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Dutch cabinet ambitious but dependent on opposition
- Macro economy
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• D66, VVD and CDA are forming a Dutch minority cabinet lacking a majority in both parliament and the senate, policy making will remain a challenge and dependent upon opposition buy-in • The coalition agreement seeks to rebalance consumption and investment spending, in favour of the latter. For instance more will be spent on defence and housing, at the cost of healthcare and social security • The agreement limits the budget deficit at 2% of GDP, perhaps also to leave room for opposition wishes. • This cabinet is shifting towards a more constructive stance towards Europe • The Netherlands will be put back on track to meet the EU Climate Law targets, with likely strong opposition support
Eurozone economy stayed resilient at the end of 2025
- Macro economy
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Q4 growth figures in the eurozone suprise to the upside in the final quarter of 2025.
Kevin Warsh nominated to chair the Fed
- Macro economy
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Following some last minute doubts last week, Trump formally nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair. He was picked from a shortlist which also included National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, who briefly appeared to be the frontrunner earlier this week. It could be that he will have to take Stephen Miran’s spot at the Federal Reserve Board. Miran was put in place to finish Kugler’s term which ends on January 31st after she resigned from her position last year. It is unclear whether Trump will get another pick on the Fed board, as current chair Jay Powell has not confirmed whether he will vacate his board position after the chair position ends.
The Week Ahead - 31 January - 6 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
FOMC Watch - Firmer outlook heralds extended pause
- Macro economy
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As expected, the Fed decided to keep its policy rate in the 3.50-3.75% range. Miran and Waller dissented, while Bowman voted with the majority to hold. Waller was an interesting one as he has recently stated that the Fed wasn't in a rush to cut rates with inflation above target, but not dissenting would put a nail in the coffin of his Fed Chair aspirations. In the statement, the FOMC removed language on 'downside risks to employment rose in recent months,' and stated that the economy has been 'expanding at a solid pace,' while inflation 'remains somewhat elevated.' Powell noted that interest rates are now appropriate to promote progress towards both of the Fed goals.
ESG Economist - Higher material costs for clean tech put pressure on the transition
- Natural resources
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In the transition to a climate-neutral economy, the need for low-carbon technologies will increase further, which will also increase demand for the metals that are essential for manufacturing these technologies. It therefore remains important to continue to monitor trends in this area in order to gain a clear picture of the opportunities and risks. The energy transition is putting increasing pressure on many metal markets. Increasingly, quantities of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium will be needed in the coming years. In some cases, this will lead to shortages, but in most cases, supply will be more than sufficient to meet demand. In this analysis, we highlight a number of dominant critical or strategic metals that are necessary and, above all, indispensable in the energy transition. We distinguish between ‘required’ transition metals (the truly indispensable metals) and the ‘relevant’ transition metals (slightly less indispensable). We show which metals are particularly important for the production of four main clean technologies and calculate the impact of the trend in metal prices on the material costs for producing these clean technologies. Finally, we look at how demand for these metals is expected to develop in the coming years in various IEA scenarios and what influence could the supply-demand balance of these metals have on the price trend for energy transition metals. We end this analysis with a conclusion.
Top of Mind - Will the rising euro trigger ECB cuts? Probably not
- Macro economy
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The euro has broken the 1.20 mark vs the dollar in recent days, having risen around 4% over the past week. This has prompted speculation – helped by remarks of some Governing Council members – that the ECB might have to cut rates at some point to offset the tightening of financial conditions that comes with a rising euro. So far, at least, this looks unlikely given the type of move we have seen in the euro.
The Week Ahead - 26 - 31 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Oil Market Monitor - Geopolitics drive volatility amid supply glut
- Natural resources
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The downward trend in oil prices was reversed in 2026 as markets responded to rapid geopolitical developments. The overthrow of Venezuela's leadership, new U.S. sanctions on Iran, ongoing threats against the Iranian regime, and the slow progress in peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine have all contributed to an increase in the geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude prices. Despite these pressures, the surplus in oil supply has helped to cap further price increases. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has maintained its decision to pause production increases for the first quarter of the year. Global demand has proven more resilient than anticipated, though the outlook remains clouded by growing tensions between the U.S. and the EU over Greenland, including the potential for new U.S. tariffs and possible EU retaliation. Given the rising geopolitical uncertainties and the dynamic nature of recent events, we choose to leave our outlook unchanged for now. At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading at $64.1 per barrel.
Global economic forecasts as of 21 January 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
