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The Week Ahead - 14 - 18 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US - ICE melts GDP growth
Following the June labour market report, Stephen Miran, head of the Council of Economic Advisors, stated somewhat proudly that native-born Americans have been driving job growth since Trump took office, rather than foreign-born workers under Biden. The combination of a crackdown on illegal immigration, ICE raids (who’s funding just increased from roughly $8 billion to about $75 billion in the OBBBA), and a voluntary reduction in immigration by the rest of the world, has drastically changed the labour market outlook. This has implications for the Fed’s employment mandate as well as potential GDP growth.
ESG Economist - EU: Road to 2030 climate targets still bumpy
Europe is striving to do its part in the effort to limit global warming. The first hurdle on the road to meeting the target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 is meeting the EU climate and energy targets for 2030. The next hurdle is setting new intermediate targets for 2040. It is likely that chances of successfully setting a credible and sufficient 2040 target are influenced by the chances of meeting the 2030 target, as climate action will have to be stepped up during the period 2030-2040 in case the 2030 targets were missed. This note focuses on the probabilities of meeting the 2030 targets, based on the European Commission’s evaluation of the latest National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of the individual Member States.
ESG Economist - Understanding European Social Housing Through a Comparative Lens
According to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, everyone has the right to housing, regardless of their employment status, health, or other conditions. In this note we dive deeper into the structures of social housing in four European countries: the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Germany and France.
Global manufacturing - Riding the tariff rollercoaster
Global manufacturing PMI rose back to expansion territory in June … The global manufacturing PMI rose back to expansion territory in June (50.3), after having dipped below the neutral 50 mark separating expansion from contraction in April/May. The pattern was broad-based amongst developed economies (DMs) and emerging economies (EMs), with the average for DMs down in March and up again since May and the average for EMs down in April/May and up again in June.
US – Big Beautiful Bill adds to soaring debt
Yesterday, the House passed the senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The Senate version broadly follows the same lines we’ve described before, but is even bigger. Rather than the initial estimate of $3.3 trillion added to federal debt over the next ten years, the bill now adds about $4.1 trillion to debt as written, $5.5 trillion if made permanent. The latter is a likely outcome, as the OBBBA is itself a law to make the 2017 TCJA tax cuts permanent. That is important, because it means that large parts of this bill should not be viewed as much as fiscal stimulus, but rather a lack of fiscal contraction, providing no further boost to the current economy. Half a trillion of the increase in the Senate version comes from reviving the TCJA business provisions, such as 100% bonus depreciation for equipment and domestic R&E expensing, which were already being phased out since 2022.
The Week Ahead - 7 - 11 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - Focus in US-China talks shifts from tariffs to chokepoints
Chinese economy shows resilience after US-China truce, but supply side still stronger than demand side. China-US relations: Damage control in place, focus shifts from overall tariffs to chokepoints. Support is being delayed given resilience, but we still expect more to come to support demand.
US - The Fed’s resistance is crumbling
Fed governers’ claims to be able to ease by July are likely politically motivated. Still, with pressure mounting, FOMC members increasingly signal openness to a September cut. The risk of easing too soon remains, with little sign of inflation, while economic slowdown visible.
The Netherlands - Political turmoil amid economic resilience
Q1 GDP revisions suggest a more positive start to 2025, lifting our annual forecast from 1.2% to 1.6%. Tariffs will weigh on activity in the near term, directly and indirectly via main trading partners. The Dutch government fell, adding domestic policy uncertainty amid elevated international uncertainty. With elections on 29 October, 2026 will be well underway before a new government is installed.