Our research

Iran ceasefire - Is this a turning point?

A two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran offers a welcome pause and the prospect of renewed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. But much uncertainties remain, leaving risks of renewed disruption firmly on the horizon.

Global industry impacted by Iran conflict

Global manufacturing PMI comes down again in March on escalation of Iran conflict. Relatively strong readings for developed economies flattered by rising delivery times. These are indicative for a broad re-emergence of supply bottlenecks, and rising inflationary pressures.

Rates Strategist - Belgium among EU’s most energy-vulnerable economies

In light of what is shaping up to be one of the biggest global energy supply shocks in history, the question arises on how exposed EU countries are to potential energy shocks. In this note, we assess such exposure by looking at both dependency—how much nations rely on external sources for their oil and gas—and resilience, meaning their capacity to withstand and adapt to disruptions or price surges. By examining these factors, we can better understand which countries face the greatest risks and which demonstrate stronger ability to cope with sudden changes in energy supply or cost.

The Week Ahead: 6-10 April 2026

These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.

Top of Mind Webinar - Banks and private credit

Eurozone inflation surges; ECB to hike in April

Eurozone inflation jumped in March to 2.5% y/y from 1.9% in February, in line with our forecast but a touch below consensus (2.6%). Core inflation in contrast moderated to 2.3%, in line with our forecast but also below consensus (2.4%). The rise was driven by a surge in petrol prices, as the rise in oil prices passed through to pump prices. This caused overall energy inflation to swing from a drag of -3.1% y/y in February to a 4.9% rise in March. Other categories of inflation were however comparatively muted, with food (2.3%), goods (0.5%), and services inflation (3.2%) all moderating. All of this reflects pre-Iran conflict inflation dynamics and we are likely to see a renewed pickup in these categories as the year progresses.

Dutch manufacturing sector reports highest inflation since 2022

The war in the Middle East is leading to a new wave of inflation, according to the first Nevi Dutch Manufacturing survey since the beginning of the war. Both purchase and output prices are rising at the fastest pace in more than three years.

Housing market monitor - Uncertainty is slowing the housing market

We expect home prices to rise 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. Income growth and limited supply still outweigh rising mortgage rates. We expect the number of transactions to fall 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. The decline in the number of transactions is linked to growing uncertainty and a limited number of newly added homes.

The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026

These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.

Global economic forecasts as of 25 March 2026

Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.