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FX Special - Why the US dollar is still overvalued
- Macro economy
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The US dollar is substantially overvalued according to different metrics including our own fundamental model estimates. The Japanese yen and the euro are the most undervalued versus dollar. Cyclical drivers and FX hedging have mainly contributed to dollar weakness in 2025. In our forecast horizon we expect the dollar to weaken further due to negative cyclical developments and more concerns on the structural factors.
ESG Economist - EU ETS Price Scenarios: Economic impact the Netherlands
- Macro economy
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In September, ABN Amro Group Economics published projections for EU ETS prices under various scenarios. This note builds on those scenarios, analysing their potential impact on key macroeconomic variables in the Netherlands.
Dutch manufacturing sector sees exports picking up
- Macro economy
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The Dutch manufacturing sector is growing at a slightly slower pace, according to the Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI for October, which declined from 53.7 to 51.8. Output and new orders continued to increase. The volume of new export orders rose again, after a slight decline in September.
The Week Ahead - 3 - 7 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ECB increasingly comfortable on hold
- Macro economy
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The ECB kept its key policy interest rates steady for the third successive meeting and its commentary suggested that it is increasingly comfortable maintaining this policy stance going forward.
FOMC Watch - "December is far from a foregone conclusion"
- Macro economy
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The FOMC lowered its policy rate by 25 bps to the 3.75-4.00% range. There were two dissents, with Miran favouring a half-point cut, and Schmid favoring no cut. The Schmid dissent came as a surprise, and likely reflects wider disagreement and uncertainty going forward. Powell explicitly confirmed this, highlighting substantial difference of opinion and noting that December is 'far from' a foregone conclusion. Apart from that, the monetary policy statement maintains the description of the labor market, noting that recent indicators are consistent with earlier developments. Powell's rationalization for today's cut was therefore identical to last time; risks to the two sides of the mandate have become more balanced and the policy rate was moved closer to neutral.
Dutch elections - Convergence in polls suggest a tight race
- Macro economy
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The Dutch head to the ballot box coming Wednesday, polls suggest that support for the four largest parties has converged. A centrist 4-party coalition now could have a majority, but is being ruled out for now by the centre-right VVD party-leader Yeşilgöz. Such a coalition has overlap but also large differences, suggesting a challenging formation process lies ahead. The election programme of each of the parties points to higher deficits in the coming years... but for next year, we expect the impact on the funding need to be limited because the policy changes will take time to have an effect. Unlike two years ago, the pension transition is not on the political agenda during these elections.
The Week Ahead - 27 - 31 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ESG Economist - Global overcapacity slows down the sustainable steel transition
- Sustainability
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This is the first analysis in a two-part series on the steel industry. With these reports, we aim to provide insights in potential risks and opportunities for companies in the sector and their suppliers. In this first analysis, we focus on the most polluting steel production processes and trends in their associated CO2 emissions. We compare the CO2 emissions from the two main production routes for steel.
Transaction Trends - Cost of living improved despite more expensive groceries
- Macro economy
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Analysis of 150,000 Dutch households earning a salary provides insight into the development of the cost of living pressures. We examine the extent to which a household’s net income is consumed by fixed expenses and groceries. Grocery prices have increased significantly; households are spending more on them compared to seven years ago. Nevertheless, cost of living is improving because incomes have risen more sharply than fixed expenses and grocery expenses. The percentage of households that spend a large portion of their income on fixed expenses and groceries has decreased.
