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FOMC Watch - Fed will lower rates, but shouldn’t
- Macro economy
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The Fed is set to reduce the policy rate by 25 bps in next week’s FOMC meeting. Throughout the year, the Fed has been in ‘wait-and-see’ mode, awaiting hard data on the impact of tariffs, to see which side of the mandate requires more urgent attention. In recent months the Fed has felt increasing pressure from the Trump administration and markets (who may be pricing in that political pressure) to support the labour market and start easing. The labour market seemed to be gradually cooling, but the two non-farm payroll releases since the last FOMC meeting changed the story. Weak monthly job gains, and a substantial negative revision to the months before now show a picture of an almost stalling labour market. This makes a 25 bps cut next week essentially inevitable. While we do not think a ‘recalibration’ of 25 bps towards neutral will materially affect the outlook, we do think a forward-looking Fed should rather keep rates on hold.
China Macro - Another month of weak data
- Macro economy
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China Macro: Fixed investment growth weakest since 2020. Other macro data also point to a slowdown in growth momentum. All this adds to policymakers’ sense of urgency to add stimulus to safeguard growth.
The Week Ahead - 15 - 19 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ECB set to stay on hold, despite inflation undershoot
- Macro economy
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The ECB kept its policy rates on hold in September, for the second consecutive meeting.
Hot summer to fuel eurozone inflation
- Macro economy
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The short-term impact of climate change on inflation often is analysed by looking at transition risks, such as the impact of carbon pricing and its consequences for energy price inflation. For instance, in its December 2024 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the eurozone[1], the ECB estimates that national green discretionary fiscal measures (e.g. carbon pricing and energy taxes) added 0.2 percentage points to eurozone inflation in 2024 and will add a similar amount in 2025. Moreover, ECB staff project that the expansion of emissions trading to heating of buildings and transportation could add up to 0.4pp[2] to inflation in 2027. In contrast to transition policies, the impact of acute and chronic physical climate risks on inflation is considered to be significant only in the medium to longer term. Still, climate and weather-related hazards, such as temperature extremes, storms, floods, drought and wildfires is rising and its economic damage are increasing. Consequently, global food prices have occasionally been lifted by extreme climate and weather-related events. As climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of various extreme weather events in the coming years, the impact on inflation should also become more significant. In this note we analyse the short-term impact of acute physical climate risk on food prices and headline inflation in the eurozone.
ESG Strategist – EU ETS costs will not eat into company’s profits
- Sustainability
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In this note, we analyze the impact of increasing ETS prices on companies’ results from the sectors under EU ETS and EU ETS2. According to our results, the impact on the electricity sector is quite benign, especially if we consider that the cost pass through is limited to 42%.
The Week Ahead - 8 - 12 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US - Labour market grinds to a halt, September cut inevitable
- Macro economy
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Non-farm payrolls gained a mere 22k, well below consensus forecasts of 75k. The most hotly anticipated labour market report in at least a year released on time after a BLS statement flagging technical issues ahead of the release. Private payrolls gained 38k, supported by the usual education, health care and leisure sectors, while manufacturing lost 12k jobs, and federal government employment fell by 15k. The three month moving average dropped from 35k to 29k. Along with the weak job gains there was a decline in average weekly hours, another indication of weakening demand.
ECB preview: The ECB’s rate cut cycle…it’s probably over
- Macro economy
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The Governing Council kept policy on hold in July, and is likely to remain on hold at the September meeting and for the foreseeable future.
Global manufacturing: Some relief for the eurozone
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI rose to 14-month high in August. Remarkable improvements seen in US (partly) and the eurozone. Global excess supply continues, but biggest supply shock from US tariffs is behind us. Cost-push price pressures have picked up this year, led by the US.
