Our research

Housing market monitor - Better in 2026, sharper cooling in 2027

We expect house prices to rise by 3.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. The number of transactions falls by 0.5% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027. The housing market did better than expected in the first half of 2026. But rising mortgage rates and uncertainty are cooling the market. Despite this cooling, we do not expect house prices to fall.

Despite the Iran war, industry growth is picking up again

Conditions for the Dutch manufacturing sector have further improved, according to the Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 53.8 to 55.6 in September. Both production and the volume of new orders rose at a rapid pace.

Offshore wind energy is growing rapidly, but the business case remains a challenge

Offshore wind energy has grown rapidly over the past ten years. For example, global capacity has increased by 671% since 2015. At the same time, the average cost of electricity from wind energy has fallen by almost 57%. These are impressive figures, but pressure on the sector is mounting. Material and project costs are rising, interest rates remain relatively high, and the supply chain is facing increasing geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, the EU’s targets for offshore wind energy remain ambitious for the coming years. In this analysis, we examine the growth in offshore wind energy in greater depth, including the key challenges, and assess whether the EU targets are still achievable. The potential for growth in offshore wind is high globally. However, the feasibility of projects depends on cost trends, grid infrastructure, financing conditions and policy certainty. These issues are explored in further detail in this analysis.

Transaction Trends - Drivers are buying less fuel and watching their spending

Fuel prices have risen this year due to higher fuel excise duties and the war in Iran. Drivers are reducing fuel consumption in response to higher prices. Since March, consumption has been approximately 12% lower than a year earlier. As a result, the increase in fuel spending was limited to 6% year on year. Drivers in lower-income groups and urban areas reduced their fuel consumption relatively strongly. Growth in non-fuel spending among drivers is as high as among other households. However, it differs by income: growth is lower among lower-income groups.

Japan - The BoJ carries on

Q2 GDP and monthly data point to strengthening growth momentum, …although risks stem from larger and longer energy shocks, rising interest rates, frictions with China and a potential slowing of the AI boom. Inflation driven up by energy shock, AI boom, and stronger wage growth. Regime shift 1: Rate hike path BoJ (we expect another hike tomorrow) and QT (although moderated) a key factor pushing up bond yields… Regime shift 2: … and so is PM Takaichi’s more expansive fiscal stance. JGB yields continued to increase, as the curve bear flattened in recent months. Lower hedging costs will only provide a small relief for OATs. Joint FX intervention countered yen weakness… but a structural shift in rate spreads and investor behaviour crucial for further yen recovery.. We expect sideways movement in the yen in the coming months and a further recovery towards the end of 2027.

Bank of England: Hawkish shift means rate hikes to come

FX Weekly - New macro view, new FX outlook

Following significant changes to our macro base case we have changed our currency forecasts, We expect the euro to be range-bound against the dollar over the next few months. Towards the end of 2027 we expect that USD will decline. Energy currencies NOK, CAD and BRL should remain supported, but trade tensions may limit Canadian dollar gains. Currencies with hawkish central banks (NOK, AUD, NZD) should do well. CHF and SEK may replace JPY in carry trades. Our next FX weekly will be published in the first week of October.

FOMC Watch – Not restrictive yet

In a unanimous decision, the Fed's FOMC raised the target range of the Fed funds rate by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%. The Warsh Fed defied the Trump administration and preserved its credibility by following through on earlier signals. The statement itself was brief: "Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2% goal."

Prinsjesdag 2026: A budget in search of a majority

The Minority cabinet Jetten I presented its first full budget today at ‘Prinsjesdag’ (Budget Day). Today’s budget is yet without a majority and therefore features policies aimed at securing support from opposition parties. As a result, changes to today’s budget are expected during the upcoming budget debates. The impact on the budget deficit is expected to be limited, given tight agreement among coalition partners on budget rules… and as a result, we do not expect a significant impact on the funding need for 2027. The Dutch economy is resilient while long term challenges are mounting and inflation stays too high compared to peers.

FOMC Watch – A hike of caution, not conviction

Our base case is a 25bp hike, after the August CPI report likely shifted the narrow FOMC majority. A hike would be insurance against persistent inflation, not an attempt to reverse the energy shock. The decision does not imply that inflation expectations are unanchored, the labour market is overheating, or a long hiking cycle lies ahead. Warsh must explain both what the Fed is doing and the limits of what it can achieve.