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Gas Market Monitor - Winter approaches and gas markets exhale
- Macro economy
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Europe has filled 83% of gas storage, boosted by lower Asian LNG competition, increasing confidence for winter. Despite this, supply constraints persist until early 2026, when new capacity from the US and Canada is expected to ease the market. European industrial demand weakens amid global economic slowdown and tariffs, with recovery expected in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus. TTF prices remain sensitive to Middle East or other peace talks, sanctions, US-China trade war, and supply disruptions. Our outlook for Q4 year ahead contract to average around 38 EUR/MWh before easing in 2026.
The Week Ahead - 13 - 17 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Industrial production volume continues to grow due to domestic demand
- Macro economy
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The Nevi Purchasing Managers' Index for the Dutch manufacturing industry rose further from 51.9 to 53.7 in September. Despite few new export orders caused by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade polices, the industrial production volume increased due to domestic demand, necessitating the swift hiring of additional staff.
ESG Economist - Is carbon capture economically viable?
- Sustainability
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To achieve the global goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to below 2°C (preferably 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels, we need a mix of solutions. These include reducing CO₂ emissions, capturing emissions directly from combustion, and removing CO₂ from the atmosphere. While much focus has been on reducing emissions (like using renewable energy or sustainable fuels), carbon capture and storage (CCS) is gaining attention, especially for hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry and transport (shipping).
Global manufacturing: Still expanding, rising delivery times
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI for September more or less stable compared to August. On the global scale, supply conditions are still stronger than demand conditions. Delivery times to DMs have lengthened, mainly for US, but shipping tariffs are coming down.
The Week Ahead - 6 - 10 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ESG Economist - An introduction to nature-related risks
- Sustainability
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Economies are deeply reliant on ecosystem services like food, water, and climate regulation, yet alarming trends reveal the rapid degradation of critical natural ecosystems.
Housing market monitor - Income growth and a shortage of new supply are pushing up prices
- Macro economy
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We expect house price growth of 8.7% by 2025 (was 8%). Price growth is driven primarily by income growth and supply shortage. Housing transactions are expected to increase by 12.5% in 2025. Sales of investment properties boost housing transactions.
Eurozone services inflation edges up; Netherlands still an outlier
- Macro economy
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Eurozone inflation broadly steady, but services picks up in key economies. The Netherlands: September CPI rises after 4 months of decline.
US Watch – Government shutdown adds labour market noise
- Macro economy
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This morning, the US government went into shutdown. Democrats and Republicans couldn’t agree on a bill funding government services beyond October. Even though Republicans control Congress, their slim majority is insufficient for to pass the 60-vote threshold needed in the Senate. Democrats used this leverage to try to improve healthcare access for Americans, by demanding an extension of tax credits on health insurance set to expire in January, and to reverse some OBBBA cuts to Medicaid and various health agencies. Republicans refused to comply, and no resolution was found before the funding deadline expired.
