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Housing market monitor - Lower housing costs for those who can afford it
- Macro economy
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Housing affordability is a central theme in the public debate. It is often assessed based on aggregate indicators such as home prices and average incomes. In recent years these indicators have painted a seemingly reassuring picture, despite a doubling of home prices. Income growth outpaced rising housing costs, causing average housing cost ratios to decline. However, this picture masks the significant differences between households. The Dutch housing market is characterized by clear dividing lines. Homeowners accumulate an advantage over time because their incomes rise while their mortgage payments remain relatively stable. Meanwhile, renters and first-time homebuyers are confronted with rent increases and rising house prices. Furthermore, there are significant differences between the major cities and the rest of the Netherlands. It is therefore necessary to look beyond averages and break down housing costs by rental versus ownership, young versus old, and by region. This analysis shows that the perceived improvement in housing costs is unevenly distributed. Existing homeowners benefit the most, while first-time homebuyers and young renters—particularly in the four major cities—saw their housing cost ratios rise or barely decline. At the same time, it appears that younger buyers and renters are achieving their seemingly stable or declining housing costs in part by downsizing. When living space is considered, they are paying more per square meter. The general, aggregated picture of declining housing costs thus masks a growing gap in affordability and housing quality between groups of households. Average trends therefore provide insufficient insight into who is actually better off.
Housing market monitor - Uncertainty is slowing the housing market
- Macro economy
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We expect home prices to rise 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. Income growth and limited supply still outweigh rising mortgage rates. We expect the number of transactions to fall 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. The decline in the number of transactions is linked to growing uncertainty and a limited number of newly added homes.
Transaction Trends - Who Pays What? – Housing Expenses Ratio Mapped
- Macro economy
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Analysis of 320,000 households shows a decline in the housing expense ratio for the average household in recent years. The housing expenses ratio is the percentage of income spent on housing costs. Homeowners typically have a lower housing expenses ratio; private‑sector and social‑sector renters are at comparable levels. Younger buyers and private‑sector renters have similar incomes and housing costs. The housing expenses ratio for younger buyers has risen due to mortgage interest deductions and limited buying opportunities for lower incomes. Housing allowance is essential for many recipients, preventing households from having to spend more than half their income on housing costs.
Housing market monitor - Will 2026 be an unexceptional year?
- Macro economy
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We expect house prices to rise 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. Income growth and low supply outweigh slightly rising mortgage rates. The number of housing transactions decreases 1% in 2026 and decreases 4% in 2027 due to less sales of investment properties.
ESG Economist - Will the Netherlands meet the EPBD targets?
- Macro economy
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In May 2024, the European Commission introduced the revised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), a significant regulation designed to improve the energy efficiency of buildings across the European Union (EU). The directive sets ambitious targets, including the goal of achieving a fully decarbonized building stock by 2050. In this note, we analyse the current state of the Dutch residential real estate sector and project whether the country is on track to meet the ambitious targets set by European regulations.
Housing market monitor - Dutch elections
- Macro economy
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The housing market is a recurring election topic because there are many conflicts of interest. Building more homes does not necessarily mean prices will fall soon. Many homeowners seem to do well even without the mortgage interest deduction. Expanding the regulated rental market costs a lot of money if we want to keep supply up.
Housing market monitor - Income growth and a shortage of new supply are pushing up prices
- Macro economy
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We expect house price growth of 8.7% by 2025 (was 8%). Price growth is driven primarily by income growth and supply shortage. Housing transactions are expected to increase by 12.5% in 2025. Sales of investment properties boost housing transactions.
Housing market monitor - Energy transition
- Macro economy
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The Dutch housing market must comply with EU energy efficiency regulations by 2030. The Netherlands seems on track to meet the EPBD energy reduction targets, even if there is little room for errors. Improving the worst-performing share of the housing stock remains a challenge, putting the targets at risk. Lower-income households in particular need more support.
Housing market monitor - Income growth and limited supply drive up house prices
- Macro economy
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We expect house price growth of 8% by 2025 (was 7%). Price growth is driven primarily by income growth and supply shortage. Housing transactions are expected to increase by 12.5% in 2025 (was 5%). Sales of investment properties boost housing transactions.
Housing market monitor - EU housing markets share common problems
- Macro economy
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We see housing affordability problems in many EU countries. We therefore look at housing demand, supply and affordability in the EU. It is often assumed that population growth and housing shortage lead to rising house prices, but income growth and falling mortgage rates have a greater impact. Over the past 20 years, Dutch house prices have increased and affordability has deteriorated, but not exceptionally in an EU context. We estimate affordability for homebuyers and conclude that the Netherlands is one of the more affordable buying markets in the EU. With an average income, couples can still buy a house, while single households struggle. Arrears in the Netherlands are among the lowest in the EU, while homes are among the largest and most energy efficient. The Netherlands spends more than any other country on housing subsidies (mortgage interest deduction, reduced transfer tax), which seems to have limited effects on affordability.
