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Euro not yet an issue for the ECB
- Macro economy
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The ECB has been saying for months that interest rates are in a good place, and today it repeated this message following its Governing Council meeting.
ESG Economist - Netherlands' emissions gap towards 2030 is growing despite progress
- Sustainability
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The Netherlands is decarbonising, and the transition is in full swing. However, the pace of the transition to a low-carbon economy is not yet sufficient to achieve the climate targets that have been set. This analysis highlights the shortfall and examines the reasons behind it. Among other things, we see that there are numerous initiatives to decarbonise and that many best practices can now be identified. However, the sectors responsible for the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions – the energy-intensive sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) – still face a major challenge in becoming low-carbon. For many companies in these sectors, decarbonisation solutions are often within reach, but it is the preconditions that often create obstacles. In this analysis, we first examine the trend of a number of sustainability indicators for the Dutch economy and the current state in reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) in various sectors. In doing so, we look at, among other things, the feasibility of the 2030 climate target per sector. We then take a closer look at the portion of emissions covered by the EU ETS and how energy-intensive sectors in industry are performing. Specific industrial climate targets are discussed, including the most obvious decarbonisation options. We end this analysis with a conclusion.
Global manufacturing shrugs off geopolitics
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI improved in January despite flaring-up of geopolitical tensions. After having coming down somewhat in the last few months of 2025, the global manufacturing PMI started 2026 on a bit stronger note, moving back up by 0.4 points to 50.9 in January. This implies that according to this survey, global manufacturing stayed in expansion mode for the sixth consecutive month, following some US tariff-related weakness in mid-2025. The improvement in January was clearly led by developed markets (DMs), for which the aggregate index rose by almost a full point to 51.4, the highest reading since June 2022. The aggregate for emerging markets (EMs) also improved, but only marginally, to a three-month high of 50.6.
Dutch manufacturing sector struggling with decline in new orders
- Macro economy
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The Dutch manufacturing sector has had a weak start to the new year. For the first time in eight months, the number of new orders fell, although exports picked up slightly. The Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI fell by a full point to 50.1, indicating less favourable conditions.
Eurozone inflation undershoots in runup to ECB meeting; NL inflation eases
- Macro economy
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The preliminary estimate for January Eurozone HICP inflation eased to 1.7% y/y compared to 1.9% in December, in line with our and consensus expectation. Core inflation fell to 2.2% y/y from 2.3%. The slight drop in headline inflation was already signalled by regional inflation releases. We saw inflation easing in Spain (2.4% y/y, down from 2.9%) and in Italy (1% y/y from 1.2% in December) and in the Netherlands (see below). French inflation hit a trough at 0.4% y/y (0.7% in December). Germany on the contrary saw inflation slightly picking up pace to 2.1% y/y (2% in December).
Gas Market Monitor - Storage strains and LNG shifts
- Sustainability
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The European gas market continues to experience sharp fluctuations in early 2026. These fluctuations reflect an ongoing transformation, shaped by weather volatility, evolving financial trading patterns, and the rapid expansion of global LNG supply. Recent developments have underscored key challenges, including critically low storage levels and persistently high prices. A notable feature of the market in January has been the steep backwardation of TTF futures curves, where the spread between month-ahead and year-ahead contracts has reached record highs. This trend highlights traders' acute concerns about near-term supply constraints and reflects the ongoing pressure from below-average storage levels. Despite these challenges, Europe’s commitment to diversifying its energy sources and rebuilding inventories demonstrates a clear focus on achieving long-term market stability and energy security. TTF month ahead contract is trading at 32.7 EUR/MWh at the time of writing.
ESG Economist - Europe leads climate race, but march to net zero is far from won
- Sustainability
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To achieve a real acceleration in decarbonisation, both energy production and consumption must switch to renewable and low-carbon energy sources at an accelerated pace. However, this process is still slow and faces some persistent obstacles, including grid congestion, staff shortages, financing challenges, and the often complex and volatile regulations in many countries. Despite the scaling back and reversal of climate policy in many countries – led by the United States (US) – the European Union (EU) remains committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, as laid down in the European Climate Law. This further increases the differences in decarbonisation paths between countries/regions and pushes climate targets further out of reach. In this analysis, we examine the current state of play in these decarbonisation paths of the most important countries worldwide and of the EU-27 in particular. What are the trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of countries and what differences are visible? What goals are the largest GHG-emitting countries pursuing with their climate policies and where does the EU-27 stand in this regard? How does final energy consumption (fossil fuel share) relate to GHG emissions and the trend in energy efficiency? And is the pace of GHG emission reduction (post-Paris Agreement) sufficient to ultimately achieve the EU's climate targets? We end this analysis with a conclusion.
Dutch cabinet ambitious but dependent on opposition
- Macro economy
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• D66, VVD and CDA are forming a Dutch minority cabinet lacking a majority in both parliament and the senate, policy making will remain a challenge and dependent upon opposition buy-in • The coalition agreement seeks to rebalance consumption and investment spending, in favour of the latter. For instance more will be spent on defence and housing, at the cost of healthcare and social security • The agreement limits the budget deficit at 2% of GDP, perhaps also to leave room for opposition wishes. • This cabinet is shifting towards a more constructive stance towards Europe • The Netherlands will be put back on track to meet the EU Climate Law targets, with likely strong opposition support
Kevin Warsh nominated to chair the Fed
- Macro economy
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Following some last minute doubts last week, Trump formally nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair. He was picked from a shortlist which also included National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, who briefly appeared to be the frontrunner earlier this week. It could be that he will have to take Stephen Miran’s spot at the Federal Reserve Board. Miran was put in place to finish Kugler’s term which ends on January 31st after she resigned from her position last year. It is unclear whether Trump will get another pick on the Fed board, as current chair Jay Powell has not confirmed whether he will vacate his board position after the chair position ends.
The Week Ahead - 31 January - 6 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
