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Kevin Warsh nominated to chair the Fed
- Macro economy
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Following some last minute doubts last week, Trump formally nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair. He was picked from a shortlist which also included National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, who briefly appeared to be the frontrunner earlier this week. It could be that he will have to take Stephen Miran’s spot at the Federal Reserve Board. Miran was put in place to finish Kugler’s term which ends on January 31st after she resigned from her position last year. It is unclear whether Trump will get another pick on the Fed board, as current chair Jay Powell has not confirmed whether he will vacate his board position after the chair position ends.
The Week Ahead - 31 January - 6 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
FOMC Watch - Firmer outlook heralds extended pause
- Macro economy
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As expected, the Fed decided to keep its policy rate in the 3.50-3.75% range. Miran and Waller dissented, while Bowman voted with the majority to hold. Waller was an interesting one as he has recently stated that the Fed wasn't in a rush to cut rates with inflation above target, but not dissenting would put a nail in the coffin of his Fed Chair aspirations. In the statement, the FOMC removed language on 'downside risks to employment rose in recent months,' and stated that the economy has been 'expanding at a solid pace,' while inflation 'remains somewhat elevated.' Powell noted that interest rates are now appropriate to promote progress towards both of the Fed goals.
The Week Ahead - 26 - 31 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US - Post-shutdown data fails to fully clear the fog
- Macro economy
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Post-shutdown data shows a further discrepancy between headline growth and the labour market. Inflation has been mixed, with surprisingly low shutdown period data, followed by a sharp rebound. We see a simple reorientation towards more productive sectors as the most likely explanation.
Spotlight - Geopolitical risk is back with a vengeance
- Macro economy
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Geopolitical risks have flared up in a dramatic fashion at the start of the year. We present a framework to analyse the main channels of impact for the economy. The Greenland dispute risks escalating economic warfare between the EU and the US and an undermining of NATO, while the risks surrounding Iran revolve around oil supply. Threats to Fed independence could destabilise inflation expectations, but Chair Powell remains defiant.
Global Monthly - Orange is the new Green
- Macro economy
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Geopolitical risk is increasingly dominating the outlook. The US-EU dispute over Greenland threatens a new tariff war – or worse. Over the next month, we will see just how far Trump is prepared to go to obtain Greenland, and whether Europe can stand its ground. We refrain from changing our base case given the fluidity of events, but uncertainty is clearly back with a vengeance, and the outlook less benign. Spotlight: We present a framework to analyse the main channels through which geopolitical risk impacts the economy.
Trump’s Greenland tariffs: Impact and possible EU response
- Macro economy
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President Trump announced new tariffs on European countries in response to their Greenland military exercise. There is substantial uncertainty around implementation of US tariffs, both practically and legally. The EU is preparing its response, and escalation risk is rising, but use of the Anti-Coercion Instrument is unlikely in the very near-term. A ‘backloading’ of EU-US exports could lead to a near-term growth dip in Europe, followed by a rebound. All of this hinges on whether the US actually follows through on its threats, and whether Europe meaningfully responds
The Week Ahead - 19 - 23 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Chair Powell subpoena puts near-term rate cuts at risk
- Macro economy
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The Federal Reserve has received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department regarding Jerome Powell’s June congressional testimony about renovations at the Fed’s headquarters. Last year, it became apparent that the Trump administration viewed these renovations as a potential way to challenge Chair Powell. In a video statement last night, Powell emphasized that “the threat (…) is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.” Meanwhile, Trump denied any knowledge of the investigation. A subpoena marks the beginning of an evidence-gathering process. This is an investigation, which may conclude without charges. If an indictment does occur, it will likely follow the precedent set by the Lisa Cook case, likely reaching the Supreme Court and taking considerable time.