SustainaWeekly - Share of zero-emission passenger cars continues to rise
The Dutch government has set a policy that every new car to be sold from 2030 onwards has to be a zero-emission car, compared to 20% last year. However, a key obstacle is that battery electric cars are much more expensive to buy even taking into account government subsidies.
Introduction
In 2021 the mobility sector in the Netherlands was responsible for 30.8 Megaton of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions including 30.1 megaton CO2 emissions. This was 18% of the total greenhouse gas emissions and 21% of the total CO2 emissions in 2021. Road transport is the biggest emitter. It is responsible for around 85% of the total emissions of the mobility sector. Passenger cars emit around half of the total of mobility. It is clear therefore that to bring down greenhouse gas emissions the mobility sector needs to play a significant role. In this note we look at what needs to happen, how it aligns with policy plans and some of the obstacles.
Share of zero-emission passenger cars continues to rise…
The Netherlands has set a policy that every new car to be sold from 2030 onwards has to be a zero-emission car. This can be battery electric car or a fuel cell electric car. At the end of August 2022 the car fleet was around 8.87 million passenger cars and around 440,000 new passenger cars are sold annually (average 2005-2021). The fleet of battery electric cars stood at 296,522 passenger cars and 562 fuel cell electric cars at the end of August 2022 (). In 2030 the amount of zero-emission new passenger cars should be equal to the now total sold new passenger cars of around 440,000. To get there, the share in sales of battery electric passenger cars needs to rise substantially from 20% in 2021 () to 100% in 2030 – in just 9 years (see graphs below).
Currently a fleet of 8.87 million passenger cars is responsible for roughly 15.4 megaton greenhouse gas emissions in 2021. In 2030 the fleet of cars that emit greenhouse gasses is expected to be 5.8 million passenger cars. The total greenhouse gas emissions of these 5.8 million passenger cars will likely be around 10.8 megaton. So, by introducing the measure that all new passenger cars in 2030 have to be zero-emission cars, greenhouse gas emission will probably drop from 15.4 megaton to 10.8 megaton or a reduction of 4.6 megaton by 2030. The Coalition Agreement included green measures for personal transport and the way of travel. Sustainable urban logistics and freight traffic are also supported, the rollout of charging infrastructure is accelerated and blending of sustainable biofuels will be encouraged. Moreover it increases taxes on air travel. In 2030 the government will also introduce pay for use for all cars (Betalen naar Gebruik).
Battery electric cars are much more expensive to buy even taking into account government subsidies. The average purchase cost in 2021 was EUR 51.000 while the average price of petrol car was around EUR 10.000-15.000 lower. The government buying incentive program is considerably lower than the price gap. So it is still on average more expensive to buy an electric car than to buy a petrol car. However, the running costs per 100km are lower. These costs depend on the electricity costs (including or excluding charging at home with solar panels) versus the fuel price. Moreover government policy also determines the running costs. To achieve the goal of getting more zero-emission passenger cars on the road, purchase costs will have to fall so that electric driving becomes accessible to a large number of people.
…as well as the number of charging points
The total number of charging points has increased to 102,463 in August. There are 63,414 regular public charging points that are 24/7 publicly accessible, 39,049 semi- regular semi-public charging points and 3,345 fast charging points. Regular charging points (public and semi-public) have smaller or equal than 22kW capacity while fast charging points have larger than 22 kW (). There are also an estimated 270,000 private charging points. The RVO published a survey on charging in the Netherlands (National Laadonderzoek). According to this survey, 68% of electric car users have solar panels and 95% of this group would like to use solar power for charging or are already doing so.
Currently there are 6.1 cars (BEV, PHEV) per public and semi-public charging points. If we also take into account the private charging points then there are 1.7 cars per charging point. In China this is 5 cars per charging point and in Germany 12 cars per charging point. So looking at other countries the number of charging points should currently be enough. However, in densely-populated areas where there is also limited possibility for private charging points, it is likely that the number of cars (BEV, PHEV) per charging point is much higher and that there are not sufficient charging points. The government aims to have 1.8 million public, semi-public and private charging station in 2030. Meanwhile, there are 7 hydrogen fuelling stations and 3 under construction. This means around 80 fuel cell cars per fuelling station.