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China - Domestic imbalances worsening, trade tensions brewing
- Macro economy
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Supply-demand imbalances worsen amidst weak growth momentum. Beijing still seems to be taking a cautious approach towards fresh stimulus. US-China tensions resurface in run-up to Trump-Xi summit; tougher EU stance on China.
Global Monthly - Deal or no deal: Does it still matter?
- Macro economy
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The energy shock is back, but its impact more idiosyncratic than before. A lot of energy is getting through Hormuz ‘dark’, and this lowers the importance of a deal to re-open the Strait. Less important ≠ not important, and a deal would still help restore LNG flows, lower inflation and reduce European energy supply risks. Resurgent energy prices and stubborn inflation are keeping central banks on edge. Markets have probably gone too far pricing hikes…but the risk of more tightening than we currently expect has risen.
Supply shortage keeps oil and product prices firm
- Macro economy
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Oil prices have rebounded after tensions escalated and flows through the Strait have declined. The price impact has been limited by alternative export routes, dark transits, ship-to-ship transfers and high US oil production but crucially also lower demand. Oil demand declined by 6.8 million barrels per day between end-2025 and June 2026, with China and Asia accounting for most of the fall. A near-term deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily lower oil prices, but the market is still expected to remain tight. Later in the year, recovering Asian demand, higher refinery activity and the need to rebuild low inventories are expected to support higher oil prices before a more sustainable decline next year. Because of a near-term deal some refinery capacity will likely come back online. But constrained refinery capacity, and higher demand for products will keep prices elevated.
Global trade and industry - Ongoing strength despite bottlenecks
- Macro economy
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Global trade growth remarkably strong in first half of 2026… supported by the ongoing global AI boom/capex troika, resilient consumer spending, a fading tariff drag and trade rerouting, and stockpiling following the Iran conflict. Manufacturing PMIs also point to ongoing strength in global industry and trade. Our global supply bottlenecks index has risen to a post-pandemic high. Bottlenecks are adding to inflationary pressures.
China: Weak July data add to urgency of support
- Macro economy
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July activity data show a weakening across the board, with domestic supply-demand imbalances worsening. This means that the urgency of adding policy support is rising again
Global industry and trade quite resilient, partly helped by AI boom
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI drops a bit in June, but remains well in expansion mode. Decline in June driven by advanced economies. Global trade accelerated in early 2026, supported by AI boom, slowed during Iran conflict. Delivery times and container tariffs have driven our global supply bottlenecks index higher. Price subindices ease on falling energy prices in June, but stay relatively high for now.
China: Balance of risks improves; imbalances get worse
- Macro economy
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Hit from energy shock offset by strong exports on the back of global tech/AI boom. China managed energy shock quite well; officially reported oil imports sharply down in April/May. Balance of risks to our growth forecasts is improving, but supply-demand imbalances are rising.
Global Monthly - Teflon economy shaking off another shock
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of persistent shocks. The AI boom, defence spending and the energy transition ‘capex troika’ are likely to continue supporting growth going forward. Still, AI bubble risk, and sovereign debt dynamics remain a worry.
Global industry: Still solid, but with more divergence and disturbances
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI for May steady at four-year high. However, we see more divergence between countries/regions. The supply side held up better than the demand side in May. Disturbances drive our global supply bottlenecks index further into ‘excess demand’ territory. Cost price pressures from global industry are on the rise.
China - Protecting the fragile US-China truce
- Macro economy
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Notwithstanding solid Q1 GDP and ongoing strong foreign trade... April macro data are a reminder that China is cushioned, but not immune to the Iran conflict. US-China presidential summit reduces (but not fully takes away) tail risks.
