinet has proposed various measures to support households and companies. The risk of second round effects on wages and inflation is bigger for the Netherlands. Rather than rising, the new bout of inflation will mean purchasing power stagnates in 2026.
Eurozone - The ECB can afford to wait, for now
- Macro economy
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Governments are taking the edge off the energy shock, but inflation is still yet to reach a peak. Still, even a more negative inflation shock is likely to be an order of magnitude smaller than in 2022-23. Hard data suggests a tepid start to the year, and likely downside risks to our 0.2% Q1 growth forecast. Even hawkish Governing Council members seem minded to hold rates at the 30 April ECB meeting, leading us to push back our call for hikes to June and July.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz stand-off
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict has morphed from a hot war to an economic one, with both sides using the Hormuz chokepoint as negotiation leverage. Energy supply disruptions are bigger than ever, but market worries have subsided, with peace efforts given the benefit of the doubt. We make only incremental forecast adjustments this month, keeping our core view that severe energy disruptions persist to end-May. We also update our more positive and negative scenarios for the conflict.
Key views Global Monthly April 2026
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict is triggering a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will go on for, but our new base case assumes severe disruptions last until the end of May. The inflation shock will outweigh the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs will remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.
From Hormuz to the Pump - Fuel Tourism in the Belgian Border Region
- Macro economy
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Due to the war in Iran, fuel prices have shot up, while gasoline prices in Belgium are up to 55 cents per liter lower. As a result, about 15% of gasoline consumption in the border region has shifted to Belgium, a change largely caused by a relatively small share of households. This effect is consistent for households living up to 30 kilometers from the border, meaning that not only gas stations near the border but also those further away may experience revenue losses. Nevertheless, the overall nationwide loss of excise tax revenue for the government remains limited.
Iran ceasefire - Is this a turning point?
- Natural resources
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A two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran offers a welcome pause and the prospect of renewed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. But much uncertainties remain, leaving risks of renewed disruption firmly on the horizon.
Global industry impacted by Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI comes down again in March on escalation of Iran conflict. Relatively strong readings for developed economies flattered by rising delivery times. These are indicative for a broad re-emergence of supply bottlenecks, and rising inflationary pressures.
