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The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
US - Actions have consequences
- Macro economy
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Outside direct and indirect effects of the AI boom, the US economy grew at near stall speed in 2025. Low labour supply growth led to near-zero job creation, but also prevented unemployment from rising. With tariff inflation yet to dissipate, the Iran conflict generates another policy-induced inflation shock.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
Key views March 2026
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict is triggering a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will go on for, but our new base case assumes severe disruptions last until the end of May. The inflation shock will outweigh the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs will remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.
A dovish Fed response may not be so terrible
- Macro economy
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The world economy is facing another cost-push shock. US household energy costs are set to rise sharply. This will further widen the K-shaped economy, as lower income households are forced to reduce spending immediately. A weak labour market reduces the risk of second round inflation effects. Demand weakness and second-round pressures may largely offset each other. Keeping rates fixed may very well be the appropriate response.
The Week Ahead: 16-20 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
China Macro Watch - On Iran, Trump-Xi, NPC and bullish data
- Macro economy
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China and the Middle East conflict: Impact cushioned. The coming Trump-Xi meeting: Safeguarding the fragile equilibrium. Key take-aways from the annual March political/policy sessions. Recent macro data have turned more ‘bullish’.
Macro scenarios of the Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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The conflict in between the US-Israel and Iran has entered its 11th day. Geopolitical risk, as measured by the GPR index, has spiked to levels last seen around the Iraq invasion in 2003, and has remained highly elevated since. Since our initial publication last week Monday, it has been a rollercoaster ride for both oil and gas markets [1]. Given the ongoing uncertainty around the duration and impact of the conflict, we have put together three scenarios exploring how the macro-economic impact could evolve over the coming months, focused on the US and eurozone, and with the implications for the ECB and Fed’s key policy rates. We will follow up this note with updates on how we see these scenarios impacting bond and FX markets in the coming days.
The Week Ahead: 9-13 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead: 2-6 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.