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2021 results
Top of Mind - Optimism and worry in Bangkok
- Macro economy
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I spent the last week at the Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok attending a wide variety of meetings. The ability of the global economy to withstand shocks was a key theme of the meetings, and most expected this to continue. Worries about the risks remained, from the sustainability of the AI capex cycle, to geopolitics, rising interest rates and sovereign debt. AI capex would remain strong, but there was a general agreement that the scale of capex did not justify the revenues that would be generated. Although flagged as a risk, geopolitics may now be an underrated one and turn out to be ‘the boy who cried wolf’. Most saw the rise in bond yields as being the markets re-evaluating r* but there was lively debate on this topic. France was seen as the major sovereign risk, though the degree of concern varied, while it was agreed that interventions were unlikely.
China: Growth improves, imbalances remain
- Macro economy
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Real GDP growth picks up moderately in Q3, in line with our forecast. September data confirm pick-up of growth momentum during summer. Supply-demand imbalances do not show signs of easing.
From grid ambition to grid reality: Europe’s utility challenge
- Macro economy
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Europe’s energy transition has entered a grid-delivery phase, with networks now a key constraint on renewable growth and electrification. Utility pressures vary: DSOs face load-driven connection backlogs, TSOs need to reinforce networks for offshore wind, and solar-heavy systems require more storage and flexibility. A grid-stress index is constructed to compare transmission, distribution, market and adequacy pressures across a sample of nine European countries. Germany records the highest grid-stress score, driven by congestion costs, reliability pressures, negative-price hours and substation overload. Faster permitting, anticipatory investment, early equipment procurement and grid-specific skills are essential to turn spending plans into operational capacity. Europe’s competitiveness depends on timely commissioning and lower total system costs - not simply on the amount of grid investment announced.
FX Weekly - Recovery of the Swiss franc
- Macro economy
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Interest rate spreads continue to drive EUR/USD. The focus has shifted from the US to eurozone. The Swiss franc is a useful indicator of shifts in market risk sentiment. Eurozone political and fiscal risks are supporting the franc.
Carbon Capture and Storage: what does the future hold?
- Macro economy
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Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is increasingly viewed as a necessary complement to energy efficiency and renewable energy in achieving net zero-emissions. The EU has acknowledged this role by establishing a certification framework for carbon removals, carbon farming and carbon storage in products. Global CCS deployment is projected to increase from 60 MtCO2/year today to 2.6 GtCO2/year in 2060. Today, around 85% of installed CCS capacity is linked to natural gas processing, but the sector is expected to shift towards other hard-to-abate industries by mid-century. Europe is expected to emerge as one of the world’s leading CCS markets, driven by rising carbon prices, industrial carbonization needs and growing transport and storage infrastructure.
Key Views Global Monthly October 2026
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of a succession of shocks. While the energy shock is back with a vengeance, its effects are more idiosyncratic now, and more impactful for Europe than the US. Meanwhile, a capex troika centred around AI, defence and the energy transition are continuing to drive growth, which is expected to hold roughly around trend rates in advanced economies. The global investment surge is also supporting growth in China, although imbalances there continue to fan trade tensions with the EU. Against this backdrop, inflation will remain somewhat elevated over the coming months, and this should keep central banks leaning hawkish, with the ECB, Fed and BoE expected to raise rates further. Our base case sees central banks resuming rate cuts in late 2027.
China - Growth momentum improves; more targeted support coming
- Macro economy
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Some signs of improving growth momentum, as fiscal support is filtering through. Beijing comes with some additional targeted support measures to safeguard growth. Trump and Xi preserving the guardrails; EU-China trade relations at a critical juncture.
US - Narrower inflation, broader hiring
- Macro economy
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The downward revision of PCE inflation exceeded expectations, and showed pressures narrowing. The labour market is solid, but not hot. Hiring is becoming less concentrated. The latest data gives no urgency for the Fed to hike, and we continue to see one last hike in December.
The Netherlands - Resilient growth meets persistent bottlenecks
- Macro economy
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With GDP growth in H1-26 outperforming earlier estimates, we raised our 2026 forecast to 1.5%. Growth will moderate in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, but is still solid. Inflation is on the rise and will exceed 3% for the fifth year in a row this year.
Eurozone - Rising bond yields temper the ECB’s rate hike pace
- Macro economy
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September PMIs point to strong growth momentum, though this is unlikely to be sustained. Spain’s election impact limited in the near-term; tighter immigration could weigh in the medium term. Rising (French) bond yields are tempering the pace, but we still expect two more hikes from the ECB.
