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Energy Market Outlook 2026 - Oil oversupply and European gas price stabilization
- Macro economy
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We expect Brent crude to average $55/b in 2026, gradually declining to $50/b by year-end. TTF gas prices forecast to average €30/MWh in 2026, with summer prices falling to €26/MWh.
Global economic forecasts as of 11 November 2025
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
FX Outlook 2026 - More dollar weakness ahead
- Macro economy
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US dollar is overvalued and more weakness in 2026. Narrowing rate spreads and German spending support euro, but French fiscal concerns may limit gains. Narrowing US-Japan rate differentials and dollar weakness to support the yen.
Global Outlook 2026 - China: The need to rebalance remains despite trade deal
- Macro economy
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Supply-demand imbalances have not really been tackled in 2025. Extension of the US-China truce will reduce external risks in 2026, but there is still a need to rebalance. We expect a stepping up of targeted measures to support domestic demand, but still no ‘bazooka’. China-US/West: Fragile equilibrium holds after trade deal with US, strategic decoupling to continue. We expect annual GDP growth to slow from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, and to 4.3% in 2027.
Global Outlook 2026 - US: The AI Haves and Have Nots
- Macro economy
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The US has become a tale of two economies: AI is booming, the remainder is stagnant. Trade and immigration policy are expected to widen the divide. AI investment, and fiscal and monetary easing will drive growth, at the cost of deficits and inflation.
Global Outlook 2026 - The Netherlands: Bottlenecks keep a lid on the economy
- Macro economy
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The growth outlook improves moving into 2026, but bottlenecks and competitiveness issues constrain potential growth. We expect GDP growth to average 1.7% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027. Labour market tightness eases, but the unemployment rate will only increase marginally. Inflation stays above the eurozone aggregate, due to tax changes and services prices.
Global Outlook 2026 - Eurozone: External environment rough, will Europe step up?
- Macro economy
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The eurozone economy performed well in 2025, despite the headwinds from US tariffs and intense competition from China – even if that performance is exaggerated by outlier Ireland. We expect growth to re-accelerate in 2026 as German fiscal spending ramps up, though southern European outperformance is expected to wane on the end of the EU’s Recovery & Resilience Facility. The ECB is expected to stay on hold through 2026-7. Near term risks are tilted to another cut given the looming inflation undershoot, but those risks could tilt towards a hike as 2027 develops.
Special Global Outlook 2026 - We need to talk about Exorbitant Privilege
- Macro economy
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Exorbitant Privilege: The erosion of US institutions has surprised in its speed and scope. What are the risks in 2026, and can Europe step up to fill some of the void? Also: How the Dutch election outcome might help.
Global Outlook 2026 - The shifting world order
- Macro economy
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The transition from one world order to another is in full swing, but it is still unclear how that new world order will look. The advent of AI, China’s rise, and the US’s relative decline offer challenges but also opportunities. The trade war weapon du jour has shifted from tariffs to chokepoints, creating new challenges for governments and manufacturers. Fiscal troubles in France and the UK are likely to remain a worry. Global growth has been remarkably resilient given the headwinds. We expect that resilience to continue in 2026, albeit with considerable risks.
ESG Economist - Balancing European competitiveness with export rebates
- Sustainability
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By 2026, CBAM will impose tariffs on the carbon content of imported goods, aiming to prevent carbon leakage and ensure fair competition within EU markets.
