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Global economic forecasts as of 25 March 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China - Reviewing our forecasts on the Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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Macro data have gotten more ‘bullish’ just before Middle East escalation. Slight adjustment of our growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 on Iran conflict. Despite excess supply, cost-push pressures from energy price spike lead to higher inflation forecasts.
US - Actions have consequences
- Macro economy
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Outside direct and indirect effects of the AI boom, the US economy grew at near stall speed in 2025. Low labour supply growth led to near-zero job creation, but also prevented unemployment from rising. With tariff inflation yet to dissipate, the Iran conflict generates another policy-induced inflation shock.
The Netherlands - A new energy shock while still digesting the former
- Macro economy
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The fallout from the war in the Middle East means we have adjusted our forecasts. We have slightly downgraded our 2026 growth forecast, while upgrading our inflation forecast. We now expect growth in 2026 to average 1.5% (was 1.6%), and 1.2% in 2026 (was 1.4%). The uncertainty around inflation is high with an upgraded forecast of 2.8% in 2026 (was 2.2%). While the timing of the energy shock is unfavourable the economy is resilient.
Germany - Cautious recovery pressured by geopolitical uncertainty
- Macro economy
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A tentative recovery remains vulnerable as energy and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on the outlook. The sharp rise in factory orders at the end of 2025 has yet to translate into higher industrial production. Still, the allocation of special defence, infrastructure, and climate funds is gathering momentum.
Eurozone - An energy shock like nobody’s ever seen before
- Macro economy
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Europe faces a renewed energy shock, just when the remnants of the last one were finally fading. Still, as with most things emanating from Trumpworld, this shock is likely to hit differently to the last one. This time, we are seeing a sharp divergence in electricity prices among eurozone countries. ECB looks set to at least do an insurance hike – and probably another – to contain inflation expectations.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
Oil Market Monitor - The ripple effects of Strait of Hormuz closure
- Natural resources
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The war in Iran has significantly disrupted global oil and gas markets, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing a shortfall of over 20 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil and refined products from the Gulf region. This has stranded numerous cargos on either side of the passage, while escalating attacks on energy infrastructure threaten prolonged disruptions and a new wave of higher inflation globally. In response, countries linked to the IEA plan a coordinated release of 412 million barrels of emergency stocks. While efforts to reroute disrupted supplies and reduce demand provide some short-term relief, a prolonged disruption would have devastating consequences worldwide.
ESG Economist - Impact of the Iran conflict on transition commodities
- Sustainability
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The Iran conflict is having a major impact on commodity markets. With the outbreak of the war and Iran’s attacks on neighbouring countries’ oil and gas facilities, prices for energy commodities have soared. Such a sharp price reaction in other commodity markets (particularly metals) was initially absent, as the impact of the Middle East conflict on many non-fossil commodities did not immediately lead to widespread panic. It is now almost four weeks on, and many non-fossil commodities are beginning to show their true colours. In this analysis, we take a closer look at the trend in the transition metals index and which specific transition metals have been most affected since the start of the war. We also present the price index for defence metals and how this differs from the trend in the price of transition metals. With this analysis, we provide insight into the various price trends and indicate how this may impact the business sector.
Key views March 2026
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict is triggering a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will go on for, but our new base case assumes severe disruptions last until the end of May. The inflation shock will outweigh the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs will remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.
