Our research

Ireland volatility masks solid underlying eurozone growth

De Nederlandse economie groeit met 0,4% in het 2e kwartaal van 2026. Na een eveneens sterk 1e kwartaal betekent dat een sterk halfjaar voor de Nederlandse economie, ondanks de hogere inflatie en de toegenomen geopolitieke onzekerheid. De oorlog in Iran droeg ook positief bij aan de bbp-groei; verstoorde internationale aanvoerlijnen leidden tot hamstergedrag en extra orders in Nederland en Duitsland. Vooruitkijkend verwachten we dat de bbp-groei in de 2e helft van het jaar wat zal afzwakken. Ook de economie van de eurozone groeit harder dan verwacht. Kernlanden Frankrijk en Duitsland versloegen de groeiverwachtingen. De groei in de eurozone houdt naar verwachting aan.

FOMC Watch - FOMC leaves door for September hike wide open

The Fed decided to leave its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. This was in line with our own expectations and those of the vast majority of economists. However, few would have seen the hold as a done deal. Indeed, financial markets had priced in around a 30% chance of a 25bp hike in the run-up to the decision. In addition, three (Logan, Hammack and Kashkari) of the twelve voting FOMC members dissented, preferring instead to raise interest rates. We had expected to see some votes for hikes, though there was one more dissent than we thought there would be.

FOMC Watch - July on hold, September on the table

We expect the FOMC to leave rates unchanged next Wednesday. June CPI surprised significantly to the downside and, even if June core PCE comes in somewhat firmer (indeed, we expect 0.2% m/m), the recent inflation data should provide policymakers with sufficient confidence to wait for additional evidence on both inflation and labour-market trends before the September meeting.

ECB Watch – ECB makes way for September hike

The ECB left its key policy rates unchanged at today’s Governing Council meeting, as was widely expected.

FX Weekly - Volatile moves in narrow ranges

Movement in EUR/USD has been volatile…but the overall range has remained relatively narrow. This kind of behaviour could continue during holiday season. EUR/CHF also range-bound. The FX Weekly will have a summer break until mid-August.

US Watch – Hawks under pressure

US Watch - Rapidly declining participation is a warning sign

Payrolls slowed sharply in June, confirming our earlier warning that frontloaded hiring would likely be followed by payback. The unemployment rate remains deceptively low because participation has fallen rapidly. Only a small portion of the decline is explained by demographics. Lower participation in older age groups is likely permanent, while younger age groups’ re-entrance could lead to rapidly rising unemployment.

FX Weekly - Energy prices back in focus

The euro’s sensitivity to energy prices has shifted, but the recent rise in energy prices has again weighed on the currency. Financial markets are testing how far the authorities will tolerate yen weakness. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25 bp and signalled that further rate hikes are likely.

Global industry and trade quite resilient, partly helped by AI boom

Global manufacturing PMI drops a bit in June, but remains well in expansion mode. Decline in June driven by advanced economies. Global trade accelerated in early 2026, supported by AI boom, slowed during Iran conflict. Delivery times and container tariffs have driven our global supply bottlenecks index higher. Price subindices ease on falling energy prices in June, but stay relatively high for now.

FX Weekly - Heightened risk of intervention in the yen

Option-market signals suggest EUR/USD may struggle to stay below 1.1350. USD/JPY was near multi-decade highs and this raises intervention risk. The market is long dollars and heavily short yen, making a sharp reversal possible. EUR/USD forecasts trimmed slightly. We still expect dollar weakness, but now see EUR/USD at 1.18 by end-2026 and 1.23 by end-2027.