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FX Weekly - Heightened risk of intervention in the yen
- Macro economy
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Option-market signals suggest EUR/USD may struggle to stay below 1.1350. USD/JPY was near multi-decade highs and this raises intervention risk. The market is long dollars and heavily short yen, making a sharp reversal possible. EUR/USD forecasts trimmed slightly. We still expect dollar weakness, but now see EUR/USD at 1.18 by end-2026 and 1.23 by end-2027.
Key Views Global Monthly July 2026
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of a succession of shocks. With the latest energy shock now fading, a capex troika centred around AI, defence and the energy transition are likely to drive growth going forward. This is likely to support growth at roughly around trend rates in advanced economies over the coming quarters. The global investment surge is also supporting growth in China, the economy of which remains nonetheless imbalanced to the point that it is engendering new trade tensions with the EU. Against this backdrop, inflation will remain somewhat elevated over the coming months, and this should keep central banks leaning hawkish, with the ECB expected to raise rates one last time in September. Both central banks are then expected to resume rate cuts in early 2027.
Global economic forecasts as of 2 July 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China: Balance of risks improves; imbalances get worse
- Macro economy
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Hit from energy shock offset by strong exports on the back of global tech/AI boom. China managed energy shock quite well; officially reported oil imports sharply down in April/May. Balance of risks to our growth forecasts is improving, but supply-demand imbalances are rising.
The Netherlands - The Harry Styles effect
- Macro economy
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Q1 GDP upwardly revised to 0.2% q/q. We expect growth to average 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. CPI inflation rose sharply to 3.5% y/y in May, largely driven by airfares and accommodation. With Prinsjesdag (Budget Day) approaching, attention is turning to purchasing power support.
Germany - Political uncertainty keeps weighing on economy
- Macro economy
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The economy is stabilizing but remains fragile, with inflation above target. Some progress on pension reforms, but internal tensions persist. Rising political risks and uncertainty due to voter dissatisfaction.
Eurozone: The energy shock is dragging – and driving – consumption
- Macro economy
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Surging EV sales suggest consumption was not only hindered, but also helped by the energy shock. With the energy shock fading, consumer confidence is likely to recover, further helping consumption. The ECB is still expected to hike once more in September, with rate cuts expected in Q2-Q3 2027.
Spotlight - Oil’s bearish turn premature, but worst looks behind us
- Natural resources
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Oil prices have fallen sharply, but current levels appear low relative to tight physical market conditions. Inventories remain low, while summer travel and refinery activity should support oil demand. Supply is expected to recover next year, while demand growth should be limited by ongoing decarbonisation in transport. Our new end-year forecasts are USD 80 per barrel for Brent and USD 75 for WTI; for end-2027 we expect USD 70 for Brent and USD 65 for WTI.
Global Monthly - Teflon economy shaking off another shock
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of persistent shocks. The AI boom, defence spending and the energy transition ‘capex troika’ are likely to continue supporting growth going forward. Still, AI bubble risk, and sovereign debt dynamics remain a worry.
The housing market in the grip of higher interest rates
- Macro economy
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We expect house prices to rise by 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. The price increase is slowing due to higher mortgage rates. Income growth and limited housing supply are supporting price growth. The number of transactions is falling by 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. This is because investors are selling fewer rental properties.
