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The Week Ahead - 7 - 11 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global economic forecasts as of 2 July 2025
Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
Key views Global Monthly June/July 2025
Global growth expected to slow in the near term, as the US tariff shock drives an unwind of the frontloading of exports that occurred in Q1. While the tariff hit to growth remains significant, and the global economy (especially the US) will continue to be weighed by high policy uncertainty, downside risks have eased. Interest rate cuts and other forms of policy support are a cushioning factor in the eurozone and China, while in the eurozone specifically, defence spending, and in Germany new infrastructure spending will support growth in late 2025 and into 2026. Still, the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China face downside risks from weaker confidence, while in the US, demand will be hit by the tariff impact on real incomes. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. This is driving a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with Fed expected to stay on hold until 2026, and the ECB to cut rates somewhat further.
The Week Ahead - 30 June - 4 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 23 - 27 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 9 - 13 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 2 - 6 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Key views Global Monthly May 2025
The US and China have significantly de-escalated their trade war, bringing bilateral tariffs of 145% (on Chinese exports) and 125% (on US exports) down to 30% and 10% respectively. However, global trade is still likely to slow sharply as the tariffs that remain take their toll, and frontloading effects unwind, while the global economy (especially the US) will be weighed by extreme policy uncertainty. Interest rate cuts and other forms of policy support are a cushioning factor in the eurozone and China, while in the eurozone specifically, defence spending, and in Germany new infrastructure spending will support growth in 2026. Still, the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China face downside risks from weaker confidence, while in the US, demand will be hit by the tariff impact on real incomes. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. This is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with Fed policy staying on hold until 2026, and the ECB continuing to cut rates.
The Week Ahead - 26 - 30 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.