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Housing market monitor - Lower housing costs for those who can afford it
- Macro economy
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Housing affordability is a central theme in the public debate. It is often assessed based on aggregate indicators such as home prices and average incomes. In recent years these indicators have painted a seemingly reassuring picture, despite a doubling of home prices. Income growth outpaced rising housing costs, causing average housing cost ratios to decline. However, this picture masks the significant differences between households. The Dutch housing market is characterized by clear dividing lines. Homeowners accumulate an advantage over time because their incomes rise while their mortgage payments remain relatively stable. Meanwhile, renters and first-time homebuyers are confronted with rent increases and rising house prices. Furthermore, there are significant differences between the major cities and the rest of the Netherlands. It is therefore necessary to look beyond averages and break down housing costs by rental versus ownership, young versus old, and by region. This analysis shows that the perceived improvement in housing costs is unevenly distributed. Existing homeowners benefit the most, while first-time homebuyers and young renters—particularly in the four major cities—saw their housing cost ratios rise or barely decline. At the same time, it appears that younger buyers and renters are achieving their seemingly stable or declining housing costs in part by downsizing. When living space is considered, they are paying more per square meter. The general, aggregated picture of declining housing costs thus masks a growing gap in affordability and housing quality between groups of households. Average trends therefore provide insufficient insight into who is actually better off.
Dutch manufacturing sector benefits from stockpiling
- Macro economy
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The Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI has risen sharply, from 52.0 to 54.4 in April, the highest reading since the summer of 2022. Because of the war in the Middle East, which has caused the biggest disruption to supply chains in almost four years, companies have started stockpiling.
Transaction Trends - Higher energy prices; keeping a finger on the pulse
- Macro economy
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How is the war in Iran impacting Dutch households? In this publication, we analyse how quickly higher energy prices impact household finances, using anonymised transaction data from more than 1 million households. Higher gas prices feed through with a delay, meaning the average household energy bill payment has not yet increased. With regards to fuel spending, we see that rising oil prices filter through much quicker; this effect is already visible in March. We expect energy payments to continue increasing in the coming months, as was also the case in 2022. At that time, it took around a quarter for energy bill payments to increase noticeably. We will therefore monitor household energy payments closely in the coming months, particularly for households that are vulnerable to higher energy costs.
ECB Watch - Rate hike on the cards as risks intensify
- Macro economy
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The ECB’s communications following the April meeting made it clear that a rate hike is on the cards in June. Inflation risks were judged to have intensified and were on the upside as the developments were moving away from the ECB’s baseline. The March baseline itself was predicated on rate hikes, while oil prices have moved significantly higher since then . We expect a 25bp hike at each of the next two meetings taking the deposit rate to 2.5%
FOMC Watch - The dots move up, and Powell will be one of them
- Macro economy
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The Fed left rates unchanged as expected. The major headline was that four FOMC members dissented, a number not seen since the early 1990s. This made the final Powell FOMC meeting his most divided, and gives an interesting starting point for his successor, who was already expected to have some trouble building consensus behind him.
NGEU - related growth at risk of undershooting
- Macro economy
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The EU remains the single largest issuer in the euro SSA market, having placed more than EUR 160bn in bonds in 2025 and expected to raise another EUR 90bn in the first half of 2026 alone. The core of this issuance has been under the NextGeneration EU (NGEU) programme, with its main instrument being the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). The NGEU was launched in 2021 to provide support following the Covid-19 pandemic, and is now approaching its final year. In fact, all disbursements under the RRF must occur before the year-end, with payment requests by Member States having to be submitted before 31st of August 2026. On the back of this, this note examines RRF fund spending patterns and its effect on GDP by addressing five main questions: 1. How do RRF disbursements stack up against total envelopes? 2. Are Member States expected to receive the remaining funds before the 2026 deadline? 3. Are Member States on track for spending the already received RRF funds? 4. How have EU Member States spent the RRF funds? 5. What will be the impact on growth if EU countries do not fulfil all of their investment plans?
Global economic forecasts as of 22 April 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China - A tale of resilience, Iran risks and chokepoints
- Macro economy
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Real GDP accelerated a bit in Q1, as expected, but risks from the Middle East still loom. March macro data already show some impact of the Iran conflict. Blockage of energy chokepoint Strait of Hormuz is a test for US-China relations.
US - Two supply shocks, one inflation problem
- Macro economy
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Demand remains solid in the aggregate, and the labour market stays in its odd equilibrium. All eyes are on the inflation impact of the energy shock, but disinflation prospects were already limited.
The Netherlands - A tailored support package
- Macro economy
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While downside risks have clearly increased, we expect Q1 GDP to come in at 0.4% q/q. The Dutch cabinet has proposed various measures to support households and companies. The risk of second round effects on wages and inflation is bigger for the Netherlands. Rather than rising, the new bout of inflation will mean purchasing power stagnates in 2026.
