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Global economic forecasts as of 22 April 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
Eurozone - The ECB can afford to wait, for now
- Macro economy
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Governments are taking the edge off the energy shock, but inflation is still yet to reach a peak. Still, even a more negative inflation shock is likely to be an order of magnitude smaller than in 2022-23. Hard data suggests a tepid start to the year, and likely downside risks to our 0.2% Q1 growth forecast. Even hawkish Governing Council members seem minded to hold rates at the 30 April ECB meeting, leading us to push back our call for hikes to June and July.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz stand-off
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict has morphed from a hot war to an economic one, with both sides using the Hormuz chokepoint as negotiation leverage. Energy supply disruptions are bigger than ever, but market worries have subsided, with peace efforts given the benefit of the doubt. We make only incremental forecast adjustments this month, keeping our core view that severe energy disruptions persist to end-May. We also update our more positive and negative scenarios for the conflict.
Key views Global Monthly April 2026
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict is triggering a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will go on for, but our new base case assumes severe disruptions last until the end of May. The inflation shock will outweigh the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs will remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.
Iran ceasefire - Is this a turning point?
- Natural resources
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A two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran offers a welcome pause and the prospect of renewed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. But much uncertainties remain, leaving risks of renewed disruption firmly on the horizon.
Eurozone inflation surges; ECB to hike in April
- Macro economy
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Eurozone inflation jumped in March to 2.5% y/y from 1.9% in February, in line with our forecast but a touch below consensus (2.6%). Core inflation in contrast moderated to 2.3%, in line with our forecast but also below consensus (2.4%). The rise was driven by a surge in petrol prices, as the rise in oil prices passed through to pump prices. This caused overall energy inflation to swing from a drag of -3.1% y/y in February to a 4.9% rise in March. Other categories of inflation were however comparatively muted, with food (2.3%), goods (0.5%), and services inflation (3.2%) all moderating. All of this reflects pre-Iran conflict inflation dynamics and we are likely to see a renewed pickup in these categories as the year progresses.
The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
Eurozone - An energy shock like nobody’s ever seen before
- Macro economy
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Europe faces a renewed energy shock, just when the remnants of the last one were finally fading. Still, as with most things emanating from Trumpworld, this shock is likely to hit differently to the last one. This time, we are seeing a sharp divergence in electricity prices among eurozone countries. ECB looks set to at least do an insurance hike – and probably another – to contain inflation expectations.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
Key views March 2026
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict is triggering a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will go on for, but our new base case assumes severe disruptions last until the end of May. The inflation shock will outweigh the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs will remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.
