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Improving outlook for Dutch industry
- Macro economy
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The Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI has risen, from 50.1 to 50.8, indicating a clear improvement in conditions. Production in the Dutch manufacturing sector picked up faster in February. The volume of new orders fell slightly, but international conditions have further improved.
Implications of Middle East escalation
- Macro economy
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The military escalation in the Middle East threatens the economy because of the disruption to energy supplies and increased uncertainty. Energy infrastructure has not yet been significantly impacted, but that remains a risk as air strikes continue to rage. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most important energy choke points - has come to a near stand-still. Any sustained energy price shock would have more noticeable effects on inflation than growth. We present inflation scenarios assuming oil at USD 80 per barrel, 100 and 130; in all cases inflation spikes in 2026 but falls back in 2027 . For monetary policy, the duration of the shock is crucial, as are second round effects, given the focus on the medium term.
The Week Ahead: 2-6 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
Global economic forecasts as of 21 February 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China - Beijing to keep targeted approach amid record trade surplus
- Macro economy
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Mixed macro data as China enters the Year of the (Fire) Horse. Domestic supply-demand imbalances culminate in record trade surpluses. Policy targets to be announced in early March; China to benefit from US Supreme Court ruling.
US - AI momentum overshadows and deepens labour weakness
- Macro economy
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The revision to labour market data brings it closer in line with sentiment. Core PCE inflation back at 3.0%, while CPI continues to slow to 2.5%. Headline GDP weaker than expected, but AI-investment fueled private demand holds up.
The Netherlands - Minority coalition agreement is all about defence
- Macro economy
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A strong second half of 2025 and strong momentum at the start of the year means we upgrade our growth forecasts to 1.6% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.3% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2025. The incoming minority government is ramping up defence spending, while keeping its finances in check. Plans are nowhere near final though, as they hinge on opposition support.
Eurozone - Early signs of the German spending push
- Macro economy
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Q4 GDP surprised to the upside, driven partly by the usual suspects (Spain), but Germany was a notable contributor after years of tepid growth, while France was resilient in the face of budget uncertainty. We are seeing early signs of Germany’s spending push, particularly in defence-related factory orders. The strengthening domestic economy adds to our conviction of an on-hold ECB. Beyond near-term policy, the changing of the guard on the Governing Council will be key over the coming 1-2 years.
Spotlight - The Warsh Fed in 2026
- Macro economy
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In the near-term, Warsh’s ‘conviction-based’ policy drive puts downward pressure on rates. Despite a bullish outlook on the US economy and increasing inflation, we see 75 bps of cuts this year. This view is grounded in a more dovish Fed reaction function that downplays recent data.
Global Monthly - Geopolitics bad, macro good
- Macro economy
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While the risks have certainly not gone away, economic data has been generally firming, while near term positive impulses are getting stronger. Higher AI capex spending looks to be bigger than expected, fiscal stimulus is ramping up and financial conditions remain easy. So far geopolitics has been the dog, which barks very loudly, but does not bite. That cannot be taken for granted with Iran the latest flashpoint. SCOTUS decision to scrap IEEPA tariffs may not change too much, not least because fresh tariffs have largely replaced the old ones. There is an increasing chance that the global economy may run hot in the near term but also of a future hangover further down the line.
