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Carbon Market Strategist - Bullish momentum amid changing dynamics
- Natural resources
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Gas and carbon prices are decoupling due to sufficient gas storage and upcoming LNG capacity in 2026. Industrial demand recovery in Europe has slowed, reflecting weaker demand for EUAs. US tariffs are expected to hinder industrial recovery until late 2025. Anticipation of a market deficit in 2026, tighter emissions caps, phaseout of free allocations, and early positioning by traders are driving the bullish trend in EUA prices. We foresee EUA prices to rise, averaging 80 EUR/tCO2 in Q4 2025 and reaching 100 EUR/tCO2 by end of 2026.
Dutch elections - Post-election climate policy
- Macro economy
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We have assessed the possibility that climate policy in the Netherlands will be intensified in the next few years by looking at the climate policy plans in the election programmes of the political parties that currently are polling the highest for the election.
China: Chokepoint challenges
- Macro economy
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US-China: New chokepoint tensions illustrative for ‘fragile equilibrium’. Annual real GDP growth drops below 5% in Q3, as expected. Investment growth negative in September; industrial production strong. CCP to discuss 15th Five Year-Plan (2026-2030) this week.
The Week Ahead - 20 - 24 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ESG Strategist – Investigating commonly-cited factors of the greenium
- Sustainability
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Earlier this year, we wrote about how euro investment grade (IG) green bonds exhibit lower volatility and, in most cases, also offer slightly higher liquidity, the latter based on Bloomberg LQA scores, bid-ask spread relationships and relative trading volumes [1]. Our analysis helps to explain the presence of a greenium over time: that is, why investors might be willing to accept a higher price (lower spread) for green bonds in comparison to non-green bonds. In this note, we delve further into the dynamics of the greenium. More specifically, we are interested in understanding the potential drivers of the greenium and if existing research on the topic is still valid when considering more recent data.
Dutch elections - Consensus for high deficits
- Macro economy
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The Dutch head to the ballot box on the 29th of October in an important election after a period of political turmoil. Polls signal quite some shifts, with far-right PVV as election winner once again, though it is deemed unlikely they will enter a new coalition. While still very uncertain, with centre parties, such as the CDA, winning, a more centrist government looks increasingly feasible. Party programmes share a consensus for large deficits, putting longer term public finances under pressure. Chances of a coalition with a more constructive stance towards the EU and traditionally sensitive issues, such as joint financing, have increased.
Fed Watch – Frontloaded easing increases inflation risks
- Macro economy
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Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting. He stated that the economic outlook appeared unchanged since the FOMC last met in September. Then, they lowered interest rates by 25 bps due to downside risks to a weakening labour market, even if the weakening is largely being driven by the supply side.
ESG Economist - Are we ambitious enough to protect nature?
- Sustainability
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In our previous note [1], we introduced the topic of nature and biodiversity loss, reflecting on what biodiversity loss could mean for the economy, households, and the financial system. In this follow-up note, we focus specifically on the European Union (EU). We examine past trends in nature and biodiversity across the continent, review key EU policies designed to halt biodiversity loss, with an emphasis on nature-related transition risks, and provide an outlook for the future.
Podcast - The importance of the Federal Reserve independence
- Macro economy
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In the first episode of ABN AMRO's new macroeconomic podcast, Bill Diviney (Head of Macro Research) and US economist Rogier Quaedvlieg dive into the recent attacks on Federal Reserve independence.
Gas Market Monitor - Winter approaches and gas markets exhale
- Macro economy
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Europe has filled 83% of gas storage, boosted by lower Asian LNG competition, increasing confidence for winter. Despite this, supply constraints persist until early 2026, when new capacity from the US and Canada is expected to ease the market. European industrial demand weakens amid global economic slowdown and tariffs, with recovery expected in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus. TTF prices remain sensitive to Middle East or other peace talks, sanctions, US-China trade war, and supply disruptions. Our outlook for Q4 year ahead contract to average around 38 EUR/MWh before easing in 2026.
