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FX Weekly - Energy prices back in focus
- Macro economy
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The euro’s sensitivity to energy prices has shifted, but the recent rise in energy prices has again weighed on the currency. Financial markets are testing how far the authorities will tolerate yen weakness. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25 bp and signalled that further rate hikes are likely.
Global industry and trade quite resilient, partly helped by AI boom
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI drops a bit in June, but remains well in expansion mode. Decline in June driven by advanced economies. Global trade accelerated in early 2026, supported by AI boom, slowed during Iran conflict. Delivery times and container tariffs have driven our global supply bottlenecks index higher. Price subindices ease on falling energy prices in June, but stay relatively high for now.
FX Weekly - Heightened risk of intervention in the yen
- Macro economy
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Option-market signals suggest EUR/USD may struggle to stay below 1.1350. USD/JPY was near multi-decade highs and this raises intervention risk. The market is long dollars and heavily short yen, making a sharp reversal possible. EUR/USD forecasts trimmed slightly. We still expect dollar weakness, but now see EUR/USD at 1.18 by end-2026 and 1.23 by end-2027.
Key Views Global Monthly July 2026
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of a succession of shocks. With the latest energy shock now fading, a capex troika centred around AI, defence and the energy transition are likely to drive growth going forward. This is likely to support growth at roughly around trend rates in advanced economies over the coming quarters. The global investment surge is also supporting growth in China, the economy of which remains nonetheless imbalanced to the point that it is engendering new trade tensions with the EU. Against this backdrop, inflation will remain somewhat elevated over the coming months, and this should keep central banks leaning hawkish, with the ECB expected to raise rates one last time in September. Both central banks are then expected to resume rate cuts in early 2027.
Global economic forecasts as of 2 July 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China: Balance of risks improves; imbalances get worse
- Macro economy
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Hit from energy shock offset by strong exports on the back of global tech/AI boom. China managed energy shock quite well; officially reported oil imports sharply down in April/May. Balance of risks to our growth forecasts is improving, but supply-demand imbalances are rising.
US - Hawk at the summit, Dove on the horizon
- Macro economy
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Inflation has increased on the back of the energy shock, but is expected to decrease from here. Labour market strength is overstated due to frontloaded hiring in services, causing a drag on Q3 hiring.
The Netherlands - The Harry Styles effect
- Macro economy
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Q1 GDP upwardly revised to 0.2% q/q. We expect growth to average 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. CPI inflation rose sharply to 3.5% y/y in May, largely driven by airfares and accommodation. With Prinsjesdag (Budget Day) approaching, attention is turning to purchasing power support.
Germany - Political uncertainty keeps weighing on economy
- Macro economy
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The economy is stabilizing but remains fragile, with inflation above target. Some progress on pension reforms, but internal tensions persist. Rising political risks and uncertainty due to voter dissatisfaction.
Eurozone: The energy shock is dragging – and driving – consumption
- Macro economy
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Surging EV sales suggest consumption was not only hindered, but also helped by the energy shock. With the energy shock fading, consumer confidence is likely to recover, further helping consumption. The ECB is still expected to hike once more in September, with rate cuts expected in Q2-Q3 2027.
