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ESG Economist - Netherlands' emissions gap towards 2030 is growing despite progress
- Sustainability
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The Netherlands is decarbonising, and the transition is in full swing. However, the pace of the transition to a low-carbon economy is not yet sufficient to achieve the climate targets that have been set. This analysis highlights the shortfall and examines the reasons behind it. Among other things, we see that there are numerous initiatives to decarbonise and that many best practices can now be identified. However, the sectors responsible for the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions – the energy-intensive sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) – still face a major challenge in becoming low-carbon. For many companies in these sectors, decarbonisation solutions are often within reach, but it is the preconditions that often create obstacles. In this analysis, we first examine the trend of a number of sustainability indicators for the Dutch economy and the current state in reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) in various sectors. In doing so, we look at, among other things, the feasibility of the 2030 climate target per sector. We then take a closer look at the portion of emissions covered by the EU ETS and how energy-intensive sectors in industry are performing. Specific industrial climate targets are discussed, including the most obvious decarbonisation options. We end this analysis with a conclusion.
ESG Economist - Europe leads climate race, but march to net zero is far from won
- Sustainability
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To achieve a real acceleration in decarbonisation, both energy production and consumption must switch to renewable and low-carbon energy sources at an accelerated pace. However, this process is still slow and faces some persistent obstacles, including grid congestion, staff shortages, financing challenges, and the often complex and volatile regulations in many countries. Despite the scaling back and reversal of climate policy in many countries – led by the United States (US) – the European Union (EU) remains committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, as laid down in the European Climate Law. This further increases the differences in decarbonisation paths between countries/regions and pushes climate targets further out of reach. In this analysis, we examine the current state of play in these decarbonisation paths of the most important countries worldwide and of the EU-27 in particular. What are the trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of countries and what differences are visible? What goals are the largest GHG-emitting countries pursuing with their climate policies and where does the EU-27 stand in this regard? How does final energy consumption (fossil fuel share) relate to GHG emissions and the trend in energy efficiency? And is the pace of GHG emission reduction (post-Paris Agreement) sufficient to ultimately achieve the EU's climate targets? We end this analysis with a conclusion.
ESG Economist - Higher material costs for clean tech put pressure on the transition
- Natural resources
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In the transition to a climate-neutral economy, the need for low-carbon technologies will increase further, which will also increase demand for the metals that are essential for manufacturing these technologies. It therefore remains important to continue to monitor trends in this area in order to gain a clear picture of the opportunities and risks. The energy transition is putting increasing pressure on many metal markets. Increasingly, quantities of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium will be needed in the coming years. In some cases, this will lead to shortages, but in most cases, supply will be more than sufficient to meet demand. In this analysis, we highlight a number of dominant critical or strategic metals that are necessary and, above all, indispensable in the energy transition. We distinguish between ‘required’ transition metals (the truly indispensable metals) and the ‘relevant’ transition metals (slightly less indispensable). We show which metals are particularly important for the production of four main clean technologies and calculate the impact of the trend in metal prices on the material costs for producing these clean technologies. Finally, we look at how demand for these metals is expected to develop in the coming years in various IEA scenarios and what influence could the supply-demand balance of these metals have on the price trend for energy transition metals. We end this analysis with a conclusion.
ESG Economist - Fewer free allowances forces companies towards low-carbon action
- Sustainability
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The EU ETS free emission allowances offer companies covered by the emissions trading system protection against competition from abroad. The allocation of free emission allowances limits the costs for ETS companies compared to competitors outside the EU. However, because this system also puts a brake on investments in decarbonization, these free emission allowances will be phased out completely by 2034. From that point on, a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will take over to partially minimize the loss of competitiveness. This will bring significant changes, particularly for ETS companies in the industrial sector. In this analysis, we highlight the trend in carbon costs for ETS companies in the Netherlands. To this end, we discuss the structure of the EU ETS in the Netherlands, its trends in ETS emissions, and the balance between free emission allowances and ETS emissions by sector. Finally, we highlight the impact of the phasing out of free emission allowances and the trends in carbon costs for ETS companies towards 2030. We end with a conclusion.
ESG Economist - Efficiency progress is a climate game changer
- Macro economy
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In this analysis, we examine the trend in emission intensity based on greenhouse gases in the EU-27. Emissions intensity indicates the level of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of activity. Energy and emissions intensity are expected to continue to decline, provided that the EU does not relax its climate policy too much.
ESG Economist - Natural gas remains an industrial lifeline
- Natural resources
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Gas consumption in industry remains high, hindering the acceleration of industrial decarbonisation. Although gas consumption in the EU has declined since 2017, natural gas remains a crucial energy source for energy-intensive industries.
ESG Economist - Carbon prices will reshape steel economics
- Sustainability
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This analysis is a follow up from our analysis of 22 October 2025 on the most polluting steel processes and the trend in CO2 emissions from these processes. In the underlying analysis, we examine the impact of carbon costs on companies in the sector and through its various methods of steel production. With both analyses, we hope to provide companies in the sector and their suppliers with more insight into identifying potential risks and opportunities.
ESG Economist - Global overcapacity slows down the sustainable steel transition
- Sustainability
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This is the first analysis in a two-part series on the steel industry. With these reports, we aim to provide insights in potential risks and opportunities for companies in the sector and their suppliers. In this first analysis, we focus on the most polluting steel production processes and trends in their associated CO2 emissions. We compare the CO2 emissions from the two main production routes for steel.
ESG Economist - Strong growth in EU clean tech trade
- Sustainability
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There is a strong likelihood that global demand for low-carbon technologies (also known as ‘clean tech’) will continue to grow in the coming years. In Europe, growth in demand for clean technologies will be driven mainly by the need to meet climate targets. It is therefore important not only to expand production capacity for clean technologies on the European continent, but above all to ensure that trade flows in clean technologies remain open and accessible. Understanding global trade flows in clean technologies and market developments in this segment is important for both businesses and policymakers involved in the energy transition. It helps to identify potential risks and opportunities. In this publication, we examine the main trends in trade flows of clean technologies in the EU-27. We not only highlight the ratios of imports and exports of clean technologies in the EU-27, but also show which countries are the most important trading partners for the EU-27. We note that there are significant differences between EU Member States in terms of trade in clean technologies and that only a handful of countries make a difference in this regard. Finally, we discuss the growth of trade in clean technologies. The data show that since 2017, trade in clean technologies has grown much more strongly than total trade in goods in the EU-27. We end this note with a conclusion.
ESG Economist - Pressure on energy-intensive industry still high
- Sustainability
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This publication focuses on three factors that increase production costs: energy prices, environmental taxes on gas and electricity, and the CO2 levy. First, we examine the trend in margins for highly energy-intensive companies and industrial companies that are less energy-intensive. We also look at the impact of fossil energy consumption versus energy prices. Next, we examine environmental taxes – including in an international context – and the impact of the CO2 levy on Dutch industry. Finally, we look at deindustrialisation in the Netherlands and the extent to which this has already become a reality. We also investigate how the government's announced relief measures could affect the sustainability of the sector. We will end this note with a conclusion. (Photo by Mario Caruso on Unsplash)
