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The Netherlands - Resilient, but not immune
- Macro economy
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Solid foundations, the unique position in the semi-conductor supply chain and government spending have helped the Dutch economy withstand another energy shock. Growth is expected to moderate in 2027–28 as higher interest rates and inflation weigh on demand, despite continued support from exports. Inflation will remain persistent, while supply bottlenecks limit the economy’s growth potential.
Global Outlook - How resilient is resilience?
- Macro economy
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In this publication we present our economic outlook for the year ahead, while also adding our forecasts for 2028 for the first time. The global economy has expanded robustly despite many shocks over the past few years. We will explain why we think the economic expansion will continue, though we could once see more divergence between the US and the rest of the world, with Europe in particular falling behind. In addition, we explore a number of risks hanging over the global economy, which could potentially challenge the global economy’s remarkable record of resilience.
Will China Shock 2.0 trigger an EU-China trade war?
- Macro economy
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In this Global Outlook special, we analyse China’s rise in high-tech manufacturing and the impact on the EU economy and EU trade policy . ‘China Shock 2.0’ is Europe’s defining competitive challenge, and the EU is expanding its trade toolkit to manage China-related challenges/risks. We see the EU taking a tougher stance, with China likely to respond in kind. Given their mutual economic interests, we do not expect these tensions to escalate into a full-scale trade war.
The Netherlands - Resilient growth meets persistent bottlenecks
- Macro economy
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With GDP growth in H1-26 outperforming earlier estimates, we raised our 2026 forecast to 1.5%. Growth will moderate in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, but is still solid. Inflation is on the rise and will exceed 3% for the fifth year in a row this year.
Global Monthly - Will the bond sell-off derail the economy?
- Macro economy
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The global economy has shrugged off repeated shocks, but rising bond yields are emerging as a new challenge to the expansion. Bond markets are mostly pricing higher neutral rates, with fiscal concerns adding to yield increases in France, Belgium and the UK. Higher rates may slow the expansion, but they are unlikely to derail the US or eurozone economies on their own. The growth impact will be bigger in fiscally vulnerable economies, with France facing the twin challenge of consolidation and bigger rate rises. Markets may be overestimating how long policy rates will stay elevated, leaving room for bond yields to fall back next year. Regional updates: Rising yields temper rate hike pace in the Eurozone. We raise our growth forecast in the Netherlands following a strong H1. In the US, narrower inflation reduces the urgency of the Fed to hike. Growth gains momentum in China helped by targeted fiscal support
Prinsjesdag 2026: A budget in search of a majority
- Macro economy
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The Minority cabinet Jetten I presented its first full budget today at ‘Prinsjesdag’ (Budget Day). Today’s budget is yet without a majority and therefore features policies aimed at securing support from opposition parties. As a result, changes to today’s budget are expected during the upcoming budget debates. The impact on the budget deficit is expected to be limited, given tight agreement among coalition partners on budget rules… and as a result, we do not expect a significant impact on the funding need for 2027. The Dutch economy is resilient while long term challenges are mounting and inflation stays too high compared to peers.
The Netherlands - Resilient in an uncertain world
- Macro economy
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In the first half of this year, the Dutch economy grew stronger than previously expected; growth will slow in the second half. We expect growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. The minority government has reached an agreement, and will introduce purchasing power support. Given its minority status, the budget will likely still be amended.
Eurozone - Resilient growth, worrying inflation
- Macro economy
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Growth is likely to stay resilient despite the resurgent energy shock, but inflation has become a worry. The longer high energy prices persist, the bigger the risk of second round effects… and the bigger the risk the ECB might have to tighten beyond next week’s expected rate hike.
Global Monthly - Deal or no deal: Does it still matter?
- Macro economy
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The energy shock is back, but its impact more idiosyncratic than before. A lot of energy is getting through Hormuz ‘dark’, and this lowers the importance of a deal to re-open the Strait. Less important ≠ not important, and a deal would still help restore LNG flows, lower inflation and reduce European energy supply risks. Resurgent energy prices and stubborn inflation are keeping central banks on edge. Markets have probably gone too far pricing hikes…but the risk of more tightening than we currently expect has risen.
Transaction Trends: Keeping a finger on the pulse of higher energy prices
- Macro economy
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Are Dutch households already feeling the impact of higher energy prices? In this publication, we use anonymised and aggregated transaction data from more than a million households to track how higher energy prices are affecting household finances. Interestingly, despite five months of elevated energy market prices, the median household energy payment has barely increased. This is because many existing contracts are still in effect and new electricity tariffs are not significantly higher. Although higher oil prices are quickly passed on at the pump, the increase in household fuel spending has so far remained limited as motorists adjust their behaviour.
