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The Week Ahead - 17 - 21 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US – Government shutdown ends, what’s next?
- Macro economy
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The government shutdown has ended after 43 days. With mounting pressure from canceled flights before the Thanksgiving weekend, unpaid salary payments for many federal workers, and paused food aid to millions of households, a number of Democrats broke party line and gave in to reopening the government, without serious concessions on the primary issue of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). There was no renewal of subsidies for the ACA set to expire at the end of the year. That means that insurance premiums are set to rise substantially for many Americans. Instead, they got some concessions on backpay, reinstatement of fired workers, and a promise to at least vote on the ACA by the middle of December. There is no guarantee that an ACA extension will pass the Senate, and even then, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson refused to confirm he'd be willing to have a House vote on it. The interim funding package funds the government through January 30, 2026. There’s a significant risk the government will shut down again, especially considering that funding for some of this round’s pain points, such as food stamps, is secured until September.
Energy Market Outlook 2026 - Oil oversupply and European gas price stabilization
- Macro economy
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We expect Brent crude to average $55/b in 2026, gradually declining to $50/b by year-end. TTF gas prices forecast to average €30/MWh in 2026, with summer prices falling to €26/MWh.
Global economic forecasts as of 11 November 2025
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
FX Outlook 2026 - More dollar weakness ahead
- Macro economy
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US dollar is overvalued and more weakness in 2026. Narrowing rate spreads and German spending support euro, but French fiscal concerns may limit gains. Narrowing US-Japan rate differentials and dollar weakness to support the yen.
Global Outlook 2026 - China: The need to rebalance remains despite trade deal
- Macro economy
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Supply-demand imbalances have not really been tackled in 2025. Extension of the US-China truce will reduce external risks in 2026, but there is still a need to rebalance. We expect a stepping up of targeted measures to support domestic demand, but still no ‘bazooka’. China-US/West: Fragile equilibrium holds after trade deal with US, strategic decoupling to continue. We expect annual GDP growth to slow from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, and to 4.3% in 2027.
Global Outlook 2026 - US: The AI Haves and Have Nots
- Macro economy
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The US has become a tale of two economies: AI is booming, the remainder is stagnant. Trade and immigration policy are expected to widen the divide. AI investment, and fiscal and monetary easing will drive growth, at the cost of deficits and inflation.
Global Outlook 2026 - The Netherlands: Bottlenecks keep a lid on the economy
- Macro economy
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The growth outlook improves moving into 2026, but bottlenecks and competitiveness issues constrain potential growth. We expect GDP growth to average 1.7% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027. Labour market tightness eases, but the unemployment rate will only increase marginally. Inflation stays above the eurozone aggregate, due to tax changes and services prices.
Global Outlook 2026 - Eurozone: External environment rough, will Europe step up?
- Macro economy
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The eurozone economy performed well in 2025, despite the headwinds from US tariffs and intense competition from China – even if that performance is exaggerated by outlier Ireland. We expect growth to re-accelerate in 2026 as German fiscal spending ramps up, though southern European outperformance is expected to wane on the end of the EU’s Recovery & Resilience Facility. The ECB is expected to stay on hold through 2026-7. Near term risks are tilted to another cut given the looming inflation undershoot, but those risks could tilt towards a hike as 2027 develops.
Special Global Outlook 2026 - We need to talk about Exorbitant Privilege
- Macro economy
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Exorbitant Privilege: The erosion of US institutions has surprised in its speed and scope. What are the risks in 2026, and can Europe step up to fill some of the void?
