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Dutch cabinet ambitious but dependent on opposition
- Macro economy
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• D66, VVD and CDA are forming a Dutch minority cabinet lacking a majority in both parliament and the senate, policy making will remain a challenge and dependent upon opposition buy-in • The coalition agreement seeks to rebalance consumption and investment spending, in favour of the latter. For instance more will be spent on defence and housing, at the cost of healthcare and social security • The agreement limits the budget deficit at 2% of GDP, perhaps also to leave room for opposition wishes. • This cabinet is shifting towards a more constructive stance towards Europe • The Netherlands will be put back on track to meet the EU Climate Law targets, with likely strong opposition support
Eurozone economy stayed resilient at the end of 2025
- Macro economy
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Q4 growth figures in the eurozone suprise to the upside in the final quarter of 2025.
The Week Ahead - 31 January - 6 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 26 - 31 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Germany - An important year for the country
- Macro economy
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The German economy grew by 0.2% q/q in Q4, landing the annual average for 2025 at 0.3%. We expect government spending alongside other factors to drive an increase in growth to 0.9% in 2026. Recent news on delays to government investment and tariffs introduce downside risks to the forecast.
The Netherlands - Heading for a minority government
- Macro economy
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We see the Dutch economy’s growth cooling from 1.7% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026, and slightly recovering to 1.4% in 2027; private and public consumption is expected to contribute significantly. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.4% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2025. The Netherlands is likely to have a minority government, led by D66, VVD, and CDA, with Rob Jetten anticipated as Prime Minister. While policy uncertainty may decrease, compromises with opposition parties will remain essential due to the lack of majority in both parliament and senate.
Eurozone - The fragile recovery
- Macro economy
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Consumption and industry are continuing to recover, despite the looming new risks to the outlook. The likely passage of a 2026 budget in France is also a welcome development. We do not expect a lasting solution to France’s fiscal woes, but nor do we expect the country to descend into a crisis. Eurozone inflation remains well behaved, likely keeping the ECB on hold for the foreseeable future. But persistent undershoots in France and Italy are a cause for concern.
Global Monthly - Orange is the new Green
- Macro economy
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Geopolitical risk is increasingly dominating the outlook. The US-EU dispute over Greenland threatens a new tariff war – or worse. Over the next month, we will see just how far Trump is prepared to go to obtain Greenland, and whether Europe can stand its ground. We refrain from changing our base case given the fluidity of events, but uncertainty is clearly back with a vengeance, and the outlook less benign. Spotlight: We present a framework to analyse the main channels through which geopolitical risk impacts the economy.
Trump’s Greenland tariffs: Impact and possible EU response
- Macro economy
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President Trump announced new tariffs on European countries in response to their Greenland military exercise. There is substantial uncertainty around implementation of US tariffs, both practically and legally. The EU is preparing its response, and escalation risk is rising, but use of the Anti-Coercion Instrument is unlikely in the very near-term. A ‘backloading’ of EU-US exports could lead to a near-term growth dip in Europe, followed by a rebound. All of this hinges on whether the US actually follows through on its threats, and whether Europe meaningfully responds
The Week Ahead - 19 - 23 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.