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Oil Market Monitor - Geopolitics drive volatility amid supply glut
- Natural resources
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The downward trend in oil prices was reversed in 2026 as markets responded to rapid geopolitical developments. The overthrow of Venezuela's leadership, new U.S. sanctions on Iran, ongoing threats against the Iranian regime, and the slow progress in peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine have all contributed to an increase in the geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude prices. Despite these pressures, the surplus in oil supply has helped to cap further price increases. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has maintained its decision to pause production increases for the first quarter of the year. Global demand has proven more resilient than anticipated, though the outlook remains clouded by growing tensions between the U.S. and the EU over Greenland, including the potential for new U.S. tariffs and possible EU retaliation. Given the rising geopolitical uncertainties and the dynamic nature of recent events, we choose to leave our outlook unchanged for now. At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading at $64.1 per barrel.
Global economic forecasts as of 21 January 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China - Exports support growth, supply-demand imbalances still rising
- Macro economy
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Real GDP growth slowed to 3-year low of 4.5% y/y in Q4 as expected, annual growth of 5% ‘on target’. Divergence remains: Exports and industrial production solid, offsetting weak investment and retail sales. Risks around fragile US-China truce resurface; targeted support shifts from consumption to investment.
US - Post-shutdown data fails to fully clear the fog
- Macro economy
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Post-shutdown data shows a further discrepancy between headline growth and the labour market. Inflation has been mixed, with surprisingly low shutdown period data, followed by a sharp rebound. We see a simple reorientation towards more productive sectors as the most likely explanation.
Germany - An important year for the country
- Macro economy
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The German economy grew by 0.2% q/q in Q4, landing the annual average for 2025 at 0.3%. We expect government spending alongside other factors to drive an increase in growth to 0.9% in 2026. Recent news on delays to government investment and tariffs introduce downside risks to the forecast.
The Netherlands -- Heading into budget and election season
- Macro economy
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We see the Dutch economy’s growth cooling from 1.7% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026, and slightly recovering to 1.4% in 2027; private and public consumption is expected to contribute significantly. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.4% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2025. The Netherlands is likely to have a minority government, led by D66, VVD, and CDA, with Rob Jetten anticipated as Prime Minister. While policy uncertainty may decrease, compromises with opposition parties will remain essential due to the lack of majority in both parliament and senate.
Eurozone - The fragile recovery
- Macro economy
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Consumption and industry are continuing to recover, despite the looming new risks to the outlook. The likely passage of a 2026 budget in France is also a welcome development. We do not expect a lasting solution to France’s fiscal woes, but nor do we expect the country to descend into a crisis. Eurozone inflation remains well behaved, likely keeping the ECB on hold for the foreseeable future. But persistent undershoots in France and Italy are a cause for concern.
Spotlight - Geopolitical risk is back with a vengeance
- Macro economy
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Geopolitical risks have flared up in a dramatic fashion at the start of the year. We present a framework to analyse the main channels of impact for the economy. The Greenland dispute risks escalating economic warfare between the EU and the US and an undermining of NATO, while the risks surrounding Iran revolve around oil supply. Threats to Fed independence could destabilise inflation expectations, but Chair Powell remains defiant.
Global Monthly - Orange is the new Green
- Macro economy
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Geopolitical risk is increasingly dominating the outlook. The US-EU dispute over Greenland threatens a new tariff war – or worse. Over the next month, we will see just how far Trump is prepared to go to obtain Greenland, and whether Europe can stand its ground. We refrain from changing our base case given the fluidity of events, but uncertainty is clearly back with a vengeance, and the outlook less benign. Spotlight: We present a framework to analyse the main channels through which geopolitical risk impacts the economy.
Key views Global Monthly January 2026
- Macro economy
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The transition from one world order to another is in full swing, but it is still unclear how that new world order will look. The advent of AI, China’s rise, and the US’s relative decline offer challenges but also opportunities. Tariffs have made a comeback as threat to the outlook, driven by the transatlantic dispute over Greenland. Still, global growth has been resilient given the headwinds. Our base case sees that resilience continuing, albeit with considerable risks. Growth in the US is expected to stay solid, but this masks variation and vulnerability below the surface. Eurozone growth is expected to pick up on higher German fiscal spending, while China may take modest measures to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact. Inflation in the US is expected to continue accelerating, but to stay broadly benign in the eurozone. Despite this, the divergence in Fed & ECB rates is expected to narrow significantly, with the ECB expected to keep rates on hold and the Fed ‘looking through’ the US inflation overshoot by continuing to cut rates.
