Our research
Access all our publications and columns. Use the filters to easily find what content you are looking for.
Filters
All publications
1924 results
A new Fed Chair in a more fragile Treasury market
- Macro economy
-
Fed Chair transitions have historically been followed by higher Treasury yields, as markets reprice policy uncertainty and the incoming Chair’s reaction function. This post-transition rise in Treasury yields is still yet to materialize. Any repricing under Warsh may be more persistent than in past transitions because he takes over an already fragile Treasury market. Warsh’s preference for lower rates may support the front-end of the curve, but concerns about political pressure, reduced transparency and conviction-based policymaking could keep term premia and long-end yields under upward pressure. Even a gradual reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet would matter for Treasuries, because it raises free float and shifts more duration risk onto investors with less stable demand. Rising Treasury issuance and a worsening fiscal backdrop mean that higher yields increasingly feed back into debt-servicing costs, rollover risk and term premia. The shift away from foreign and official buyers toward more cyclical domestic investors makes Treasury demand less stable, reducing the market’s ability to absorb growing supply without higher term premia.
ECB suggests more hikes to come
- Macro economy
-
The ECB raised interest rates by 25bp at the June Governing Council meeting as was widely expected. Its communication and forecasts suggested that there will likely be more rate hikes to come.
ECB to hike this week and signal more on the cards
- Macro economy
-
The ECB Governing Council meets this week to decide on its monetary policy, where it will also have aid of updated projections on the economy and inflation. We expect the ECB to raise its key policy interest rates by 25bp as well as signalling that further monetary tightening is on the cards going forward.
Global industry: Still solid, but with more divergence and disturbances
- Macro economy
-
Global manufacturing PMI for May steady at four-year high. However, we see more divergence between countries/regions. The supply side held up better than the demand side in May. Disturbances drive our global supply bottlenecks index further into ‘excess demand’ territory. Cost price pressures from global industry are on the rise.
Services drives May eurozone inflation rise
- Macro economy
-
Eurozone inflation picked up in line with expectations to 3.2% in May, from 3% in April, while core inflation surprised to the upside, rising to 2.5% (ABN/consensus: 2.4%) from 2.2%. Energy continues to be the biggest driver of inflation, but held steady in May at 10.9% y/y, as a rise in petrol prices was probably offset to a greater extent than expected by falling diesel prices. Indeed, as we pointed out in our latest Global Monthly, the gap between diesel and petrol – which widened as refineries struggled to replace lost Middle Eastern diesel supply – has now largely normalised as European refineries filled the gap. Food inflation also unexpectedly fell back, to 2% from 2.4% in April, though there was considerable variation across countries this month (for instance, France saw a big rise in food inflation).
Hoarding rage drives fastest Dutch manufacturing growth in years
- Macro economy
-
The hoarding behaviour as a result of the war with Iran is driving the growth of the Dutch manufacturing sector to its fastest pace in almost four years, according to the Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI. Buyers fear shortages and higher prices, and therefore buy extra parts and materials.
Global economic forecasts as of 27 May 2026
- Macro economy
-
Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China - Protecting the fragile US-China truce
- Macro economy
-
Notwithstanding solid Q1 GDP and ongoing strong foreign trade... April macro data are a reminder that China is cushioned, but not immune to the Iran conflict. US-China presidential summit reduces (but not fully takes away) tail risks.
US - Supply chain pressures are mounting
- Macro economy
-
The labour market remains stable, but the unemployment rate is flattered by a decline in participation. Producer prices show initial signs of the energy shock cascading through the economy.
The Netherlands - Momentum eases after strong run
- Macro economy
-
Growth slowed to 0.1% q/q at the start of the year, with increased uncertainty dampening growth. We have downwardly revised our growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.1% for 2027. HICP inflation forecasts are upgraded to 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027.
