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The Netherlands - Resilient in an uncertain world
- Macro economy
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In the first half of this year, the Dutch economy grew stronger than previously expected; growth will slow in the second half. We expect growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. The minority government has reached an agreement, and will introduce purchasing power support. Given its minority status, the budget will likely still be amended.
Eurozone - Resilient growth, worrying inflation
- Macro economy
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Growth is likely to stay resilient despite the resurgent energy shock, but inflation has become a worry. The longer high energy prices persist, the bigger the risk of second round effects… and the bigger the risk the ECB might have to tighten beyond next week’s expected rate hike.
Global Monthly - Deal or no deal: Does it still matter?
- Macro economy
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The energy shock is back, but its impact more idiosyncratic than before. A lot of energy is getting through Hormuz ‘dark’, and this lowers the importance of a deal to re-open the Strait. Less important ≠ not important, and a deal would still help restore LNG flows, lower inflation and reduce European energy supply risks. Resurgent energy prices and stubborn inflation are keeping central banks on edge. Markets have probably gone too far pricing hikes…but the risk of more tightening than we currently expect has risen.
Transaction Trends: Keeping a finger on the pulse of higher energy prices
- Macro economy
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Are Dutch households already feeling the impact of higher energy prices? In this publication, we use anonymised and aggregated transaction data from more than a million households to track how higher energy prices are affecting household finances. Interestingly, despite five months of elevated energy market prices, the median household energy payment has barely increased. This is because many existing contracts are still in effect and new electricity tariffs are not significantly higher. Although higher oil prices are quickly passed on at the pump, the increase in household fuel spending has so far remained limited as motorists adjust their behaviour.
Ireland volatility masks solid underlying eurozone growth
- Macro economy
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Eurozone Q2 GDP surprised to the upside at 0.4% q/q (consensus: 0.2%/ABN: 0.3%), and Q1 GDP was revised considerably higher – from a 0.2% contraction to a flat reading. Unsurprisingly, much of the surprise and the backward revision was driven by Ireland, with Q1’s massive contraction seeing yet another big revision to -7% q/q (from -12%). However, underlying growth was also revised a little higher, with Germany’s Q1 GDP growth revised up to 0.4% from 0.3%.
ECB Watch – ECB makes way for September hike
- Macro economy
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The ECB left its key policy rates unchanged at today’s Governing Council meeting, as was widely expected.
The Netherlands - The Harry Styles effect
- Macro economy
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Q1 GDP upwardly revised to 0.2% q/q. We expect growth to average 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. CPI inflation rose sharply to 3.5% y/y in May, largely driven by airfares and accommodation. With Prinsjesdag (Budget Day) approaching, attention is turning to purchasing power support.
Eurozone: The energy shock is dragging – and driving – consumption
- Macro economy
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Surging EV sales suggest consumption was not only hindered, but also helped by the energy shock. With the energy shock fading, consumer confidence is likely to recover, further helping consumption. The ECB is still expected to hike once more in September, with rate cuts expected in Q2-Q3 2027.
Global Monthly - Teflon economy shaking off another shock
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of persistent shocks. The AI boom, defence spending and the energy transition ‘capex troika’ are likely to continue supporting growth going forward. Still, AI bubble risk, and sovereign debt dynamics remain a worry.
ECB suggests more hikes to come
- Macro economy
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The ECB raised interest rates by 25bp at the June Governing Council meeting as was widely expected. Its communication and forecasts suggested that there will likely be more rate hikes to come.
