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The Netherlands - The Harry Styles effect
- Macro economy
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Q1 GDP upwardly revised to 0.2% q/q. We expect growth to average 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. CPI inflation rose sharply to 3.5% y/y in May, largely driven by airfares and accommodation. With Prinsjesdag (Budget Day) approaching, attention is turning to purchasing power support.
Germany - Political uncertainty keeps weighing on economy
- Macro economy
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The economy is stabilizing but remains fragile, with inflation above target. Some progress on pension reforms, but internal tensions persist. Rising political risks and uncertainty due to voter dissatisfaction.
Eurozone: The energy shock is dragging – and driving – consumption
- Macro economy
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Surging EV sales suggest consumption was not only hindered, but also helped by the energy shock. With the energy shock fading, consumer confidence is likely to recover, further helping consumption. The ECB is still expected to hike once more in September, with rate cuts expected in Q2-Q3 2027.
Spotlight - Oil’s bearish turn premature, but worst looks behind us
- Natural resources
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Oil prices have fallen sharply, but current levels appear low relative to tight physical market conditions. Inventories remain low, while summer travel and refinery activity should support oil demand. Supply is expected to recover next year, while demand growth should be limited by ongoing decarbonisation in transport. Our new end-year forecasts are USD 80 per barrel for Brent and USD 75 for WTI; for end-2027 we expect USD 70 for Brent and USD 65 for WTI.
Global Monthly - Teflon economy shaking off another shock
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of persistent shocks. The AI boom, defence spending and the energy transition ‘capex troika’ are likely to continue supporting growth going forward. Still, AI bubble risk, and sovereign debt dynamics remain a worry.
The housing market in the grip of higher interest rates
- Macro economy
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We expect house prices to rise by 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. The price increase is slowing due to higher mortgage rates. Income growth and limited housing supply are supporting price growth. The number of transactions is falling by 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. This is because investors are selling fewer rental properties.
ESG Economist - EU remains vulnerable in supply of critical materials
- Natural resources
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The EU remains heavily dependent on imports of critical materials, despite efforts at diversification and strategic partnerships with resource-rich countries. Dependence on resource-rich countries increases the EU’s vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. The EU aims to increase mining, processing, and recycling by 2030, but long lead times and high costs make achieving these goals uncertain. The Netherlands plays a central role in the EU trade of critical raw materials, primarily through transit via ports without significant added value. The EU faces technological and economic challenges in effectively recycling critical materials, particularly rare earth metals.
Dutch manufacturing sector maintains rapid growth
- Macro economy
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The Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI fell slightly, from 55.9 to 55.5 in June. The still high score shows that the industry is continuing to grow rapidly.
FX Weekly - Dollar rally masks lingering risks
- Macro economy
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The dollar rally has been driven mainly by a reassessment of the Fed outlook. Markets may have gone too far in pricing in Fed rate hikes; we still expect rate cuts. Extreme positioning in sterling and yen increases the risk of sharp currency moves. Dollar strength may continue over the summer, but US risks could return to focus after the holiday period.
Top of Mind - UK Politics – PM Starmer resigns, what comes next?
- Macro economy
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UK Prime Minister Starmer has resigned. The decision did not come as a surprise following his rival Andy Burnham’s landslide victory at last Thursday’s by-election. As we said in our Top of Mind webinar, Burnham will almost certainly go on to become the UK’s next prime minister. Indeed, one of his closest rivals Wes Streeting also came out this morning to endorse Andy Burnham, and it is possible that Burnham may become PM unopposed. Other possible challengers such as Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband have yet to explicitly state their stance.
