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The Week Ahead - 30 June - 4 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Japan: The Land of the Rising Yields
We expect drags from US tariffs to keep a lid on Japanese growth. Trade talks with the US are taking quite some time. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently lowered its inflation forecasts, but upside risks remain. We expect the BoJ to stay on a cautious, gradual hiking path. In its June meeting, the BoJ announced to slow its pace of tapering, as expected. High public debt and rising rates pose challenges, but there are risk-mitigating factors. Meanwhile, the Japanese government bond curve has steepened due to a higher term premium. We do not have indications for structural US debt outflows by Japanese investors, yet. We expect the yen to appreciate versus the US dollar in 2025-2026.
The Week Ahead - 23 - 27 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 9 - 13 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - May PMIs reminder of high tariffs
Trade war escalation still visible in Caixin’s manufacturing PMI.… a reminder of much higher US import tariffs despite Geneva-truce. Official composite PMI picks up slightly.
The Week Ahead - 2 - 6 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global economic forecasts as of 27 May 2025
Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
Global Monthly - Are we past the worst with tariffs?
The US-China trade truce shows that there are limits in how far the Trump administration is prepared go in implementing its radical trade agenda. We expect significant tariffs to remain in place, and this will weigh on growth in the near term. However, the trough in growth is likely to be shallower, and the downside risks significantly reduced. We lay out our forecast changes on the back of recent developments. Spotlight: Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill is highly regressive, puts upward pressure on bond yields, and risks amplifying economic downturns.
Key views Global Monthly May 2025
The US and China have significantly de-escalated their trade war, bringing bilateral tariffs of 145% (on Chinese exports) and 125% (on US exports) down to 30% and 10% respectively. However, global trade is still likely to slow sharply as the tariffs that remain take their toll, and frontloading effects unwind, while the global economy (especially the US) will be weighed by extreme policy uncertainty. Interest rate cuts and other forms of policy support are a cushioning factor in the eurozone and China, while in the eurozone specifically, defence spending, and in Germany new infrastructure spending will support growth in 2026. Still, the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China face downside risks from weaker confidence, while in the US, demand will be hit by the tariff impact on real incomes. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. This is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with Fed policy staying on hold until 2026, and the ECB continuing to cut rates.