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Dutch Macro - Political turmoil increases further heading into the Dutch elections
- Macro economy
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Today marked yet another tumultuous day in Dutch politics. The troubled Schoof cabinet, which already had a caretaker status since the far-right PVV quit the coalition early June over migration, saw another coalition member quit last Friday. The recently formed, centre-right NSC, which is under pressure due to very unfavourable polling, quit the coalition over imposing tougher measures on Israel due to the war in Gaza. This leaves the Schoof cabinet, consisting now of only the centre-right liberal VVD and the right-wing BBB, with just 32 seats (76 needed for a majority). A coalition party quitting a caretaker government is unprecedented in the Netherlands and set Dutch politics on an unclear path ahead. The outcome of today’s debate in Parliament on the way forward was that, despite the slim majority, with elections near, there is no support for a vote of no confidence, this would only increase political instability, not decrease it. Instead, the coalition continues, as it stands now until a new government is formed, with the VVD and the BBB filling the vacant ministerial posts.
The Week Ahead - 25 August - 5 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming 2 weeks.
The Netherlands - Heading into budget and election season
- Macro economy
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Q2 GDP came in at 0.1% q/q, roughly in line with our expectations (0.2% q/q), leading to small tweaks to our annual forecast of 1.5% in 2025 (from 1.6%) and 1.1% in 2026 (from 1.3%). Tariffs will weigh on activity in the near term, directly and indirectly via main trading partners. 2026 growth benefits from rate cuts, solid demand and fiscal spending in main trading partner Germany. After summer, it is all eyes on the Hague, with the caretaker government presenting the 2026 budget, and the election campaign ahead of the 29 October elections.
Eurozone - Spreading the pain
- Macro economy
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The tariff shock is unfolding more gradually, with a milder but more prolonged growth hit. The impact is also blunted by solid consumption, helped by falling rates and benign inflation. The ECB is now expected to look through the undershoot of its 2% inflation target. This means no further rate cuts on our forecast horizon, and the deposit rate holding at 2% for the foreseeable future.
Global Monthly - Bracing for impact
- Macro economy
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The tariff deals the US struck over the summer have averted a worst case scenario for the global economy. The impact of tariffs remains uncertain, and depends on how, when and where businesses pass on the tariffs to consumers. We have modestly downgraded our eurozone growth forecast as tariff rates came in somewhat higher than the base case. Stronger domestic demand is helping, amid US and China weakness.
ECB rate cut cycle most likely over
- Macro economy
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Eurozone Q2 GDP Unchanged at 0.1%; we changed our ECB-view and now expect the ECB to Keep Rates on Hold at 2%
The Week Ahead - 4 - 15 August 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming 2 weeks.
Eurozone Q2 GDP - Trade war collides with recovering domestic demand
- Macro economy
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Eurozone Q2 GDP surprised to the upside at 0.1% q/q, following growth of 0.6% in Q1. The Q2 outturn was well above our forecast for a small contraction (-0.2%) and a bit above consensus (0.0%). The miss on our part was largely driven by Ireland, but France also surprised to the upside (see below).
An unbalanced US-EU trade deal, given the EU’s weak hand
- Macro economy
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The US and the EU signed a trade deal last night that watered down the significant rise in tariffs that was due on 1 August, at which point the US administration was set to increase tariffs from the current 10% to 30%.
The Week Ahead - 28 July - 1 August 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.