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ESG Economist - Strong growth in EU clean tech trade
- Sustainability
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There is a strong likelihood that global demand for low-carbon technologies (also known as ‘clean tech’) will continue to grow in the coming years. In Europe, growth in demand for clean technologies will be driven mainly by the need to meet climate targets. It is therefore important not only to expand production capacity for clean technologies on the European continent, but above all to ensure that trade flows in clean technologies remain open and accessible. Understanding global trade flows in clean technologies and market developments in this segment is important for both businesses and policymakers involved in the energy transition. It helps to identify potential risks and opportunities. In this publication, we examine the main trends in trade flows of clean technologies in the EU-27. We not only highlight the ratios of imports and exports of clean technologies in the EU-27, but also show which countries are the most important trading partners for the EU-27. We note that there are significant differences between EU Member States in terms of trade in clean technologies and that only a handful of countries make a difference in this regard. Finally, we discuss the growth of trade in clean technologies. The data show that since 2017, trade in clean technologies has grown much more strongly than total trade in goods in the EU-27. We end this note with a conclusion.
ESG Economist - Pressure on energy-intensive industry still high
- Sustainability
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This publication focuses on three factors that increase production costs: energy prices, environmental taxes on gas and electricity, and the CO2 levy. First, we examine the trend in margins for highly energy-intensive companies and industrial companies that are less energy-intensive. We also look at the impact of fossil energy consumption versus energy prices. Next, we examine environmental taxes – including in an international context – and the impact of the CO2 levy on Dutch industry. Finally, we look at deindustrialisation in the Netherlands and the extent to which this has already become a reality. We also investigate how the government's announced relief measures could affect the sustainability of the sector. We will end this note with a conclusion. (Photo by Mario Caruso on Unsplash)
ESG Economist - Increasing our security could come at an environmental cost
- Macro economy
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As geopolitical fears mount, EU countries are discussing options to ramp up defence spending. Currently, there are three options: finance it with debt, raise taxes and/or cut spending elsewhere, or use EU programmes.
ESG Economist - Carbon costs for ETS companies are set to rise
- Sustainability
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In 2024, Dutch companies that fell under the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) have emitted more CO2 than they did a year ago. According to the Dutch Emissions Authority (NEa), the increase was 2.3%, which amounts to approximately 1.4 million tonnes more CO2 emissions. In this short update on emissions among EU ETS companies, we not only look at emissions in the Netherlands, but also compare this with the trends in emissions in the other 26 EU member states. We also highlight the trend in carbon costs. Based on the expected CO2 price and the path of emissions towards 2030, we estimate the carbon costs in the period through to 2030.
ESG Economist - Supply risks of transition commodities mount
- Natural resources
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So far this year, the price index for transition commodities has risen by 10%, mainly due to the strong recovery of copper prices and some early signs of recovery in Chinese industrial activity.
ESG Economist - Gas consumption structurally lower since energy crisis
- Sustainability
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Gas consumption in the Netherlands was on average 27% lower over the period 2022-2024 compared to the 2019-2021 period. Electrification on the basis of renewable energy sources is gaining in importance in the Netherlands, but gas-fired power generation will remain necessary for the time being. Despite the decline in gas usage and GHG emissions, lower gas prices in 2025 could lead to an increase in gas consumption and emissions, especially in industry and greenhouse horticulture.
ESG Economist - Chance of meeting energy efficiency targets is very low
- Sustainability
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The more energy-efficient companies are, the less energy is wasted and the more is saved. In more concrete terms, this means that with lower energy consumption, at least the same amount of output will have to be realised. Amongst many companies in sectors, energy efficiency has been embraced more often over recent years, mainly due the relatively high and volatile energy prices. Lower energy consumption reduces operational costs and has a favourable effect on margins. But at the same time, energy efficiency improvements also reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make countries less dependent on energy imports. Energy efficiency is also seen as the low-hanging fruit. Every company – and every household – is able to start working on this tomorrow, so to speak. These are often relatively simple interventions at a low cost. For these reasons, energy saving is high on the European agenda. The EU's Energy Efficiency Directive (EED, 2023) has set energy-saving targets for each member state. Countries that fall under the EED must ensure a reduction in final and primary energy consumption of at least 11.7% in 2030 compared to the 2020 level (reference scenario). In this analysis, we will examine final energy consumption within the EU-27 and take a closer look at the trends. Based on the trend in final energy consumption, it is possible to partially map energy savings and energy efficiency. We will also highlight developments within climate sectors and which important measures have been or can be taken. For the Netherlands specifically, we will take a closer look at sector trends and finally we investigate the feasibility of the EU energy saving target for the Netherlands.
ESG Economist - Investing in low-carbon technologies pays off
- Sustainability
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With the expansion of the EU ETS with ETS-II in 2027, almost all companies in the Dutch economy will have a strong incentive to invest in decarbonisation. External research shows that companies that actively invest in low-carbon technologies tend to have higher operating margins than those that do not invest in them. Bringing forward investment in decarbonisation could be beneficial for many companies. Indeed, investing in decarbonisation in the short term is more financially beneficial than investing in the medium term. In the period up to 2029, investment costs are lower than in the period after 2030. Next to that, maintenance costs are also slightly more favourable in the short term.
ESG Economist - High decarbonisation pressure EU energy-intensive industry
- Sustainability
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The pace of emission reductions in the EU-27 is far below of what is minimally needed to reach the 2030 target. In the industrial sectors where it is relatively difficult to reduce emissions, collectively account for about 23% of total EU-27 GHG emissions.
ESG Economist - Five climate challenges in Dutch climate sectors
- Sustainability
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This analysis shows that the emission reduction trend in sectors in the post-Paris period (2017-2023) would not – if it continued – lead to achieving the 2030 target. Indeed, following the post-Paris period trend in GHG emissions, the 2030 emissions reduction target (55% below 1990 level) will not be achieved, with a 5% gap. The recent analysis by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) even suggests that on the basis of current policies the post-Paris emission reduction trend will slow for many sectors.
