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The Week Ahead - 29 September - 3 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US - This is what stagflation looks like
- Macro economy
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The Fed did a ‘risk management cut’ of 25 bps as inflation and employment risks approach balance. Tariffs and the immigration crackdown led to an immediate stagflationary impulse, but the overall picture is nothing like the 1970s yet. Early Q3 data is actually showing some signs of a modest recovery in consumption and investment.
Global Monthly - Are we ready for another Trump shock?
- Macro economy
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We are seeing more signs of weaker exports and manufacturing from US tariffs, though the hit remains relatively mild so far. German fiscal spending and Chinese policy support should keep the impact of this soft patch contained. As the world grapples with one US-centred economic shock, another looms in the background: the potential loss of Fed independence. Spotlight: A less independent Fed would have implications well beyond US shores, and it could well lead to a resumption of ECB rate cuts.
The Week Ahead - 22 - 26 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
FOMC Watch - Two-sided risk means there's no risk-free path
- Macro economy
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The FOMC lowered its policy rate to the 4.00-4.25% range. There was one dissent, with Stephen Miran favouring a half-point cut, and one 'silent' dissent, with a single dot showing no cuts this year, despite having the option to change that after. The monetary policy statement explicitly calls out the shift in the balance of risks - downside risks to employment have risen - as the reason for lowering the target range by 25 bps.
FOMC Watch - Fed will lower rates, but shouldn’t
- Macro economy
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The Fed is set to reduce the policy rate by 25 bps in next week’s FOMC meeting. Throughout the year, the Fed has been in ‘wait-and-see’ mode, awaiting hard data on the impact of tariffs, to see which side of the mandate requires more urgent attention. In recent months the Fed has felt increasing pressure from the Trump administration and markets (who may be pricing in that political pressure) to support the labour market and start easing. The labour market seemed to be gradually cooling, but the two non-farm payroll releases since the last FOMC meeting changed the story. Weak monthly job gains, and a substantial negative revision to the months before now show a picture of an almost stalling labour market. This makes a 25 bps cut next week essentially inevitable. While we do not think a ‘recalibration’ of 25 bps towards neutral will materially affect the outlook, we do think a forward-looking Fed should rather keep rates on hold.
The Week Ahead - 15 - 19 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 8 - 12 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US - Labour market grinds to a halt, September cut inevitable
- Macro economy
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Non-farm payrolls gained a mere 22k, well below consensus forecasts of 75k. The most hotly anticipated labour market report in at least a year released on time after a BLS statement flagging technical issues ahead of the release. Private payrolls gained 38k, supported by the usual education, health care and leisure sectors, while manufacturing lost 12k jobs, and federal government employment fell by 15k. The three month moving average dropped from 35k to 29k. Along with the weak job gains there was a decline in average weekly hours, another indication of weakening demand.
Jackson Hole - Powell releases inner dove, Trump releases threat
- Macro economy
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Powell gave his final annual speech at Jackson Hole last Friday. The chair’s annual speech has often been used to signal policy shifts, and this year was no different. So let us start with the bombshell statement in the speech: 'The stability of the unemployment rate and other labour market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.'
