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Spotlight - US Midterms – Trump can veto, Democrats cannot
- Macro economy
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The upcoming mid-terms are of little importance for the direction of policy, merely the potential speed. Our base case is a divided congress, which implies that Trump will continue to rule by Executive order.
Spotlight - A perfect storm for food inflation?
- Macro economy
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Food inflation remained contained in recent quarters, but leading indicators suggest upward pressures are building and we expect food inflation to start rising again towards the end of 2026 and into 2027. Heat and drought records were once again broken across the EU and the US, which is expected to put upward pressure on European food price. The impact of El Niño is likely to be more mixed. Our base case sees food price rises adding 0.5pp to eurozone HICP inflation at its peak by Q3 2027.
Key Views Global Monthly August 2026
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of a succession of shocks. While the energy shock is back with a vengeance, its effects are more idiosyncratic now, and much more impactful for Europe than the US. Meanwhile, a capex troika centred around AI, defence and the energy transition are continuing to drive growth, which is expected to hold roughly around trend rates in advanced economies. The global investment surge is also supporting growth in China, although imbalances there continue to fan trade tensions with the EU. Against this backdrop, inflation will remain somewhat elevated over the coming months, and this should keep central banks leaning hawkish, with the ECB expected to raise rates further in September, and a risk that the Fed has to tighten policy. Our base case sees both central banks resuming rate cuts in 2027.
China - Domestic imbalances worsening, trade tensions brewing
- Macro economy
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Supply-demand imbalances worsen amidst weak growth momentum. Beijing still seems to be taking a cautious approach towards fresh stimulus. US-China tensions resurface in run-up to Trump-Xi summit; tougher EU stance on China.
US - A race against the clock
- Macro economy
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Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech increased the perceived odds of a September hike. The broader FOMC still seems divided. The speed of progress on the disinflation process is key. The labour market muddles along, with weak hiring and employment caught by dwindling supply.
The Netherlands - Resilient in an uncertain world
- Macro economy
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In the first half of this year, the Dutch economy grew stronger than previously expected; growth will slow in the second half. We expect growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. The minority government has reached an agreement, and will introduce purchasing power support. Given its minority status, the budget will likely still be amended.
Germany - Cautious optimism
- Macro economy
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Economic output is rising, but no decisive breakthrough is in sight. Still, we are raising our GDP growth forecast for 2026. The inflation rate is likely to hover just below 3.0% over the coming months.
Eurozone - Resilient growth, worrying inflation
- Macro economy
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Growth is likely to stay resilient despite the resurgent energy shock, but inflation has become a worry. The longer high energy prices persist, the bigger the risk of second round effects… and the bigger the risk the ECB might have to tighten beyond next week’s expected rate hike.
Global Monthly - Deal or no deal: Does it still matter?
- Macro economy
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The energy shock is back, but its impact more idiosyncratic than before. A lot of energy is getting through Hormuz ‘dark’, and this lowers the importance of a deal to re-open the Strait. Less important ≠ not important, and a deal would still help restore LNG flows, lower inflation and reduce European energy supply risks. Resurgent energy prices and stubborn inflation are keeping central banks on edge. Markets have probably gone too far pricing hikes…but the risk of more tightening than we currently expect has risen.
Gas Market Strategist - Tight supply and thin storage set the stage for a tough winter
- Macro economy
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European gas prices hover above EUR 70/MWh amid geopolitical disruption, low storage and intensifying LNG competition. EU storage stands at 65%, well below 82% average, and may reach only 75% by November. Lost Qatari LNG is only partly offset, leaving Europe without a sufficient operational supply buffer. Europe–Asia LNG competition is set to intensify, keeping prices high and volatile. Low storage leaves Europe exposed to cold winter or unplanned US and Norwegian disruptions which could trigger shortages and renewed price spikes. Prices may ease to EUR 45-50/MWh in Q4 if Hormuz reopens; prolonged closure implies EUR 70-80/MWh.
