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Dutch Macro - Political turmoil increases further heading into the Dutch elections
- Macro economy
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Today marked yet another tumultuous day in Dutch politics. The troubled Schoof cabinet, which already had a caretaker status since the far-right PVV quit the coalition early June over migration, saw another coalition member quit last Friday. The recently formed, centre-right NSC, which is under pressure due to very unfavourable polling, quit the coalition over imposing tougher measures on Israel due to the war in Gaza. This leaves the Schoof cabinet, consisting now of only the centre-right liberal VVD and the right-wing BBB, with just 32 seats (76 needed for a majority). A coalition party quitting a caretaker government is unprecedented in the Netherlands and set Dutch politics on an unclear path ahead. The outcome of today’s debate in Parliament on the way forward was that, despite the slim majority, with elections near, there is no support for a vote of no confidence, this would only increase political instability, not decrease it. Instead, the coalition continues, as it stands now until a new government is formed, with the VVD and the BBB filling the vacant ministerial posts.
ABN AMRO Euro Rates Watch - France’s Government Faces Collapse and Markets React
- Macro economy
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Yesterday, French Prime Minister François Bayrou announced that a no-confidence vote will be held on September 8th. This comes in the wake of the ongoing political impasse, a phenomenon we have been highlighting for some time.
Jackson Hole - Powell releases inner dove, Trump releases threat
- Macro economy
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Powell gave his final annual speech at Jackson Hole last Friday. The chair’s annual speech has often been used to signal policy shifts, and this year was no different. So let us start with the bombshell statement in the speech: 'The stability of the unemployment rate and other labour market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.'
US – Stacking the board: how much can Trump influence the Fed?
- Macro economy
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Perhaps emboldened by the opportunities offered by Kugler’s departure, team Trump expanded the attack on the Fed’s board. After consistent pressure on Chair Powell, they have now targeted Fed Governor Lisa Cook, exposing alleged mortgage fraud, and calling on her to step down. This would offer an additional slot for Trump to fill. With Waller and Bowman quite openly aligning with Trump’s monetary policy wishes, another governor slot would lead to four out of seven board governors blatantly supporting Trump’s wish to cut rates, and some might go further in supporting Trump’s policy wishes. The attack on Cook is the first signal that the Trump administration is casting the net wider, exploring all options to increase their influence on the Fed. Would this majority matter?
The Week Ahead - 25 August - 5 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming 2 weeks.
Global economic forecasts as of 20 August 2025
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China - After resilience comes the slowdown … and more support
- Macro economy
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Q2 GDP data showed a remarkable resilience, with exports holding up despite tariff war … but recent activity data confirm domestic imbalances, and weakening growth momentum. Beijing focuses on ‘excessive competition’; additional demand support still likely.
US - AI boom catches private demand bust
- Macro economy
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The US economy slowed sharply in the first half of this year, only held up by the AI boom. Consumption has slowed down and the consumer is under increasing pressure. Private demand has all but stalled, with two thirds of growth coming from investment in data centers.
The Netherlands - Heading into budget and election season
- Macro economy
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Q2 GDP came in at 0.1% q/q, roughly in line with our expectations (0.2% q/q), leading to small tweaks to our annual forecast of 1.5% in 2025 (from 1.6%) and 1.1% in 2026 (from 1.3%). Tariffs will weigh on activity in the near term, directly and indirectly via main trading partners. 2026 growth benefits from rate cuts, solid demand and fiscal spending in main trading partner Germany. After summer, it is all eyes on the Hague, with the caretaker government presenting the 2026 budget, and the election campaign ahead of the 29 October elections.
Eurozone - Spreading the pain
- Macro economy
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The tariff shock is unfolding more gradually, with a milder but more prolonged growth hit. The impact is also blunted by solid consumption, helped by falling rates and benign inflation. The ECB is now expected to look through the undershoot of its 2% inflation target. This means no further rate cuts on our forecast horizon, and the deposit rate holding at 2% for the foreseeable future.
