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Iran ceasefire - Is this a turning point?
- Natural resources
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A two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran offers a welcome pause and the prospect of renewed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. But much uncertainties remain, leaving risks of renewed disruption firmly on the horizon.
Global industry impacted by Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI comes down again in March on escalation of Iran conflict. Relatively strong readings for developed economies flattered by rising delivery times. These are indicative for a broad re-emergence of supply bottlenecks, and rising inflationary pressures.
The Week Ahead: 6-10 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
Eurozone inflation surges; ECB to hike in April
- Macro economy
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Eurozone inflation jumped in March to 2.5% y/y from 1.9% in February, in line with our forecast but a touch below consensus (2.6%). Core inflation in contrast moderated to 2.3%, in line with our forecast but also below consensus (2.4%). The rise was driven by a surge in petrol prices, as the rise in oil prices passed through to pump prices. This caused overall energy inflation to swing from a drag of -3.1% y/y in February to a 4.9% rise in March. Other categories of inflation were however comparatively muted, with food (2.3%), goods (0.5%), and services inflation (3.2%) all moderating. All of this reflects pre-Iran conflict inflation dynamics and we are likely to see a renewed pickup in these categories as the year progresses.
The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
Germany - Cautious recovery pressured by geopolitical uncertainty
- Macro economy
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A tentative recovery remains vulnerable as energy and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on the outlook. The sharp rise in factory orders at the end of 2025 has yet to translate into higher industrial production. Still, the allocation of special defence, infrastructure, and climate funds is gathering momentum.
Eurozone - An energy shock like nobody’s ever seen before
- Macro economy
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Europe faces a renewed energy shock, just when the remnants of the last one were finally fading. Still, as with most things emanating from Trumpworld, this shock is likely to hit differently to the last one. This time, we are seeing a sharp divergence in electricity prices among eurozone countries. ECB looks set to at least do an insurance hike – and probably another – to contain inflation expectations.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
Key views March 2026
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict is triggering a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will go on for, but our new base case assumes severe disruptions last until the end of May. The inflation shock will outweigh the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs will remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.
The Week Ahead - 23 - 27 March 2026
- Macro economy
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Key Macro Events 23 – 27 March 2026