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Japan - The Land of the Rising Yields
- Macro economy
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We expect drags from US tariffs to keep a lid on Japanese growth. Trade talks with the US are taking quite some time. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently lowered its inflation forecasts, but upside risks remain. We expect the BoJ to stay on a cautious, gradual hiking path. In its June meeting, the BoJ announced to slow its pace of tapering, as expected. High public debt and rising rates pose challenges, but there are risk-mitigating factors. Meanwhile, the Japanese government bond curve has steepened due to a higher term premium. We do not have indications for structural US debt outflows by Japanese investors, yet. We expect the yen to appreciate versus the US dollar in 2025-2026.
Dutch Macro Perspectives - Wilders blows up coalition amid elevated uncertainty
- Macro economy
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Dutch government falls as the far-right PVV quits the coalition. The current government assumes caretaker status, meaning they only govern on selected topics. While uncertain at this stage, new elections are likely to be held, possibly in October.
Dutch Pension Fund Update - Pension Law Amendments Rejected, Curve Steepens
- Macro economy
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Today, the Dutch Parliament rejected the proposal to drastically amend the earlier adopted pension law. After the first vote, which took place per party, the votes were tied (75 against 75), a roll-call vote was held, which ultimately resulted in 72 votes in favour of the amendments and 73 against. In response to this vote, the EUR swap curve steepened which is in line with our view that the transition will result in a shift of hedges from the long end to shorter on the curve.
Spring Budget raises deficits but sticks to fiscal rules
- Macro economy
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Discussions on the Spring Budget are completed and the coalition published their plans. The new plans include various measures to boost household purchasing power on the short term, while structural investments appear to lack. The coalition lost their majority according to the latest polls. Despite pressure from other coalition parties for larger deficits, the VVD upheld budgetary rules . Next year, the funding need for the Dutch state will increase because of the higher deficit, higher redemptions and a one-off payment for the pensions of the defence personnel.
Dutch Macro Perspectives - Budget battles: when the coalition's wish list meets reality
- Macro economy
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The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) released their economic and fiscal forecasts on the 26th of February, marking the beginning of discussions on the ‘Voorjaarsnota’, or Spring Budget, which encompasses the government’s budgetary negotiations.
Global Monthly - Cracks emerge amid tectonic shifts
- Macro economy
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The fracturing of the transatlantic alliance is going to mean higher defence spending in Europe over time, though the immediate macro-economic implications of this are likely to be modest. The most imminent threat still comes from higher US trade tariffs, with a host of measures due as soon as next week. Last month, Trump blinked at the last moment on the biggest tariff rises, will souring confidence in the US make him do so again? Spotlights: 1) European defence spending: We summarise the available options for an increase and the macro implications; 2) German election: We look at the likely policy agenda of the new GroKo.
Rates Conviction - EU defence spending could shake EGB market
- Macro economy
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Recent comments by Trump regarding Russia and Europe have suggested a diminished US commitment to NATO, prompting European nations to significantly increase their defence spending.
Prinsjesdag 2024 - Budget day features little surprises
- Macro economy
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It has been a busy week in Dutch politics with the presentation of the 2025 budget today and the announcement of the new cabinet’s first term plans last week. The budget features among other topics additional measures to support household purchasing power. Helped by these measures, Dutch economic growth is set to normalize next year(s) on the back of rising real income. However, the measures will also see the budget deficit increase to 2.5% of GDP next year. We expect the total funding need to be around EUR 60bn, which is lower compared to 2024 as there is only one DSL maturing in 2025. Based on this estimate, we expect the DSTA to announce around EUR 35bn worth of DSL issues in 2025. In their first term, the Schoof I Cabinet focusses on curtailing migration, healthcare, housing and purchasing power and plans to cut spending on education, innovation and international cooperation. The current government is less pro-European compared to the previous government.
Budget plan: Short term spending increase covered by shaky cuts
- Macro economy
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PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB came to a coalition agreement, the next step is to fill cabinet positions. Read below to see our first impressions of the coalition agreement.
First far-right government after agreement has been reached
- Macro economy
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PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB came to a coalition agreement, the next step is to fill cabinet positions. The title of the agreement is ‘Hope, Courage and Pride’. The plan focusses on curtailing migration, lower taxation, business climate, the agricultural sector, housing construction and public policy. Given the ambitious plans, the risk of underspending, similar to the previous government, remains high. Regarding government finances, parties commit to a maximum deficit of -2.8% of GDP and to hold debt below 60% of GDP. Adjustments to the new pension law are not part of the agreement, more clarity on this topic is expected the coming days. We will come with a more detailed update on the plans today or tomorrow.
