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The Week Ahead - 30 June - 4 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 23 - 27 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 9 - 13 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 2 - 6 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global economic forecasts as of 27 May 2025
Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
Key views Global Monthly May 2025
The US and China have significantly de-escalated their trade war, bringing bilateral tariffs of 145% (on Chinese exports) and 125% (on US exports) down to 30% and 10% respectively. However, global trade is still likely to slow sharply as the tariffs that remain take their toll, and frontloading effects unwind, while the global economy (especially the US) will be weighed by extreme policy uncertainty. Interest rate cuts and other forms of policy support are a cushioning factor in the eurozone and China, while in the eurozone specifically, defence spending, and in Germany new infrastructure spending will support growth in 2026. Still, the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China face downside risks from weaker confidence, while in the US, demand will be hit by the tariff impact on real incomes. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. This is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with Fed policy staying on hold until 2026, and the ECB continuing to cut rates.
The Week Ahead - 26 - 30 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 19 - 23 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
FX Weekly - New USD/CNY forecasts
Tariff de-escalation supports US dollar versus FX majors. This comes at a time when the dollar was already recovering. The recovery could continue, but we expect the long-term downtrend in the dollar to remain in place. We downgrade USD/CNY from 7.80 to 7.30 for end-2025.