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Transaction Trends - Higher energy prices; keeping a finger on the pulse
- Macro economy
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How is the war in Iran impacting Dutch households? In this publication, we analyse how quickly higher energy prices impact household finances, using anonymised transaction data from more than 1 million households. Higher gas prices feed through with a delay, meaning the average household energy bill payment has not yet increased. With regards to fuel spending, we see that rising oil prices filter through much quicker; this effect is already visible in March. We expect energy payments to continue increasing in the coming months, as was also the case in 2022. At that time, it took around a quarter for energy bill payments to increase noticeably. We will therefore monitor household energy payments closely in the coming months, particularly for households that are vulnerable to higher energy costs.
ECB Watch - Rate hike on the cards as risks intensify
- Macro economy
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The ECB’s communications following the April meeting made it clear that a rate hike is on the cards in June. Inflation risks were judged to have intensified and were on the upside as the developments were moving away from the ECB’s baseline. The March baseline itself was predicated on rate hikes, while oil prices have moved significantly higher since then . We expect a 25bp hike at each of the next two meetings taking the deposit rate to 2.5%
The Netherlands - A tailored support package
- Macro economy
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While downside risks have clearly increased, we expect Q1 GDP to come in at 0.4% q/q. The Dutch cabinet has proposed various measures to support households and companies. The risk of second round effects on wages and inflation is bigger for the Netherlands. Rather than rising, the new bout of inflation will mean purchasing power stagnates in 2026.
Eurozone - The ECB can afford to wait, for now
- Macro economy
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Governments are taking the edge off the energy shock, but inflation is still yet to reach a peak. Still, even a more negative inflation shock is likely to be an order of magnitude smaller than in 2022-23. Hard data suggests a tepid start to the year, and likely downside risks to our 0.2% Q1 growth forecast. Even hawkish Governing Council members seem minded to hold rates at the 30 April ECB meeting, leading us to push back our call for hikes to June and July.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz stand-off
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict has morphed from a hot war to an economic one, with both sides using the Hormuz chokepoint as negotiation leverage. Energy supply disruptions are bigger than ever, but market worries have subsided, with peace efforts given the benefit of the doubt. We make only incremental forecast adjustments this month, keeping our core view that severe energy disruptions persist to end-May. We also update our more positive and negative scenarios for the conflict.
The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
The Netherlands - A new energy shock while still digesting the former
- Macro economy
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The fallout from the war in the Middle East means we have adjusted our forecasts. We have slightly downgraded our 2026 growth forecast, while upgrading our inflation forecast. We now expect growth in 2026 to average 1.5% (was 1.6%), and 1.2% in 2026 (was 1.4%). The uncertainty around inflation is high with an upgraded forecast of 2.8% in 2026 (was 2.2%). While the timing of the energy shock is unfavourable the economy is resilient.
Eurozone - An energy shock like nobody’s ever seen before
- Macro economy
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Europe faces a renewed energy shock, just when the remnants of the last one were finally fading. Still, as with most things emanating from Trumpworld, this shock is likely to hit differently to the last one. This time, we are seeing a sharp divergence in electricity prices among eurozone countries. ECB looks set to at least do an insurance hike – and probably another – to contain inflation expectations.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
ECB Watch - ECB has moved to a tightening bias
- Macro economy
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Although the ECB’s communication was not particularly hawkish following the March Governing Council meeting, we still think it has effectively moved towards a tightening bias.
