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The Netherlands - The Harry Styles effect
- Macro economy
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Q1 GDP upwardly revised to 0.2% q/q. We expect growth to average 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. CPI inflation rose sharply to 3.5% y/y in May, largely driven by airfares and accommodation. With Prinsjesdag (Budget Day) approaching, attention is turning to purchasing power support.
Eurozone: The energy shock is dragging – and driving – consumption
- Macro economy
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Surging EV sales suggest consumption was not only hindered, but also helped by the energy shock. With the energy shock fading, consumer confidence is likely to recover, further helping consumption. The ECB is still expected to hike once more in September, with rate cuts expected in Q2-Q3 2027.
Global Monthly - Teflon economy shaking off another shock
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of persistent shocks. The AI boom, defence spending and the energy transition ‘capex troika’ are likely to continue supporting growth going forward. Still, AI bubble risk, and sovereign debt dynamics remain a worry.
ECB suggests more hikes to come
- Macro economy
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The ECB raised interest rates by 25bp at the June Governing Council meeting as was widely expected. Its communication and forecasts suggested that there will likely be more rate hikes to come.
Services drives May eurozone inflation rise
- Macro economy
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Eurozone inflation picked up in line with expectations to 3.2% in May, from 3% in April, while core inflation surprised to the upside, rising to 2.5% (ABN/consensus: 2.4%) from 2.2%. Energy continues to be the biggest driver of inflation, but held steady in May at 10.9% y/y, as a rise in petrol prices was probably offset to a greater extent than expected by falling diesel prices. Indeed, as we pointed out in our latest Global Monthly, the gap between diesel and petrol – which widened as refineries struggled to replace lost Middle Eastern diesel supply – has now largely normalised as European refineries filled the gap. Food inflation also unexpectedly fell back, to 2% from 2.4% in April, though there was considerable variation across countries this month (for instance, France saw a big rise in food inflation).
The Netherlands - Momentum eases after strong run
- Macro economy
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Growth slowed to 0.1% q/q at the start of the year, with increased uncertainty dampening growth. We have downwardly revised our growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.1% for 2027. HICP inflation forecasts are upgraded to 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027.
Eurozone - Solid underlying growth seeing some cracks
- Macro economy
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Underlying momentum going into the energy shock has been solid in the eurozone overall. But France has become more of a worry amid weak growth and confidence. The ECB is still expected to hike at coming meetings in order to anchor inflation expectations.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz clock is ticking
- Macro economy
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The US and Iran seem close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But even with a full reopening, energy prices are likely to stay well above pre-war levels over the coming quarters. In the absence of a deal, the continued rundown of oil inventories poses the risk of nonlinear price spikes. Still, we expect the growth impact to stay contained thanks to the underlying resilience and flexibility of the global economy.
Transaction Trends - The pension transition - More pension, more spending?
- Macro economy
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This year, approximately 1.5 million Dutch retirees are noticing the effects of the pension transition in their wallets. Based on anonymized transaction data, we analyze the spending impulse resulting from the “conversion bonus” (invaarbonus), the additional pension indexation due to the transition to the new pension system. Retirees spend on average only 22% of an extra euro of pension income. This percentage declines at higher ages. Retirees with lower incomes or limited financial buffers tend to spend a larger share of the additional income. Despite the relatively small percentage effects, the size of the conversion bonus, combined with a large number of elderly people, still provides a modest boost to the Dutch economy.
Transaction Trends - Higher energy prices; keeping a finger on the pulse
- Macro economy
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How is the war in Iran impacting Dutch households? In this publication, we analyse how quickly higher energy prices impact household finances, using anonymised transaction data from more than 1 million households. Higher gas prices feed through with a delay, meaning the average household energy bill payment has not yet increased. With regards to fuel spending, we see that rising oil prices filter through much quicker; this effect is already visible in March. We expect energy payments to continue increasing in the coming months, as was also the case in 2022. At that time, it took around a quarter for energy bill payments to increase noticeably. We will therefore monitor household energy payments closely in the coming months, particularly for households that are vulnerable to higher energy costs.
