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The Week Ahead - 1 - 5 December 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 24 - 28 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 17 - 21 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US – Government shutdown ends, what’s next?
- Macro economy
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The government shutdown has ended after 43 days. With mounting pressure from canceled flights before the Thanksgiving weekend, unpaid salary payments for many federal workers, and paused food aid to millions of households, a number of Democrats broke party line and gave in to reopening the government, without serious concessions on the primary issue of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). There was no renewal of subsidies for the ACA set to expire at the end of the year. That means that insurance premiums are set to rise substantially for many Americans. Instead, they got some concessions on backpay, reinstatement of fired workers, and a promise to at least vote on the ACA by the middle of December. There is no guarantee that an ACA extension will pass the Senate, and even then, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson refused to confirm he'd be willing to have a House vote on it. The interim funding package funds the government through January 30, 2026. There’s a significant risk the government will shut down again, especially considering that funding for some of this round’s pain points, such as food stamps, is secured until September.
Global Outlook 2026 - US: The AI Haves and Have Nots
- Macro economy
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The US has become a tale of two economies: AI is booming, the remainder is stagnant. Trade and immigration policy are expected to widen the divide. AI investment, and fiscal and monetary easing will drive growth, at the cost of deficits and inflation.
Special Global Outlook 2026 - We need to talk about Exorbitant Privilege
- Macro economy
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Exorbitant Privilege: The erosion of US institutions has surprised in its speed and scope. What are the risks in 2026, and can Europe step up to fill some of the void?
Global Outlook 2026 - The shifting world order
- Macro economy
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The transition from one world order to another is in full swing, but it is still unclear how that new world order will look. The advent of AI, China’s rise, and the US’s relative decline offer challenges but also opportunities. The trade war weapon du jour has shifted from tariffs to chokepoints, creating new challenges for governments and manufacturers. Fiscal troubles in France and the UK are likely to remain a worry. Global growth has been remarkably resilient given the headwinds. We expect that resilience to continue in 2026, albeit with considerable risks.
The Week Ahead - 10 -14 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 3 - 7 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
FOMC Watch - "December is far from a foregone conclusion"
- Macro economy
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The FOMC lowered its policy rate by 25 bps to the 3.75-4.00% range. There were two dissents, with Miran favouring a half-point cut, and Schmid favoring no cut. The Schmid dissent came as a surprise, and likely reflects wider disagreement and uncertainty going forward. Powell explicitly confirmed this, highlighting substantial difference of opinion and noting that December is 'far from' a foregone conclusion. Apart from that, the monetary policy statement maintains the description of the labor market, noting that recent indicators are consistent with earlier developments. Powell's rationalization for today's cut was therefore identical to last time; risks to the two sides of the mandate have become more balanced and the policy rate was moved closer to neutral.
