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Podcast - The importance of the Federal Reserve independence

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

 - 

Bill DivineyRogier Quaedvlieg(+1)

In the first episode of ABN AMRO's new macroeconomic podcast, Bill Diviney (Head of Macro Research) and US economist Rogier Quaedvlieg dive into the recent attacks on Federal Reserve independence.

us fed building

Gas Market Monitor - Winter approaches and gas markets exhale

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

 - 

Moutaz Altaghlibi

Europe has filled 83% of gas storage, boosted by lower Asian LNG competition, increasing confidence for winter. Despite this, supply constraints persist until early 2026, when new capacity from the US and Canada is expected to ease the market. European industrial demand weakens amid global economic slowdown and tariffs, with recovery expected in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus. TTF prices remain sensitive to Middle East or other peace talks, sanctions, US-China trade war, and supply disruptions. Our outlook for Q4 year ahead contract to average around 38 EUR/MWh before easing in 2026.

Gas Market

The Week Ahead - 13 - 17 October 2025

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

 - 

Rogier QuaedvliegBill DivineyAggie van HuisselingJan-Paul van de KerkeArjen van Dijkhuizen(+4)

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

Data analyse

Global manufacturing: Still expanding, rising delivery times

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

 - 

Arjen van Dijkhuizen

Global manufacturing PMI for September more or less stable compared to August. On the global scale, supply conditions are still stronger than demand conditions. Delivery times to DMs have lengthened, mainly for US, but shipping tariffs are coming down.

Wereldwijde industrie

The Week Ahead - 6 - 10 October 2025

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

 - 

Arjen van DijkhuizenRogier QuaedvliegBill DivineyAggie van HuisselingJan-Paul van de Kerke(+4)

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

Data analyse

China - September PMIs point to some improvement

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

 - 

Arjen van Dijkhuizen

Following weak July/August data, September PMIs show some improvement on balance. China’s two manufacturing surveys show quite some divergence.Official non-manufacturing PMI further down, but composite PMIs up. Annual GDP growth still expected to slow in 2H-25, targeted support expected but no ‘bazooka’.

china index flag

ABN AMRO ESG Investor Survey – 2H 2025

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

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Larissa de Barros FritzFilipa de Carvalho Tomas(+1)

ABN AMRO is pleased to share the outcome of its annual investor survey. The survey is aimed at better understanding investors' behaviour, preferences and screening criteria for fixed income ESG investing. The outcome of the survey will also be presented during a webinar held on Monday, the 20th of October, at 14h CET.

fixed income investment

The Week Ahead - 29 September - 3 October 2025

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

 - 

Jan-Paul van de KerkeArjen van DijkhuizenRogier QuaedvliegBill DivineyAggie van Huisseling(+4)

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

Data analyse

Global economic forecasts as of 24 September 2025

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

 - 

Wilma SchelvisMarloes Dekker-Kok(+1)

Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.

world globe flags

Global Monthly - Are we ready for another Trump shock?

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

 - 

Bill DivineyJan-Paul van de KerkeAggie van HuisselingRogier QuaedvliegArjen van Dijkhuizen(+4)

We are seeing more signs of weaker exports and manufacturing from US tariffs, though the hit remains relatively mild so far. German fiscal spending and Chinese policy support should keep the impact of this soft patch contained. As the world grapples with one US-centred economic shock, another looms in the background: the potential loss of Fed independence. Spotlight: A less independent Fed would have implications well beyond US shores, and it could well lead to a resumption of ECB rate cuts.

us fed eagle
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