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FOMC Watch - The dots move up, and Powell will be one of them
- Macro economy
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The Fed left rates unchanged as expected. The major headline was that four FOMC members dissented, a number not seen since the early 1990s. This made the final Powell FOMC meeting his most divided, and gives an interesting starting point for his successor, who was already expected to have some trouble building consensus behind him.
US - Two supply shocks, one inflation problem
- Macro economy
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Demand remains solid in the aggregate, and the labour market stays in its odd equilibrium. All eyes are on the inflation impact of the energy shock, but disinflation prospects were already limited.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz stand-off
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict has morphed from a hot war to an economic one, with both sides using the Hormuz chokepoint as negotiation leverage. Energy supply disruptions are bigger than ever, but market worries have subsided, with peace efforts given the benefit of the doubt. We make only incremental forecast adjustments this month, keeping our core view that severe energy disruptions persist to end-May. We also update our more positive and negative scenarios for the conflict.
Iran ceasefire - Is this a turning point?
- Natural resources
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A two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran offers a welcome pause and the prospect of renewed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. But much uncertainties remain, leaving risks of renewed disruption firmly on the horizon.
The Week Ahead: 6-10 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
US - Actions have consequences
- Macro economy
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Outside direct and indirect effects of the AI boom, the US economy grew at near stall speed in 2025. Low labour supply growth led to near-zero job creation, but also prevented unemployment from rising. With tariff inflation yet to dissipate, the Iran conflict generates another policy-induced inflation shock.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
A dovish Fed response may not be so terrible
- Macro economy
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The world economy is facing another cost-push shock. US household energy costs are set to rise sharply. This will further widen the K-shaped economy, as lower income households are forced to reduce spending immediately. A weak labour market reduces the risk of second round inflation effects. Demand weakness and second-round pressures may largely offset each other. Keeping rates fixed may very well be the appropriate response.
The Week Ahead: 16-20 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.