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FOMC Watch – Warsh’s Jackson Hole Debut
- Macro economy
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Kevin Warsh will give his first Jackson Hole speech on Friday. First speeches are typically used by new Fed Chairs to outline, or at least hint at, their doctrine. Warsh could use that reset. Jackson Hole occurs at a pivotal moment with the Fed and Treasury seemingly pushing in opposite directions, with heightened term premia as a result.
The economic impact of a hotter Europe
- Macro economy
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The summer of 2026 has so far been exceptionally warm and dry, with wildfires spreading across large parts of Europe. Recent indicators of land temperatures, drought conditions and wildfire activity are significantly exceeding longer-term trends. Moreover, economic losses associated with heatwaves, droughts and wildfires have risen steadily over time. In this note, we estimate the economic losses incurred across Europe during the summer of 2026, and we also consider what these developments may imply for the Netherlands. Finally, we examine the implications of these extreme weather events for energy markets.
FX Weekly - Pressure on the dollar builds
- Macro economy
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US dollar sentiment is weakening, as US Treasury yields have been volatile and fiscal concerns remain elevated. The Treasury’s larger buyback programme has not reassured markets, and investors still worry about US debt dynamics and rising risk premia. The euro has benefited from dollar weakness, and further dollar downside could support EUR/USD. EUR/PLN has moved higher as central bank expectations diverge, with the NBP seen as potentially more dovish while the ECB is expected to hike once more.
Transaction Trends - How the Dutch spend their week
- Macro economy
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Dutch consumer spending follows a stable weekly pattern. Saturday is consistently the busiest day, while Sunday and Monday are consistently the quietest days. This pattern differs significantly across age groups: younger Dutch consumers tend to spend most on Saturdays and show only a limited decline on Sundays, whereas older consumers spend the most on Fridays and experience a much sharper decline in spending on Sundays. It is this predictability that makes transaction data valuable as an economic indicator: deviations from the normal weekly spending pattern can provide an early signal of changes in consumer behavior.
Global trade and industry - Ongoing strength despite bottlenecks
- Macro economy
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Global trade growth remarkably strong in first half of 2026… supported by the ongoing global AI boom/capex troika, resilient consumer spending, a fading tariff drag and trade rerouting, and stockpiling following the Iran conflict. Manufacturing PMIs also point to ongoing strength in global industry and trade. Our global supply bottlenecks index has risen to a post-pandemic high. Bottlenecks are adding to inflationary pressures.
Top of Mind - Rising US Treasury yields Q&A
- Macro economy
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Rising US Treasury yields have been top of mind recently and we have had many client questions on what is driving the market, potential policy interventions and the overall outlook for long-term interest rates. Below, we tackle these issues in a short Q&A format.
Carbon Market Strategist - EU ETS review signals less scarcity and more industrial policy
- Natural resources
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The EU ETS review reduces long-term allowance scarcity while EU's climate targets remain unchanged. Supply-side reforms dominate the package, with changes to the cap trajectory and Market Stability Reserve potentially adding nearly 2 billion allowances by 2040. New sectors and activities increase EUA demand, but their impact is gradual and outweighed by additional supply flexibility. Energy-intensive industries, removals developers and Article 6 projects stand to benefit, while long EUA scarcity positions face pressure. We expect EUA prices to be at a lower level but remain structurally elevated with an upward trajectory if the review to be fully adopted. Prices are expected to reach 91 EUR/tCO₂ in 2030 and 164 EUR/tCO₂ in 2035 under the review scenario.
Transaction Trends: Keeping a finger on the pulse of higher energy prices
- Macro economy
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Are Dutch households already feeling the impact of higher energy prices? In this publication, we use anonymised and aggregated transaction data from more than a million households to track how higher energy prices are affecting household finances. Interestingly, despite five months of elevated energy market prices, the median household energy payment has barely increased. This is because many existing contracts are still in effect and new electricity tariffs are not significantly higher. Although higher oil prices are quickly passed on at the pump, the increase in household fuel spending has so far remained limited as motorists adjust their behaviour.
FX Weekly - Dollar struggles despite higher US yields
- Macro economy
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Energy prices are rising due to the US-Iran standoff, supporting oil- and gas-linked currencies such as the Norwegian krone, while the Canadian dollar is held back by tariff concerns. US-Japan yen intervention is still affecting markets, mainly through the US Treasury market rather than the yen itself. US yields have risen partly because investors demand a higher term premium. Higher US yields are not supporting the dollar, because they reflect risk and uncertainty rather than stronger growth. EUR/USD has moved above 1.16 and further dollar weakness is expected.
Energy: Green growth, with red figures: the EU remains a net importer of clean tech
- Sustainability
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Demand for clean technologies (also known as ‘clean tech’) from the European Union (EU) is set to rise sharply in the coming years. This is due to not only the EU’s ambition to meet its climate targets, but also to its drive to achieve greater energy security. It is highly likely that the acceleration in demand for clean tech will lead to a further increase in trade flows in clean technologies between the EU and its current trading partners. This analysis focuses on trade flows in clean technologies between the EU and countries outside the EU. We do not only highlight the balance of imports and exports of clean technologies in the EU-27 in relation to countries outside the EU-27, but also show which countries are the EU-27’s most important trading partners. The analysis also examines the impact of recent geopolitical conflicts on trade flows: that impact the region’s energy security. Finally, we assess the feasibility of the EU’s clean tech targets for clean technologies for 2030.
