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Housing market monitor - Will 2026 be an unexceptional year?
- Macro economy
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We expect house prices to rise 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. Income growth and low supply outweigh slightly rising mortgage rates. The number of housing transactions decreases 1% in 2026 and decreases 4% in 2027 due to less sales of investment properties.
ESG Economist - Will the Netherlands meet the EPBD targets?
- Macro economy
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In May 2024, the European Commission introduced the revised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), a significant regulation designed to improve the energy efficiency of buildings across the European Union (EU). The directive sets ambitious targets, including the goal of achieving a fully decarbonized building stock by 2050. In this note, we analyse the current state of the Dutch residential real estate sector and project whether the country is on track to meet the ambitious targets set by European regulations.
Housing market monitor - Dutch elections
- Macro economy
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The housing market is a recurring election topic because there are many conflicts of interest. Building more homes does not necessarily mean prices will fall soon. Many homeowners seem to do well even without the mortgage interest deduction. Expanding the regulated rental market costs a lot of money if we want to keep supply up.
Housing market monitor - Income growth and a shortage of new supply are pushing up prices
- Macro economy
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We expect house price growth of 8.7% by 2025 (was 8%). Price growth is driven primarily by income growth and supply shortage. Housing transactions are expected to increase by 12.5% in 2025. Sales of investment properties boost housing transactions.
Housing market monitor - Energy transition
- Macro economy
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The Dutch housing market must comply with EU energy efficiency regulations by 2030. The Netherlands seems on track to meet the EPBD energy reduction targets, even if there is little room for errors. Improving the worst-performing share of the housing stock remains a challenge, putting the targets at risk. Lower-income households in particular need more support.
Housing market monitor - Income growth and limited supply drive up house prices
- Macro economy
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We expect house price growth of 8% by 2025 (was 7%). Price growth is driven primarily by income growth and supply shortage. Housing transactions are expected to increase by 12.5% in 2025 (was 5%). Sales of investment properties boost housing transactions.
Housing market monitor - EU housing markets share common problems
- Macro economy
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We see housing affordability problems in many EU countries. We therefore look at housing demand, supply and affordability in the EU. It is often assumed that population growth and housing shortage lead to rising house prices, but income growth and falling mortgage rates have a greater impact. Over the past 20 years, Dutch house prices have increased and affordability has deteriorated, but not exceptionally in an EU context. We estimate affordability for homebuyers and conclude that the Netherlands is one of the more affordable buying markets in the EU. With an average income, couples can still buy a house, while single households struggle. Arrears in the Netherlands are among the lowest in the EU, while homes are among the largest and most energy efficient. The Netherlands spends more than any other country on housing subsidies (mortgage interest deduction, reduced transfer tax), which seems to have limited effects on affordability.
Housing Market Monitor - April 2025 - Summary
- Macro economy
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We maintain our price forecast, with+ 7% price growth in 2025 and+ 3% in 2026. We increase our transaction growth forecast for 2025 to +5% (was +2.5%). The drivers remain rising wages, lower mortgage rates and the supply shortage.
Housing market - building according to need
- Macro economy
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The housing shortage is mainly caused by demographic change and less by population growth. The share of single-person households is increasing while we continue to build large homes. This leads to a shortage of smaller and affordable housing, especially in rural areas. Working from home could lead to less pressure in urban, but more in rural areas. Retiring baby boomers may cause a wave of relocations, making the problem worse.
Housing Market Monitor - January 2025 - Summary
- Macro economy
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We expect the price trend to continue and house prices to rise 7% in 2025. The driving forces remain rising wages, lower mortgage rates and the supply shortage. The number of transactions will increase 2.5% in 2025 and 1% in 2026. Price and transaction growth will return to the long-term trend in 2026.