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The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
US - Actions have consequences
- Macro economy
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Outside direct and indirect effects of the AI boom, the US economy grew at near stall speed in 2025. Low labour supply growth led to near-zero job creation, but also prevented unemployment from rising. With tariff inflation yet to dissipate, the Iran conflict generates another policy-induced inflation shock.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
A dovish Fed response may not be so terrible
- Macro economy
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The world economy is facing another cost-push shock. US household energy costs are set to rise sharply. This will further widen the K-shaped economy, as lower income households are forced to reduce spending immediately. A weak labour market reduces the risk of second round inflation effects. Demand weakness and second-round pressures may largely offset each other. Keeping rates fixed may very well be the appropriate response.
The Week Ahead: 16-20 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
Macro scenarios of the Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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The conflict in between the US-Israel and Iran has entered its 11th day. Geopolitical risk, as measured by the GPR index, has spiked to levels last seen around the Iraq invasion in 2003, and has remained highly elevated since. Since our initial publication last week Monday, it has been a rollercoaster ride for both oil and gas markets [1]. Given the ongoing uncertainty around the duration and impact of the conflict, we have put together three scenarios exploring how the macro-economic impact could evolve over the coming months, focused on the US and eurozone, and with the implications for the ECB and Fed’s key policy rates. We will follow up this note with updates on how we see these scenarios impacting bond and FX markets in the coming days.
The Week Ahead: 9-13 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
Implications of Middle East escalation
- Macro economy
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The military escalation in the Middle East threatens the economy because of the disruption to energy supplies and increased uncertainty. Energy infrastructure has not yet been significantly impacted, but that remains a risk as air strikes continue to rage. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most important energy choke points - has come to a near stand-still. Any sustained energy price shock would have more noticeable effects on inflation than growth. We present inflation scenarios assuming oil at USD 80 per barrel, 100 and 130; in all cases inflation spikes in 2026 but falls back in 2027 . For monetary policy, the duration of the shock is crucial, as are second round effects, given the focus on the medium term.
The Week Ahead: 2-6 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
US - AI momentum overshadows and deepens labour weakness
- Macro economy
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The revision to labour market data brings it closer in line with sentiment. Core PCE inflation back at 3.0%, while CPI continues to slow to 2.5%. Headline GDP weaker than expected, but AI-investment fueled private demand holds up.
