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Global industry and trade quite resilient, partly helped by AI boom
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI drops a bit in June, but remains well in expansion mode. Decline in June driven by advanced economies. Global trade accelerated in early 2026, supported by AI boom, slowed during Iran conflict. Delivery times and container tariffs have driven our global supply bottlenecks index higher. Price subindices ease on falling energy prices in June, but stay relatively high for now.
Key Views Global Monthly July 2026
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of a succession of shocks. With the latest energy shock now fading, a capex troika centred around AI, defence and the energy transition are likely to drive growth going forward. This is likely to support growth at roughly around trend rates in advanced economies over the coming quarters. The global investment surge is also supporting growth in China, the economy of which remains nonetheless imbalanced to the point that it is engendering new trade tensions with the EU. Against this backdrop, inflation will remain somewhat elevated over the coming months, and this should keep central banks leaning hawkish, with the ECB expected to raise rates one last time in September. Both central banks are then expected to resume rate cuts in early 2027.
Global economic forecasts as of 2 July 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China: Balance of risks improves; imbalances get worse
- Macro economy
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Hit from energy shock offset by strong exports on the back of global tech/AI boom. China managed energy shock quite well; officially reported oil imports sharply down in April/May. Balance of risks to our growth forecasts is improving, but supply-demand imbalances are rising.
US - Hawk at the summit, Dove on the horizon
- Macro economy
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Inflation has increased on the back of the energy shock, but is expected to decrease from here. Labour market strength is overstated due to frontloaded hiring in services, causing a drag on Q3 hiring.
Germany - Political uncertainty keeps weighing on economy
- Macro economy
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The economy is stabilizing but remains fragile, with inflation above target. Some progress on pension reforms, but internal tensions persist. Rising political risks and uncertainty due to voter dissatisfaction.
Spotlight - Oil’s bearish turn premature, but worst looks behind us
- Natural resources
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Oil prices have fallen sharply, but current levels appear low relative to tight physical market conditions. Inventories remain low, while summer travel and refinery activity should support oil demand. Supply is expected to recover next year, while demand growth should be limited by ongoing decarbonisation in transport. Our new end-year forecasts are USD 80 per barrel for Brent and USD 75 for WTI; for end-2027 we expect USD 70 for Brent and USD 65 for WTI.
Global Monthly - Teflon economy shaking off another shock
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of persistent shocks. The AI boom, defence spending and the energy transition ‘capex troika’ are likely to continue supporting growth going forward. Still, AI bubble risk, and sovereign debt dynamics remain a worry.
FX Weekly - Dollar rally masks lingering risks
- Macro economy
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The dollar rally has been driven mainly by a reassessment of the Fed outlook. Markets may have gone too far in pricing in Fed rate hikes; we still expect rate cuts. Extreme positioning in sterling and yen increases the risk of sharp currency moves. Dollar strength may continue over the summer, but US risks could return to focus after the holiday period.
Gas Market Monitor - Gas markets find relief as Europe races to refill storage
- Macro economy
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Europe’s reliance on LNG has increased since 2022, raising its exposure to global LNG disruptions; the US supplied 58% of European LNG imports in 2025. European gas prices initially surged on the Iran conflict but later eased as Asian demand weakened and US LNG inflows increased. The US-Iran agreement provided further relief, pushing TTF prices around 15% lower, although short term prices remain higher than long term ones. High injection-season prices have discouraged storage filling, leaving EU storage at a seasonal low of 44.7%. Stable Norwegian and US inflows, returning Qatari supply, and weaker Asian competition should allow Europe to reach around 75% storage by October. However, renewed conflict, supply disruptions, adverse weather, or project delays could slow replenishment and keep prices elevated. We expect gas prices to remain above seasonal averages, averaging 46 EUR/MWh in Q2, 43 EUR/MWh in Q3, and around 48 EUR/MWh during the heating season.
