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China - Geneva truce softens export shock, but uncertainty remains
April data show impact of trade war escalation last month, before Geneva truce. (Temporary) reduction of tariffs softens key drag, although uncertainty remains high. We raise our annual growth forecasts for 2025/ 2026 to 4.7% (from 4.1%) and 4.2% (from 3.9%).
US - Tariffs have entered the hard data
‘Soft’ consumer and business confidence data deteriorated rapidly due to US government policy. ‘Hard’ data has held up better, partly due to frontloading effects from the tariffs. But now the negative impact is starting to show in the hard data as well.
The Netherlands - Uncertainty seeping into growth figures
Q1 GDP growth slowed to 0.1% q/q – a poor start to the year before the tariffs hit. We have lowered our growth forecasts to 1.2% for 2025 (was 1.4%) and 1.0% for 2026 (was 1.3%). In addition to the direct and indirect impact of tariffs, uncertainty is also weighing on our forecasts.
Eurozone - After solid momentum, tariffs to cause moderation
While a US-EU trade deal remains uncertain, US-China de-escalation is constructive for the EZ outlook. The recovery is subdued due to tariffs in the near term; fiscal policy raises growth outlook in 2026. Disinflationary forces mean the ECB is likely to cut rates further to 1.5% by September.
Global Monthly - May 25 - Are we past the worst with tariffs?
The US-China trade truce shows that there are limits in how far the Trump administration is prepared go in implementing its radical trade agenda. We expect significant tariffs to remain in place, and this will weigh on growth in the near term. However, the trough in growth is likely to be shallower, and the downside risks significantly reduced. We lay out our forecast changes on the back of recent developments. Spotlight: Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill is highly regressive, puts upward pressure on bond yields, and risks amplifying economic downturns.
Macro Watch - A wage-price spiral is now much less likely
Wage growth, and the risk that it could keep inflation elevated, is now much less of a worry than early last year. In the eurozone, current wage growth is still elevated, but leading indicators point to a sharp decline this year, and businesses have been absorbing wage growth into their margins. We therefore see the risk of a wage-price spiral to now be very low. In the Netherlands we also expect an easing in wage pressures, albeit a more gradual one. In the US, wage growth was less of a worry to begin with; that remains so, but the recent spike in inflation expectations bears watching.
Gas Market Monitor - Lower uncertainty with relaxed storage targets
We expect European gas prices to barely move in the coming months as long as there is no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. European gas prices have been responsive to the developments in the peace talks. Lower LNG competition from Asia, less stringent storage requirements, along with favorable weather conditions have put a lid on prices. Therefore the market has become less bullish. But the market remains tight. Volatility could emerge from adverse weather conditions, more geopolitical tensions, or prospect of substantial supply disruptions.
The Week Ahead - 26 - 30 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
NL Update – Netherlands also imports negative effects of international uncertainty
The trade war, US import tariffs and geopolitical risk cast a shadow over economic expectations. Uncertainty about major policy changes negatively affects the economy even without actual changes. This uncertainty likely causes Dutch companies to invest less and households to save more, at the expense of consumption. This while the savings rate was already elevated. The Dutch economy is more affected by US policy uncertainty than the broader eurozone. However, policy uncertainty from the EU also negatively affects domestic demand.
ESG Economist - Pressure on energy-intensive industry still high
This publication focuses on three factors that increase production costs: energy prices, environmental taxes on gas and electricity, and the CO2 levy. First, we examine the trend in margins for highly energy-intensive companies and industrial companies that are less energy-intensive. We also look at the impact of fossil energy consumption versus energy prices. Next, we examine environmental taxes – including in an international context – and the impact of the CO2 levy on Dutch industry. Finally, we look at deindustrialisation in the Netherlands and the extent to which this has already become a reality. We also investigate how the government's announced relief measures could affect the sustainability of the sector. We will end this note with a conclusion. (Photo by Mario Caruso on Unsplash)