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Services drives May eurozone inflation rise
- Macro economy
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Eurozone inflation picked up in line with expectations to 3.2% in May, from 3% in April, while core inflation surprised to the upside, rising to 2.5% (ABN/consensus: 2.4%) from 2.2%. Energy continues to be the biggest driver of inflation, but held steady in May at 10.9% y/y, as a rise in petrol prices was probably offset to a greater extent than expected by falling diesel prices. Indeed, as we pointed out in our latest Global Monthly, the gap between diesel and petrol – which widened as refineries struggled to replace lost Middle Eastern diesel supply – has now largely normalised as European refineries filled the gap. Food inflation also unexpectedly fell back, to 2% from 2.4% in April, though there was considerable variation across countries this month (for instance, France saw a big rise in food inflation).
Hoarding rage drives fastest Dutch manufacturing growth in years
- Macro economy
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The hoarding behaviour as a result of the war with Iran is driving the growth of the Dutch manufacturing sector to its fastest pace in almost four years, according to the Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI. Buyers fear shortages and higher prices, and therefore buy extra parts and materials.
Global economic forecasts as of 27 May 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China - Protecting the fragile US-China truce
- Macro economy
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Notwithstanding solid Q1 GDP and ongoing strong foreign trade... April macro data are a reminder that China is cushioned, but not immune to the Iran conflict. US-China presidential summit reduces (but not fully takes away) tail risks.
US - Supply chain pressures are mounting
- Macro economy
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The labour market remains stable, but the unemployment rate is flattered by a decline in participation. Producer prices show initial signs of the energy shock cascading through the economy.
The Netherlands - Momentum eases after strong run
- Macro economy
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Growth slowed to 0.1% q/q at the start of the year, with increased uncertainty dampening growth. We have downwardly revised our growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.1% for 2027. HICP inflation forecasts are upgraded to 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027.
Germany - Weaker outlook amid rising risks and political uncertainty
- Macro economy
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Q1 GDP rose 0.3% q/q in Q1. Leading indicators signal ongoing but slowing momentum. We have downgraded our forecast from 0.8% to 0.7% this year and from 1.2% to 1% next year. Increasing inflation and softening labour market conditions will affect purchasing power. Limited reform progress and growing political fragmentation add uncertainty to the economic outlook.
Eurozone - Solid underlying growth seeing some cracks
- Macro economy
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Underlying momentum going into the energy shock has been solid in the eurozone overall. But France has become more of a worry amid weak growth and confidence. The ECB is still expected to hike at coming meetings in order to anchor inflation expectations.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz clock is ticking
- Macro economy
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The US and Iran seem close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But even with a full reopening, energy prices are likely to stay well above pre-war levels over the coming quarters. In the absence of a deal, the continued rundown of oil inventories poses the risk of nonlinear price spikes. Still, we expect the growth impact to stay contained thanks to the underlying resilience and flexibility of the global economy.
Key Views Global Monthly May 2026
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict has triggered a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will last, but our base case assumes severe disruptions last well into Q3. The inflation shock is outweighing the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest measures to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.
