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Key Views Global Monthly October 2026
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of a succession of shocks. While the energy shock is back with a vengeance, its effects are more idiosyncratic now, and more impactful for Europe than the US. Meanwhile, a capex troika centred around AI, defence and the energy transition are continuing to drive growth, which is expected to hold roughly around trend rates in advanced economies. The global investment surge is also supporting growth in China, although imbalances there continue to fan trade tensions with the EU. Against this backdrop, inflation will remain somewhat elevated over the coming months, and this should keep central banks leaning hawkish, with the ECB, Fed and BoE expected to raise rates further. Our base case sees central banks resuming rate cuts in late 2027.
China - Growth momentum improves; more targeted support coming
- Macro economy
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Some signs of improving growth momentum, as fiscal support is filtering through. Beijing comes with some additional targeted support measures to safeguard growth. Trump and Xi preserving the guardrails; EU-China trade relations at a critical juncture.
US - Narrower inflation, broader hiring
- Macro economy
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The downward revision of PCE inflation exceeded expectations, and showed pressures narrowing. The labour market is solid, but not hot. Hiring is becoming less concentrated. The latest data gives no urgency for the Fed to hike, and we continue to see one last hike in December.
The Netherlands - Resilient growth meets persistent bottlenecks
- Macro economy
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With GDP growth in H1-26 outperforming earlier estimates, we raised our 2026 forecast to 1.5%. Growth will moderate in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, but is still solid. Inflation is on the rise and will exceed 3% for the fifth year in a row this year.
Eurozone - Rising bond yields temper the ECB’s rate hike pace
- Macro economy
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September PMIs point to strong growth momentum, though this is unlikely to be sustained. Spain’s election impact limited in the near-term; tighter immigration could weigh in the medium term. Rising (French) bond yields are tempering the pace, but we still expect two more hikes from the ECB
Global Monthly - Will the bond sell-off derail the economy?
- Macro economy
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The global economy has shrugged off repeated shocks, but rising bond yields are emerging as a new challenge to the expansion. Bond markets are mostly pricing higher neutral rates, with fiscal concerns adding to yield increases in France, Belgium and the UK. Higher rates may slow the expansion, but they are unlikely to derail the US or eurozone economies on their own. The growth impact will be bigger in fiscally vulnerable economies, with France facing the twin challenge of consolidation and bigger rate rises. Markets may be overestimating how long policy rates will stay elevated, leaving room for bond yields to fall back next year. Regional updates: Rising yields temper rate hike pace in the Eurozone. We raise our growth forecast in the Netherlands following a strong H1. In the US, narrower inflation reduces the urgency of the Fed to hike. Growth gains momentum in China helped by targeted fiscal support
Energy Strategist - Energy markets remain tight
- Natural resources
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Energy markets remain under pressure despite recent policy interventions and efforts to boost supply. While coordinated releases of strategic reserves and the rerouting of energy flows have provided some relief, low inventories, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and constrained infrastructure continue to leave oil, gas, and refined product markets vulnerable to further disruptions. The following highlights the key developments across these markets.
FX Weekly - Rate spreads drive the euro
- Macro economy
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More negative German–US yield spreads continue to weigh on the euro versus the dollar. Markets are pricing in more Fed and ECB rate increases than we expect. Fiscal and political uncertainty in France is adding pressure on the euro. We expect limited further EUR/USD weakness and maintain our end-2026 forecast at 1.15.
Climate Economics & Energy Research - Forget about the Netherlands’ 2030 climate targets
- Macro economy
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The decline in greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands virtually stalled in 2024 and 2025. The new Jetten government aims to put emissions back on a downward trajectory, but its policy measures are unlikely to have a material impact before 2030, making a substantial overshoot of the 2030 target very likely. The EU’s 2040 target is also likely to be missed by a wide margin, as the pace of emissions reductions is expected to slow after 2030. Recent policy proposals, including the revision of the EU ETS and the Dutch plans for agriculture, nature and nitrogen emissions, are also likely to affect the emissions trajectory through 2040, with the balance of risks tilted towards higher emissions. The probability of meeting the binding EU targets for final energy consumption and renewable energy in 2030 is also very low.
Rates Strategist - France: More than fundamentals priced-in
- Macro economy
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Current OAT-Bund spreads imply investors are pricing more than just a severe deterioration in France's fiscal outlook, as evidenced by the sharp rise in the OAT-CDS basis. We create a measure for the portion of OAT-Bund spreads that cannot be explained by (1) common euro-area factors, (2) broader rates volatility and (3) sovereign credit risk, including fiscal sustainability concerns. We show that this unexplained spread component has increased sharply and remained elevated since the June 2024 political shock, marking a persistent shift in France’s spread regime rather than a short-lived market dislocation. Absent a credible catalyst, OAT-Bund spreads are likely to remain in the 130-150bp range, while partial progress to reduce political uncertainty could bring them towards 120-130bp and a return to the post-June 2024 regime consistent with spreads around 105-115bp.
