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The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
The Netherlands - A new energy shock while still digesting the former
- Macro economy
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The fallout from the war in the Middle East means we have adjusted our forecasts. We have slightly downgraded our 2026 growth forecast, while upgrading our inflation forecast. We now expect growth in 2026 to average 1.5% (was 1.6%), and 1.2% in 2026 (was 1.4%). The uncertainty around inflation is high with an upgraded forecast of 2.8% in 2026 (was 2.2%). While the timing of the energy shock is unfavourable the economy is resilient.
Eurozone - An energy shock like nobody’s ever seen before
- Macro economy
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Europe faces a renewed energy shock, just when the remnants of the last one were finally fading. Still, as with most things emanating from Trumpworld, this shock is likely to hit differently to the last one. This time, we are seeing a sharp divergence in electricity prices among eurozone countries. ECB looks set to at least do an insurance hike – and probably another – to contain inflation expectations.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
ECB Watch - ECB has moved to a tightening bias
- Macro economy
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Although the ECB’s communication was not particularly hawkish following the March Governing Council meeting, we still think it has effectively moved towards a tightening bias.
The Netherlands - Minority coalition agreement is all about defence
- Macro economy
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A strong second half of 2025 and strong momentum at the start of the year means we upgrade our growth forecasts to 1.6% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.3% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2025. The incoming minority government is ramping up defence spending, while keeping its finances in check. Plans are nowhere near final though, as they hinge on opposition support.
Eurozone - Early signs of the German spending push
- Macro economy
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Q4 GDP surprised to the upside, driven partly by the usual suspects (Spain), but Germany was a notable contributor after years of tepid growth, while France was resilient in the face of budget uncertainty. We are seeing early signs of Germany’s spending push, particularly in defence-related factory orders. The strengthening domestic economy adds to our conviction of an on-hold ECB. Beyond near-term policy, the changing of the guard on the Governing Council will be key over the coming 1-2 years.
Global Monthly - Geopolitics bad, macro good
- Macro economy
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While the risks have certainly not gone away, economic data has been generally firming, while near term positive impulses are getting stronger. Higher AI capex spending looks to be bigger than expected, fiscal stimulus is ramping up and financial conditions remain easy. So far geopolitics has been the dog, which barks very loudly, but does not bite. That cannot be taken for granted with Iran the latest flashpoint. SCOTUS decision to scrap IEEPA tariffs may not change too much, not least because fresh tariffs have largely replaced the old ones. There is an increasing chance that the global economy may run hot in the near term but also of a future hangover further down the line.
Key Macro Events 9 – 13 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Euro not yet an issue for the ECB
- Macro economy
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The ECB has been saying for months that interest rates are in a good place, and today it repeated this message following its Governing Council meeting.
