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The Week Ahead - 10 -14 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Ugly Contest: Part I - Can France dig itself out of a fiscal hole?
- Macro economy
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France wins the Ugly Contest for now, but the UK has its own major risks
ESG Economist - Carbon prices will reshape steel economics
- Sustainability
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This analysis is a follow up from our analysis of 22 October 2025 on the most polluting steel processes and the trend in CO2 emissions from these processes. In the underlying analysis, we examine the impact of carbon costs on companies in the sector and through its various methods of steel production. With both analyses, we hope to provide companies in the sector and their suppliers with more insight into identifying potential risks and opportunities.
FX Special - Why the US dollar is still overvalued
- Macro economy
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The US dollar is substantially overvalued according to different metrics including our own fundamental model estimates. The Japanese yen and the euro are the most undervalued versus dollar. Cyclical drivers and FX hedging have mainly contributed to dollar weakness in 2025. In our forecast horizon we expect the dollar to weaken further due to negative cyclical developments and more concerns on the structural factors.
ESG Economist - EU ETS Price Scenarios: Economic impact the Netherlands
- Macro economy
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In September, ABN Amro Group Economics published projections for EU ETS prices under various scenarios. This note builds on those scenarios, analysing their potential impact on key macroeconomic variables in the Netherlands.
Dutch manufacturing sector sees exports picking up
- Macro economy
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The Dutch manufacturing sector is growing at a slightly slower pace, according to the Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI for October, which declined from 53.7 to 51.8. Output and new orders continued to increase. The volume of new export orders rose again, after a slight decline in September.
The Week Ahead - 3 - 7 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ECB increasingly comfortable on hold
- Macro economy
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The ECB kept its key policy interest rates steady for the third successive meeting and its commentary suggested that it is increasingly comfortable maintaining this policy stance going forward.
FOMC Watch - "December is far from a foregone conclusion"
- Macro economy
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The FOMC lowered its policy rate by 25 bps to the 3.75-4.00% range. There were two dissents, with Miran favouring a half-point cut, and Schmid favoring no cut. The Schmid dissent came as a surprise, and likely reflects wider disagreement and uncertainty going forward. Powell explicitly confirmed this, highlighting substantial difference of opinion and noting that December is 'far from' a foregone conclusion. Apart from that, the monetary policy statement maintains the description of the labor market, noting that recent indicators are consistent with earlier developments. Powell's rationalization for today's cut was therefore identical to last time; risks to the two sides of the mandate have become more balanced and the policy rate was moved closer to neutral.
Dutch elections - Convergence in polls suggest a tight race
- Macro economy
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The Dutch head to the ballot box coming Wednesday, polls suggest that support for the four largest parties has converged. A centrist 4-party coalition now could have a majority, but is being ruled out for now by the centre-right VVD party-leader Yeşilgöz. Such a coalition has overlap but also large differences, suggesting a challenging formation process lies ahead. The election programme of each of the parties points to higher deficits in the coming years... but for next year, we expect the impact on the funding need to be limited because the policy changes will take time to have an effect. Unlike two years ago, the pension transition is not on the political agenda during these elections.
