Our research

The Week Ahead: 9-13 March 2026

These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.

What a prolonged LNG supply shock could mean for gas prices and inflation

Implications of Middle East escalation

The military escalation in the Middle East threatens the economy because of the disruption to energy supplies and increased uncertainty. Energy infrastructure has not yet been significantly impacted, but that remains a risk as air strikes continue to rage. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most important energy choke points - has come to a near stand-still. Any sustained energy price shock would have more noticeable effects on inflation than growth. We present inflation scenarios assuming oil at USD 80 per barrel, 100 and 130; in all cases inflation spikes in 2026 but falls back in 2027 . For monetary policy, the duration of the shock is crucial, as are second round effects, given the focus on the medium term.

The Week Ahead: 2-6 March 2026

These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.

Global economic forecasts as of 21 February 2026

Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.

Global Monthly - Geopolitics bad, macro good

While the risks have certainly not gone away, economic data has been generally firming, while near term positive impulses are getting stronger. Higher AI capex spending looks to be bigger than expected, fiscal stimulus is ramping up and financial conditions remain easy. So far geopolitics has been the dog, which barks very loudly, but does not bite. That cannot be taken for granted with Iran the latest flashpoint. SCOTUS decision to scrap IEEPA tariffs may not change too much, not least because fresh tariffs have largely replaced the old ones. There is an increasing chance that the global economy may run hot in the near term but also of a future hangover further down the line.

Top of Mind - Out with the old tariffs, in with the new

After a surprisingly long delay, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 last Friday that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the President the authority to impose tariffs. Importantly, they referred the decision on whether paid tariffs, over $160 billion, have to be refunded back to lower courts. The Trump administration was quick to reimpose tariffs through other means. Still, overall tariff levels were somewhat reduced, with some countries benefiting substantially more than others.

Key Macro Events 23-27 February

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

Key Macro Events 16 – 21 February 2026

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

ESG Economist - Renewables are at crossroads

Costs for onshore wind and solar PV have significantly decreased over the past decade but have stabilized recently, while CCS, battery storage, and hydrogen remain relatively expensive. Grid congestion, curtailment, and lower capture prices are becoming key bottlenecks. Batteries are essential for addressing grid constraints and renewable intermittency, enabling energy storage, grid stability, and improved project economics. Oversupply in battery production has resulted in significantly lower prices, but as demand and material prices rise, upward pressure on prices may emerge. The focus is moving from renewable capacity expansion to system integration, requiring investments in storage, grids, and flexible infrastructure for a resilient energy system.