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Dutch elections - Consensus for high deficits
- Macro economy
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The Dutch head to the ballot box on the 29th of October in an important election after a period of political turmoil. Polls signal quite some shifts, with far-right PVV as election winner once again, though it is deemed unlikely they will enter a new coalition. While still very uncertain, with centre parties, such as the CDA, winning, a more centrist government looks increasingly feasible. Party programmes share a consensus for large deficits, putting longer term public finances under pressure. Chances of a coalition with a more constructive stance towards the EU and traditionally sensitive issues, such as joint financing, have increased.
Fed Watch – Frontloaded easing increases inflation risks
- Macro economy
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Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting. He stated that the economic outlook appeared unchanged since the FOMC last met in September. Then, they lowered interest rates by 25 bps due to downside risks to a weakening labour market, even if the weakening is largely being driven by the supply side.
ESG Economist - Are we ambitious enough to protect nature?
- Sustainability
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In our previous note [1], we introduced the topic of nature and biodiversity loss, reflecting on what biodiversity loss could mean for the economy, households, and the financial system. In this follow-up note, we focus specifically on the European Union (EU). We examine past trends in nature and biodiversity across the continent, review key EU policies designed to halt biodiversity loss, with an emphasis on nature-related transition risks, and provide an outlook for the future.
Podcast - The importance of the Federal Reserve independence
- Macro economy
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In the first episode of ABN AMRO's new macroeconomic podcast, Bill Diviney (Head of Macro Research) and US economist Rogier Quaedvlieg dive into the recent attacks on Federal Reserve independence.
Gas Market Monitor - Winter approaches and gas markets exhale
- Macro economy
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Europe has filled 83% of gas storage, boosted by lower Asian LNG competition, increasing confidence for winter. Despite this, supply constraints persist until early 2026, when new capacity from the US and Canada is expected to ease the market. European industrial demand weakens amid global economic slowdown and tariffs, with recovery expected in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus. TTF prices remain sensitive to Middle East or other peace talks, sanctions, US-China trade war, and supply disruptions. Our outlook for Q4 year ahead contract to average around 38 EUR/MWh before easing in 2026.
The Week Ahead - 13 - 17 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Industrial production volume continues to grow due to domestic demand
- Macro economy
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The Nevi Purchasing Managers' Index for the Dutch manufacturing industry rose further from 51.9 to 53.7 in September. Despite few new export orders caused by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade polices, the industrial production volume increased due to domestic demand, necessitating the swift hiring of additional staff.
ESG Economist - Is carbon capture economically viable?
- Sustainability
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To achieve the global goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to below 2°C (preferably 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels, we need a mix of solutions. These include reducing CO₂ emissions, capturing emissions directly from combustion, and removing CO₂ from the atmosphere. While much focus has been on reducing emissions (like using renewable energy or sustainable fuels), carbon capture and storage (CCS) is gaining attention, especially for hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry and transport (shipping).
Global manufacturing: Still expanding, rising delivery times
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI for September more or less stable compared to August. On the global scale, supply conditions are still stronger than demand conditions. Delivery times to DMs have lengthened, mainly for US, but shipping tariffs are coming down.
The Week Ahead - 6 - 10 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.