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The Week Ahead - 20 - 24 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Dutch elections - Consensus for high deficits
- Macro economy
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The Dutch head to the ballot box on the 29th of October in an important election after a period of political turmoil. Polls signal quite some shifts, with far-right PVV as election winner once again, though it is deemed unlikely they will enter a new coalition. While still very uncertain, with centre parties, such as the CDA, winning, a more centrist government looks increasingly feasible. Party programmes share a consensus for large deficits, putting longer term public finances under pressure. Chances of a coalition with a more constructive stance towards the EU and traditionally sensitive issues, such as joint financing, have increased.
The Week Ahead - 13 - 17 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 6 - 10 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 29 September - 3 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Netherlands - After budget day, on to the elections
- Macro economy
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The budget presented on Prinsjesdag had few surprises, including a plan to boost purchasing power. Large policy changes were left to the next cabinet after the upcoming elections, and the political campaign is picking up steam. Growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term before picking up in 2026.
Eurozone - Waiting for the German fiscal bazooka
- Macro economy
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The economy is in limbo – caught between the US tariff drag and looming German fiscal largesse. The manufacturing sector saw renewed weakness in September. This is consistent with our expectation for zero growth in Q3, following a very subdued expansion of 0.1% q/q in Q2. As long as the economy remains resilient and on track for a recovery next year, we think the ECB will likely keep interest rates on hold. But the risk remains tilted towards cuts rather than hikes.
Global Monthly - Are we ready for another Trump shock?
- Macro economy
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We are seeing more signs of weaker exports and manufacturing from US tariffs, though the hit remains relatively mild so far. German fiscal spending and Chinese policy support should keep the impact of this soft patch contained. As the world grapples with one US-centred economic shock, another looms in the background: the potential loss of Fed independence. Spotlight: A less independent Fed would have implications well beyond US shores, and it could well lead to a resumption of ECB rate cuts.
The Week Ahead - 22 - 26 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Dutch budget day overshadowed by upcoming elections
- Macro economy
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Little surprises on what was and wasn’t in yesterday's budget
