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Dutch elections - Convergence in polls suggest a tight race
- Macro economy
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The Dutch head to the ballot box coming Wednesday, polls suggest that support for the four largest parties has converged. A centrist 4-party coalition now could have a majority, but is being ruled out for now by the centre-right VVD party-leader Yeşilgöz. Such a coalition has overlap but also large differences, suggesting a challenging formation process lies ahead. The election programme of each of the parties points to higher deficits in the coming years... but for next year, we expect the impact on the funding need to be limited because the policy changes will take time to have an effect. Unlike two years ago, the pension transition is not on the political agenda during these elections.
Dutch elections - Consensus for high deficits
- Macro economy
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The Dutch head to the ballot box on the 29th of October in an important election after a period of political turmoil. Polls signal quite some shifts, with far-right PVV as election winner once again, though it is deemed unlikely they will enter a new coalition. While still very uncertain, with centre parties, such as the CDA, winning, a more centrist government looks increasingly feasible. Party programmes share a consensus for large deficits, putting longer term public finances under pressure. Chances of a coalition with a more constructive stance towards the EU and traditionally sensitive issues, such as joint financing, have increased.
Dutch budget day overshadowed by upcoming elections
- Macro economy
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Little surprises on what was and wasn’t in yesterday's budget
Japan - The Land of the Rising Yields
- Macro economy
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We expect drags from US tariffs to keep a lid on Japanese growth. Trade talks with the US are taking quite some time. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently lowered its inflation forecasts, but upside risks remain. We expect the BoJ to stay on a cautious, gradual hiking path. In its June meeting, the BoJ announced to slow its pace of tapering, as expected. High public debt and rising rates pose challenges, but there are risk-mitigating factors. Meanwhile, the Japanese government bond curve has steepened due to a higher term premium. We do not have indications for structural US debt outflows by Japanese investors, yet. We expect the yen to appreciate versus the US dollar in 2025-2026.
Dutch Macro Perspectives - Wilders blows up coalition amid elevated uncertainty
- Macro economy
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Dutch government falls as the far-right PVV quits the coalition. The current government assumes caretaker status, meaning they only govern on selected topics. While uncertain at this stage, new elections are likely to be held, possibly in October.
Dutch Pension Fund Update - Pension Law Amendments Rejected, Curve Steepens
- Macro economy
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Today, the Dutch Parliament rejected the proposal to drastically amend the earlier adopted pension law. After the first vote, which took place per party, the votes were tied (75 against 75), a roll-call vote was held, which ultimately resulted in 72 votes in favour of the amendments and 73 against. In response to this vote, the EUR swap curve steepened which is in line with our view that the transition will result in a shift of hedges from the long end to shorter on the curve.
Spring Budget raises deficits but sticks to fiscal rules
- Macro economy
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Discussions on the Spring Budget are completed and the coalition published their plans. The new plans include various measures to boost household purchasing power on the short term, while structural investments appear to lack. The coalition lost their majority according to the latest polls. Despite pressure from other coalition parties for larger deficits, the VVD upheld budgetary rules . Next year, the funding need for the Dutch state will increase because of the higher deficit, higher redemptions and a one-off payment for the pensions of the defence personnel.
Dutch Macro Perspectives - Budget battles: when the coalition's wish list meets reality
- Macro economy
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The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) released their economic and fiscal forecasts on the 26th of February, marking the beginning of discussions on the ‘Voorjaarsnota’, or Spring Budget, which encompasses the government’s budgetary negotiations.
Global Monthly - Cracks emerge amid tectonic shifts
- Macro economy
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The fracturing of the transatlantic alliance is going to mean higher defence spending in Europe over time, though the immediate macro-economic implications of this are likely to be modest. The most imminent threat still comes from higher US trade tariffs, with a host of measures due as soon as next week. Last month, Trump blinked at the last moment on the biggest tariff rises, will souring confidence in the US make him do so again? Spotlights: 1) European defence spending: We summarise the available options for an increase and the macro implications; 2) German election: We look at the likely policy agenda of the new GroKo.
Rates Conviction - EU defence spending could shake EGB market
- Macro economy
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Recent comments by Trump regarding Russia and Europe have suggested a diminished US commitment to NATO, prompting European nations to significantly increase their defence spending.
