Our research
Access all our publications and columns. Use the filters to easily find what content you are looking for.
All publications
The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 9 - 13 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - May PMIs reminder of high tariffs
Trade war escalation still visible in Caixin’s manufacturing PMI.… a reminder of much higher US import tariffs despite Geneva-truce. Official composite PMI picks up slightly.
The Week Ahead - 2 - 6 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - Geneva truce softens export shock, but uncertainty remains
April data show impact of trade war escalation last month, before Geneva truce. (Temporary) reduction of tariffs softens key drag, although uncertainty remains high. We raise our annual growth forecasts for 2025/ 2026 to 4.7% (from 4.1%) and 4.2% (from 3.9%).
Global Monthly - Are we past the worst with tariffs?
The US-China trade truce shows that there are limits in how far the Trump administration is prepared go in implementing its radical trade agenda. We expect significant tariffs to remain in place, and this will weigh on growth in the near term. However, the trough in growth is likely to be shallower, and the downside risks significantly reduced. We lay out our forecast changes on the back of recent developments. Spotlight: Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill is highly regressive, puts upward pressure on bond yields, and risks amplifying economic downturns.
Key views Global Monthly May 2025
The US and China have significantly de-escalated their trade war, bringing bilateral tariffs of 145% (on Chinese exports) and 125% (on US exports) down to 30% and 10% respectively. However, global trade is still likely to slow sharply as the tariffs that remain take their toll, and frontloading effects unwind, while the global economy (especially the US) will be weighed by extreme policy uncertainty. Interest rate cuts and other forms of policy support are a cushioning factor in the eurozone and China, while in the eurozone specifically, defence spending, and in Germany new infrastructure spending will support growth in 2026. Still, the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China face downside risks from weaker confidence, while in the US, demand will be hit by the tariff impact on real incomes. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. This is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with Fed policy staying on hold until 2026, and the ECB continuing to cut rates.
China - April data show hit from trade war pre-Geneva
April data confirm hit from trade war escalation last month. Growth momentum expected to pick up again following Geneva truce, but uncertainty remains.
The Week Ahead - 19 - 23 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
FX Weekly - New USD/CNY forecasts
Tariff de-escalation supports US dollar versus FX majors. This comes at a time when the dollar was already recovering. The recovery could continue, but we expect the long-term downtrend in the dollar to remain in place. We downgrade USD/CNY from 7.80 to 7.30 for end-2025.