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China - Protecting the fragile US-China truce
- Macro economy
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Notwithstanding solid Q1 GDP and ongoing strong foreign trade... April macro data are a reminder that China is cushioned, but not immune to the Iran conflict. US-China presidential summit reduces (but not fully takes away) tail risks.
US - Supply chain pressures are mounting
- Macro economy
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The labour market remains stable, but the unemployment rate is flattered by a decline in participation. Producer prices show initial signs of the energy shock cascading through the economy.
The Netherlands - Momentum eases after strong run
- Macro economy
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Growth slowed to 0.1% q/q at the start of the year, with increased uncertainty dampening growth. We have downwardly revised our growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.1% for 2027. HICP inflation forecasts are upgraded to 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027.
Germany - Weaker outlook amid rising risks and political uncertainty
- Macro economy
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Q1 GDP rose 0.3% q/q in Q1. Leading indicators signal ongoing but slowing momentum. We have downgraded our forecast from 0.8% to 0.7% this year and from 1.2% to 1% next year. Increasing inflation and softening labour market conditions will affect purchasing power. Limited reform progress and growing political fragmentation add uncertainty to the economic outlook.
Eurozone - Solid underlying growth seeing some cracks
- Macro economy
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Underlying momentum going into the energy shock has been solid in the eurozone overall. But France has become more of a worry amid weak growth and confidence. The ECB is still expected to hike at coming meetings in order to anchor inflation expectations.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz clock is ticking
- Macro economy
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The US and Iran seem close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But even with a full reopening, energy prices are likely to stay well above pre-war levels over the coming quarters. In the absence of a deal, the continued rundown of oil inventories poses the risk of nonlinear price spikes. Still, we expect the growth impact to stay contained thanks to the underlying resilience and flexibility of the global economy.
Key Views Global Monthly May 2026
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict has triggered a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will last, but our base case assumes severe disruptions last well into Q3. The inflation shock is outweighing the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest measures to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.
Warsh inherits Powell’s unfinished legacy
- Macro economy
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Tomorrow, Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. This is the first time in 40 years that the ceremony will be held at the White House. The last chairmen were all sworn in at the Fed, without the attendance of the President. Even if this is not the first time in history, the inauguration at the White House does send a signal, at a delicate moment. Insisting on normal procedure was a chance for Warsh to more cleanly distance himself from the White House, in a time where pressure on the Fed’s independence remains. Indeed, it is for that very reason that the former Chairman, Jerome Powell, decided to keep his position on the Federal Reserve Board until legal attacks on his position are resolved.
Transaction Trends - The pension transition - More pension, more spending?
- Macro economy
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This year, approximately 1.5 million Dutch retirees are noticing the effects of the pension transition in their wallets. Based on anonymized transaction data, we analyze the spending impulse resulting from the “conversion bonus” (invaarbonus), the additional pension indexation due to the transition to the new pension system. Retirees spend on average only 22% of an extra euro of pension income. This percentage declines at higher ages. Retirees with lower incomes or limited financial buffers tend to spend a larger share of the additional income. Despite the relatively small percentage effects, the size of the conversion bonus, combined with a large number of elderly people, still provides a modest boost to the Dutch economy.
FX Weekly - Sterling and euro under pressure
- Macro economy
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Sterling and euro both fell versus the US dollar this week. Energy prices drove much of the move. UK politics may raise short-term volatility in sterling. But fiscal clarity could support sterling. Higher US yields have supported the dollar.
