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ESG Economist - EU remains vulnerable in supply of critical materials
- Natural resources
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The EU remains heavily dependent on imports of critical materials, despite efforts at diversification and strategic partnerships with resource-rich countries. Dependence on resource-rich countries increases the EU’s vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. The EU aims to increase mining, processing, and recycling by 2030, but long lead times and high costs make achieving these goals uncertain. The Netherlands plays a central role in the EU trade of critical raw materials, primarily through transit via ports without significant added value. The EU faces technological and economic challenges in effectively recycling critical materials, particularly rare earth metals.
ESG Economist - Europe’s path to energy security
- Natural resources
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Expanding renewable energy sources, alongside investments in grids, storage, and supply chains, creates a sustainable and affordable energy system while reducing import dependency. Despite progress, projections show a significant gap between the current trajectory and the 2030 targets, prolonging reliance on imported fossil fuels and increasing geopolitical risks. Reducing energy intensity and improving efficiency decouples economic growth from energy consumption, strengthening competitiveness and lowering exposure to volatile energy markets. The expansion of electrification, based on the expansion of renewable energy, is crucial to safeguarding the EU’s energy security. Energy efficiency, innovation and the reuse of raw materials make countries less dependent on volatile energy markets and imports. Expanding storage capacity, refining facilities, and grid infrastructure ensures stability during energy crises and supports the transition to renewables. Integration of cross-border energy systems, aligned policies, and collaborative strategies strengthen resilience and reduce dependencies on external suppliers.
ESG Economist - Impact of the Iran conflict on transition commodities
- Sustainability
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The Iran conflict is having a major impact on commodity markets. With the outbreak of the war and Iran’s attacks on neighbouring countries’ oil and gas facilities, prices for energy commodities have soared. Such a sharp price reaction in other commodity markets (particularly metals) was initially absent, as the impact of the Middle East conflict on many non-fossil commodities did not immediately lead to widespread panic. It is now almost four weeks on, and many non-fossil commodities are beginning to show their true colours. In this analysis, we take a closer look at the trend in the transition metals index and which specific transition metals have been most affected since the start of the war. We also present the price index for defence metals and how this differs from the trend in the price of transition metals. With this analysis, we provide insight into the various price trends and indicate how this may impact the business sector.
ESG Economist - Netherlands' emissions gap towards 2030 is growing despite progress
- Sustainability
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The Netherlands is decarbonising, and the transition is in full swing. However, the pace of the transition to a low-carbon economy is not yet sufficient to achieve the climate targets that have been set. This analysis highlights the shortfall and examines the reasons behind it. Among other things, we see that there are numerous initiatives to decarbonise and that many best practices can now be identified. However, the sectors responsible for the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions – the energy-intensive sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) – still face a major challenge in becoming low-carbon. For many companies in these sectors, decarbonisation solutions are often within reach, but it is the preconditions that often create obstacles. In this analysis, we first examine the trend of a number of sustainability indicators for the Dutch economy and the current state in reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) in various sectors. In doing so, we look at, among other things, the feasibility of the 2030 climate target per sector. We then take a closer look at the portion of emissions covered by the EU ETS and how energy-intensive sectors in industry are performing. Specific industrial climate targets are discussed, including the most obvious decarbonisation options. We end this analysis with a conclusion.
ESG Economist - Europe leads climate race, but march to net zero is far from won
- Sustainability
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To achieve a real acceleration in decarbonisation, both energy production and consumption must switch to renewable and low-carbon energy sources at an accelerated pace. However, this process is still slow and faces some persistent obstacles, including grid congestion, staff shortages, financing challenges, and the often complex and volatile regulations in many countries. Despite the scaling back and reversal of climate policy in many countries – led by the United States (US) – the European Union (EU) remains committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, as laid down in the European Climate Law. This further increases the differences in decarbonisation paths between countries/regions and pushes climate targets further out of reach. In this analysis, we examine the current state of play in these decarbonisation paths of the most important countries worldwide and of the EU-27 in particular. What are the trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of countries and what differences are visible? What goals are the largest GHG-emitting countries pursuing with their climate policies and where does the EU-27 stand in this regard? How does final energy consumption (fossil fuel share) relate to GHG emissions and the trend in energy efficiency? And is the pace of GHG emission reduction (post-Paris Agreement) sufficient to ultimately achieve the EU's climate targets? We end this analysis with a conclusion.
ESG Economist - Higher material costs for clean tech put pressure on the transition
- Natural resources
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In the transition to a climate-neutral economy, the need for low-carbon technologies will increase further, which will also increase demand for the metals that are essential for manufacturing these technologies. It therefore remains important to continue to monitor trends in this area in order to gain a clear picture of the opportunities and risks. The energy transition is putting increasing pressure on many metal markets. Increasingly, quantities of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium will be needed in the coming years. In some cases, this will lead to shortages, but in most cases, supply will be more than sufficient to meet demand. In this analysis, we highlight a number of dominant critical or strategic metals that are necessary and, above all, indispensable in the energy transition. We distinguish between ‘required’ transition metals (the truly indispensable metals) and the ‘relevant’ transition metals (slightly less indispensable). We show which metals are particularly important for the production of four main clean technologies and calculate the impact of the trend in metal prices on the material costs for producing these clean technologies. Finally, we look at how demand for these metals is expected to develop in the coming years in various IEA scenarios and what influence could the supply-demand balance of these metals have on the price trend for energy transition metals. We end this analysis with a conclusion.
ESG Economist - Fewer free allowances forces companies towards low-carbon action
- Sustainability
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The EU ETS free emission allowances offer companies covered by the emissions trading system protection against competition from abroad. The allocation of free emission allowances limits the costs for ETS companies compared to competitors outside the EU. However, because this system also puts a brake on investments in decarbonization, these free emission allowances will be phased out completely by 2034. From that point on, a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will take over to partially minimize the loss of competitiveness. This will bring significant changes, particularly for ETS companies in the industrial sector. In this analysis, we highlight the trend in carbon costs for ETS companies in the Netherlands. To this end, we discuss the structure of the EU ETS in the Netherlands, its trends in ETS emissions, and the balance between free emission allowances and ETS emissions by sector. Finally, we highlight the impact of the phasing out of free emission allowances and the trends in carbon costs for ETS companies towards 2030. We end with a conclusion.
ESG Economist - Efficiency progress is a climate game changer
- Macro economy
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In this analysis, we examine the trend in emission intensity based on greenhouse gases in the EU-27. Emissions intensity indicates the level of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of activity. Energy and emissions intensity are expected to continue to decline, provided that the EU does not relax its climate policy too much.
ESG Economist - Natural gas remains an industrial lifeline
- Natural resources
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Gas consumption in industry remains high, hindering the acceleration of industrial decarbonisation. Although gas consumption in the EU has declined since 2017, natural gas remains a crucial energy source for energy-intensive industries.
ESG Economist - Carbon prices will reshape steel economics
- Sustainability
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This analysis is a follow up from our analysis of 22 October 2025 on the most polluting steel processes and the trend in CO2 emissions from these processes. In the underlying analysis, we examine the impact of carbon costs on companies in the sector and through its various methods of steel production. With both analyses, we hope to provide companies in the sector and their suppliers with more insight into identifying potential risks and opportunities.
