Our research
Access all our publications and columns. Use the filters to easily find what content you are looking for.
Filters
All publications
1976 results
Gas Market Strategist - Tight supply and thin storage set the stage for a tough winter
- Macro economy
-
European gas prices hover above EUR 70/MWh amid geopolitical disruption, low storage and intensifying LNG competition. EU storage stands at 65%, well below 82% average, and may reach only 75% by November. Lost Qatari LNG is only partly offset, leaving Europe without a sufficient operational supply buffer. Europe–Asia LNG competition is set to intensify, keeping prices high and volatile. Low storage leaves Europe exposed to cold winter or unplanned US and Norwegian disruptions which could trigger shortages and renewed price spikes. Prices may ease to EUR 45-50/MWh in Q4 if Hormuz reopens; prolonged closure implies EUR 70-80/MWh.
Supply shortage keeps oil and product prices firm
- Macro economy
-
Oil prices have rebounded after tensions escalated and flows through the Strait have declined. The price impact has been limited by alternative export routes, dark transits, ship-to-ship transfers and high US oil production but crucially also lower demand. Oil demand declined by 6.8 million barrels per day between end-2025 and June 2026, with China and Asia accounting for most of the fall. A near-term deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily lower oil prices, but the market is still expected to remain tight. Later in the year, recovering Asian demand, higher refinery activity and the need to rebuild low inventories are expected to support higher oil prices before a more sustainable decline next year. Because of a near-term deal some refinery capacity will likely come back online. But constrained refinery capacity, and higher demand for products will keep prices elevated.
FX Weekly - Policy risks for the dollar
- Macro economy
-
FX options markets signalled renewed dollar strength. Markets viewed Warsh’s message as hawkish, raising the probability of a September Fed rate hike to over 65% and supporting the dollar. Dollar strength may prove temporary if the Fed keeps rates unchanged…and/or if higher US yields mainly reflect deficit concerns and a higher risk premium. No Fed rate hike and a possible Bank of Japan rate hike in September could support the yen.
Dutch manufacturing sector sees strong increase in exports
- Macro economy
-
The Dutch manufacturing industry continues to grow steadily. Both production and the number of new orders increased again at a steady pace in August compared to the previous month.
FOMC Watch – Warsh doubles down, risks crying wolf
- Macro economy
-
Kevin Warsh just held a critically important speech at Jackson Hole. Warsh was under pressure, predominantly because of his failure to communicate clearly in the latest FOMC press conference, where he failed to explain why the FOMC held rates steady, despite three dissents, and where he failed to give a clear inflation target. Markets were looking for a clear inflation target, and a framework for understanding his reaction function. He delivered only partially.
Location choice datacenters constrained by power, water, space and public support
- Macro economy
-
Data centers are an indispensable pillar of the digital economy, but their rapid growth also raises questions. And this growth continues, including in the EU. This analysis shows which European countries are best positioned to attract new data centers. To that end, we examine both current and future data center capacity. We address the challenges, both in terms of power grids and investments and costs. This analysis shows how the AI boom, high costs, fragmented EU regulations, and increasingly scarce space are making the choice of location for data centers increasingly complex. We provide insight into the factors that determine data center developers’ site selection, and which EU member states are relatively well-positioned based on these criteria.
FOMC Watch – Warsh’s Jackson Hole Debut
- Macro economy
-
Kevin Warsh will give his first Jackson Hole speech on Friday. First speeches are typically used by new Fed Chairs to outline, or at least hint at, their doctrine. Warsh could use that reset. Jackson Hole occurs at a pivotal moment with the Fed and Treasury seemingly pushing in opposite directions, with heightened term premia as a result.
The economic impact of a hotter Europe
- Macro economy
-
The summer of 2026 has so far been exceptionally warm and dry, with wildfires spreading across large parts of Europe. Recent indicators of land temperatures, drought conditions and wildfire activity are significantly exceeding longer-term trends. Moreover, economic losses associated with heatwaves, droughts and wildfires have risen steadily over time. In this note, we estimate the economic losses incurred across Europe during the summer of 2026, and we also consider what these developments may imply for the Netherlands. Finally, we examine the implications of these extreme weather events for energy markets.
FX Weekly - Pressure on the dollar builds
- Macro economy
-
US dollar sentiment is weakening, as US Treasury yields have been volatile and fiscal concerns remain elevated. The Treasury’s larger buyback programme has not reassured markets, and investors still worry about US debt dynamics and rising risk premia. The euro has benefited from dollar weakness, and further dollar downside could support EUR/USD. EUR/PLN has moved higher as central bank expectations diverge, with the NBP seen as potentially more dovish while the ECB is expected to hike once more.
Transaction Trends - How the Dutch spend their week
- Macro economy
-
Dutch consumer spending follows a stable weekly pattern. Saturday is consistently the busiest day, while Sunday and Monday are consistently the quietest days. This pattern differs significantly across age groups: younger Dutch consumers tend to spend most on Saturdays and show only a limited decline on Sundays, whereas older consumers spend the most on Fridays and experience a much sharper decline in spending on Sundays. It is this predictability that makes transaction data valuable as an economic indicator: deviations from the normal weekly spending pattern can provide an early signal of changes in consumer behavior.
