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The Week Ahead - 20 - 24 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Fed Watch – Frontloaded easing increases inflation risks
- Macro economy
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Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting. He stated that the economic outlook appeared unchanged since the FOMC last met in September. Then, they lowered interest rates by 25 bps due to downside risks to a weakening labour market, even if the weakening is largely being driven by the supply side.
Podcast - The importance of the Federal Reserve independence
- Macro economy
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In the first episode of ABN AMRO's new macroeconomic podcast, Bill Diviney (Head of Macro Research) and US economist Rogier Quaedvlieg dive into the recent attacks on Federal Reserve independence.
The Week Ahead - 13 - 17 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global manufacturing: Still expanding, rising delivery times
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI for September more or less stable compared to August. On the global scale, supply conditions are still stronger than demand conditions. Delivery times to DMs have lengthened, mainly for US, but shipping tariffs are coming down.
The Week Ahead - 6 - 10 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US Watch – Government shutdown adds labour market noise
- Macro economy
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This morning, the US government went into shutdown. Democrats and Republicans couldn’t agree on a bill funding government services beyond October. Even though Republicans control Congress, their slim majority is insufficient for to pass the 60-vote threshold needed in the Senate. Democrats used this leverage to try to improve healthcare access for Americans, by demanding an extension of tax credits on health insurance set to expire in January, and to reverse some OBBBA cuts to Medicaid and various health agencies. Republicans refused to comply, and no resolution was found before the funding deadline expired.
The Week Ahead - 29 September - 3 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US - This is what stagflation looks like
- Macro economy
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The Fed did a ‘risk management cut’ of 25 bps as inflation and employment risks approach balance. Tariffs and the immigration crackdown led to an immediate stagflationary impulse, but the overall picture is nothing like the 1970s yet. Early Q3 data is actually showing some signs of a modest recovery in consumption and investment.
Global Monthly - Are we ready for another Trump shock?
- Macro economy
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We are seeing more signs of weaker exports and manufacturing from US tariffs, though the hit remains relatively mild so far. German fiscal spending and Chinese policy support should keep the impact of this soft patch contained. As the world grapples with one US-centred economic shock, another looms in the background: the potential loss of Fed independence. Spotlight: A less independent Fed would have implications well beyond US shores, and it could well lead to a resumption of ECB rate cuts.
