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ESg Economist - Higher material costs for clean tech put pressure on the transition
- Natural resources
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In the transition to a climate-neutral economy, the need for low-carbon technologies will increase further, which will also increase demand for the metals that are essential for manufacturing these technologies. It therefore remains important to continue to monitor trends in this area in order to gain a clear picture of the opportunities and risks. The energy transition is putting increasing pressure on many metal markets. Increasingly, quantities of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium will be needed in the coming years. In some cases, this will lead to shortages, but in most cases, supply will be more than sufficient to meet demand. In this analysis, we highlight a number of dominant critical or strategic metals that are necessary and, above all, indispensable in the energy transition. We distinguish between ‘required’ transition metals (the truly indispensable metals) and the ‘relevant’ transition metals (slightly less indispensable). We show which metals are particularly important for the production of four main clean technologies and calculate the impact of the trend in metal prices on the material costs for producing these clean technologies. Finally, we look at how demand for these metals is expected to develop in the coming years in various IEA scenarios and what influence could the supply-demand balance of these metals have on the price trend for energy transition metals. We end this analysis with a conclusion.
Top of Mind - Will the rising euro trigger ECB cuts? Probably not
- Macro economy
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The euro has broken the 1.20 mark vs the dollar in recent days, having risen around 4% over the past week. This has prompted speculation – helped by remarks of some Governing Council members – that the ECB might have to cut rates at some point to offset the tightening of financial conditions that comes with a rising euro. So far, at least, this looks unlikely given the type of move we have seen in the euro.
The Week Ahead - 26 - 31 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Oil Market Monitor - Geopolitics drive volatility amid supply glut
- Natural resources
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The downward trend in oil prices was reversed in 2026 as markets responded to rapid geopolitical developments. The overthrow of Venezuela's leadership, new U.S. sanctions on Iran, ongoing threats against the Iranian regime, and the slow progress in peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine have all contributed to an increase in the geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude prices. Despite these pressures, the surplus in oil supply has helped to cap further price increases. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has maintained its decision to pause production increases for the first quarter of the year. Global demand has proven more resilient than anticipated, though the outlook remains clouded by growing tensions between the U.S. and the EU over Greenland, including the potential for new U.S. tariffs and possible EU retaliation. Given the rising geopolitical uncertainties and the dynamic nature of recent events, we choose to leave our outlook unchanged for now. At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading at $64.1 per barrel.
Global economic forecasts as of 21 January 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China - Exports support growth, supply-demand imbalances still rising
- Macro economy
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Real GDP growth slowed to 3-year low of 4.5% y/y in Q4 as expected, annual growth of 5% ‘on target’. Divergence remains: Exports and industrial production solid, offsetting weak investment and retail sales. Risks around fragile US-China truce resurface; targeted support shifts from consumption to investment.
US - Post-shutdown data fails to fully clear the fog
- Macro economy
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Post-shutdown data shows a further discrepancy between headline growth and the labour market. Inflation has been mixed, with surprisingly low shutdown period data, followed by a sharp rebound. We see a simple reorientation towards more productive sectors as the most likely explanation.
Germany - An important year for the country
- Macro economy
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The German economy grew by 0.2% q/q in Q4, landing the annual average for 2025 at 0.3%. We expect government spending alongside other factors to drive an increase in growth to 0.9% in 2026. Recent news on delays to government investment and tariffs introduce downside risks to the forecast.
The Netherlands - Heading for a minority government
- Macro economy
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We see the Dutch economy’s growth cooling from 1.7% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026, and slightly recovering to 1.4% in 2027; private and public consumption is expected to contribute significantly. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.4% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2025. The Netherlands is likely to have a minority government, led by D66, VVD, and CDA, with Rob Jetten anticipated as Prime Minister. While policy uncertainty may decrease, compromises with opposition parties will remain essential due to the lack of majority in both parliament and senate.
Eurozone - The fragile recovery
- Macro economy
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Consumption and industry are continuing to recover, despite the looming new risks to the outlook. The likely passage of a 2026 budget in France is also a welcome development. We do not expect a lasting solution to France’s fiscal woes, but nor do we expect the country to descend into a crisis. Eurozone inflation remains well behaved, likely keeping the ECB on hold for the foreseeable future. But persistent undershoots in France and Italy are a cause for concern.
