Our research

Global Monthly - The Hormuz clock is ticking

The US and Iran seem close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But even with a full reopening, energy prices are likely to stay well above pre-war levels over the coming quarters. In the absence of a deal, the continued rundown of oil inventories poses the risk of nonlinear price spikes. Still, we expect the growth impact to stay contained thanks to the underlying resilience and flexibility of the global economy.

Key Views Global Monthly May 2026

The Iran conflict has triggered a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will last, but our base case assumes severe disruptions last well into Q3. The inflation shock is outweighing the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest measures to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.

Warsh inherits Powell’s unfinished legacy

Tomorrow, Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. This is the first time in 40 years that the ceremony will be held at the White House. The last chairmen were all sworn in at the Fed, without the attendance of the President. Even if this is not the first time in history, the inauguration at the White House does send a signal, at a delicate moment. Insisting on normal procedure was a chance for Warsh to more cleanly distance himself from the White House, in a time where pressure on the Fed’s independence remains. Indeed, it is for that very reason that the former Chairman, Jerome Powell, decided to keep his position on the Federal Reserve Board until legal attacks on his position are resolved.

Transaction Trends - The pension transition - More pension, more spending?

This year, approximately 1.5 million Dutch retirees are noticing the effects of the pension transition in their wallets. Based on anonymized transaction data, we analyze the spending impulse resulting from the “conversion bonus” (invaarbonus), the additional pension indexation due to the transition to the new pension system. Retirees spend on average only 22% of an extra euro of pension income. This percentage declines at higher ages. Retirees with lower incomes or limited financial buffers tend to spend a larger share of the additional income. Despite the relatively small percentage effects, the size of the conversion bonus, combined with a large number of elderly people, still provides a modest boost to the Dutch economy.

FX Weekly - Sterling and euro under pressure

Sterling and euro both fell versus the US dollar this week. Energy prices drove much of the move. UK politics may raise short-term volatility in sterling. But fiscal clarity could support sterling. Higher US yields have supported the dollar.

Top of Mind - A Q&A on the UK’s political crisis

Carbon Market Strategist - Revised outlook amid anticipated structural shifts

The initial surge in EUA prices in 2026 is reversed as sentiment shifted due to the upcoming ETS review and geopolitical tensions. We revise our Baseline long term outlook downward to 138 EUR/tCO2 by 2030 and 191 EUR/tCO2 by 2035 due to weaker demand and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Linking the EU and UK ETS in 2028 would slightly lower prices, while carbon removals inclusion in 2031 would trigger a sharp drop in prices before recovering by 2035. EUA prices for 2026 are revised downward, to an average of 82 EUR/tCO2, reflecting weaker demand, geopolitical volatility, and policy-driven market uncertainty.

Global industry accelerates on stockpiling, rising delivery times

Global manufacturing PMI at four-year high in April, driven by ‘stockpiling’. Delivery times are lenghtening, particularly for developed economies. Our global supply bottlenecks index stays in ‘excess demand territory’. Inflationary pressures from global industry pick up further.

Housing market monitor - Lower housing costs for those who can afford it

Housing affordability is a central theme in the public debate. It is often assessed based on aggregate indicators such as home prices and average incomes. In recent years these indicators have painted a seemingly reassuring picture, despite a doubling of home prices. Income growth outpaced rising housing costs, causing average housing cost ratios to decline. However, this picture masks the significant differences between households. The Dutch housing market is characterized by clear dividing lines. Homeowners accumulate an advantage over time because their incomes rise while their mortgage payments remain relatively stable. Meanwhile, renters and first-time homebuyers are confronted with rent increases and rising house prices. Furthermore, there are significant differences between the major cities and the rest of the Netherlands. It is therefore necessary to look beyond averages and break down housing costs by rental versus ownership, young versus old, and by region. This analysis shows that the perceived improvement in housing costs is unevenly distributed. Existing homeowners benefit the most, while first-time homebuyers and young renters—particularly in the four major cities—saw their housing cost ratios rise or barely decline. At the same time, it appears that younger buyers and renters are achieving their seemingly stable or declining housing costs in part by downsizing. When living space is considered, they are paying more per square meter. The general, aggregated picture of declining housing costs thus masks a growing gap in affordability and housing quality between groups of households. Average trends therefore provide insufficient insight into who is actually better off.

Dutch manufacturing sector benefits from stockpiling

The Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI has risen sharply, from 52.0 to 54.4 in April, the highest reading since the summer of 2022. Because of the war in the Middle East, which has caused the biggest disruption to supply chains in almost four years, companies have started stockpiling.