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ESG Economist - Will the Netherlands meet the EPBD targets?
- Macro economy
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In May 2024, the European Commission introduced the revised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), a significant regulation designed to improve the energy efficiency of buildings across the European Union (EU). The directive sets ambitious targets, including the goal of achieving a fully decarbonized building stock by 2050. In this note, we analyse the current state of the Dutch residential real estate sector and project whether the country is on track to meet the ambitious targets set by European regulations.
ESG Economist - Climate Outlook 2026: Beyond 1.5 °C
- Macro economy
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Surpassing 1.5°C global warming is increasingly near, and continuing current policies would lead to around a 2.8 °C temperature increase. The EU agreed on its NDC 3.0 just in time; however, ambition seems to have weakened increasing the chance that goals will not be met.
ESG Economist - EU ETS Price Scenarios: Economic impact the Netherlands
- Macro economy
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In September, ABN Amro Group Economics published projections for EU ETS prices under various scenarios. This note builds on those scenarios, analysing their potential impact on key macroeconomic variables in the Netherlands.
ESG Economist - Are we ambitious enough to protect nature?
- Sustainability
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In our previous note [1], we introduced the topic of nature and biodiversity loss, reflecting on what biodiversity loss could mean for the economy, households, and the financial system. In this follow-up note, we focus specifically on the European Union (EU). We examine past trends in nature and biodiversity across the continent, review key EU policies designed to halt biodiversity loss, with an emphasis on nature-related transition risks, and provide an outlook for the future.
ESG Economist - An introduction to nature-related risks
- Sustainability
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Economies are deeply reliant on ecosystem services like food, water, and climate regulation, yet alarming trends reveal the rapid degradation of critical natural ecosystems.
ESG Strategist – EU ETS costs will not eat into company’s profits
- Sustainability
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In this note, we analyze the impact of increasing ETS prices on companies’ results from the sectors under EU ETS and EU ETS2. According to our results, the impact on the electricity sector is quite benign, especially if we consider that the cost pass through is limited to 42%.
ESG Strategist – Limited impact expected from changes to the ECB collateral framework
- Sustainability
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The ECB has recently announced a change to its collateral framework. From the second half of 2026, haircuts to non-financial institutions’ bonds will be adjusted by a climate factor. The latter will serve as a buffer, mitigating the potential financial impact of climate-related uncertainties on collateral value and is calculated based on a sector-specific stressor, an issuer-specific exposure and an asset-specific vulnerability.
ESG Strategist – ESG issuance expected to considerably lag in 2025
- Macro economy
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There was a noticeable surge in negative news related to ESG in the first half of the year, which has impacted the issuance of ESG-labelled bonds. Initially, we expected ESG issuance to total EUR 266bn in 2025, but we have adjusted our forecast down to EUR 247bn. In the financials space, that downward revision stems from less ESG-labelled senior non-preferred bonds in Q2. With regards to corporates, the issuance of ESG-labelled bonds by utilities’ companies has also fallen short of our forecast, and we now expect it to total EUR ~50bn by year-end. And, finally, concerning sovereigns, we are also downward revising our forecast for NextGenerationEU issuance in EUR 3bn, in line with the trend registered in the first half of the year.
ESG Economist - Understanding European Social Housing Through a Comparative Lens
- Macro economy
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According to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, everyone has the right to housing, regardless of their employment status, health, or other conditions. In this note we dive deeper into the structures of social housing in four European countries: the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Germany and France.
ESG Strategist - Do defence investments and ESG mix?
- Sustainability
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Investments in the defence sector are projected to rise in the coming years due to growing geopolitical concerns. Given that public investment alone is insufficient to meet the sector's needs, private investors are expected to ramp up their defence-related investments. However, this prompts several questions regarding which funds could participate, especially considering the social implications of this issue. Therefore, in this note, we explore which funds are currently investing in defence, assess whether legislation permits both ESG and non-ESG funds to invest in defence-related companies, and provide a comprehensive evaluation of the involvement of ESG funds, particularly Article 9 funds, in defence-related investments.
