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The Week Ahead - 15 - 19 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ECB set to stay on hold, despite inflation undershoot
- Macro economy
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The ECB kept its policy rates on hold in September, for the second consecutive meeting.
Hot summer to fuel eurozone inflation
- Macro economy
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The short-term impact of climate change on inflation often is analysed by looking at transition risks, such as the impact of carbon pricing and its consequences for energy price inflation. For instance, in its December 2024 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the eurozone[1], the ECB estimates that national green discretionary fiscal measures (e.g. carbon pricing and energy taxes) added 0.2 percentage points to eurozone inflation in 2024 and will add a similar amount in 2025. Moreover, ECB staff project that the expansion of emissions trading to heating of buildings and transportation could add up to 0.4pp[2] to inflation in 2027. In contrast to transition policies, the impact of acute and chronic physical climate risks on inflation is considered to be significant only in the medium to longer term. Still, climate and weather-related hazards, such as temperature extremes, storms, floods, drought and wildfires is rising and its economic damage are increasing. Consequently, global food prices have occasionally been lifted by extreme climate and weather-related events. As climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of various extreme weather events in the coming years, the impact on inflation should also become more significant. In this note we analyse the short-term impact of acute physical climate risk on food prices and headline inflation in the eurozone.
The Week Ahead - 8 - 12 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ECB preview: The ECB’s rate cut cycle…it’s probably over
- Macro economy
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The Governing Council kept policy on hold in July, and is likely to remain on hold at the September meeting and for the foreseeable future.
Eurozone food inflation still elevated, but otherwise benign
- Macro economy
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HICP inflation edged slightly higher in August to 2.1% y/y from 2.0% in July, in line with our and consensus expectations. Core inflation held steady at 2.3%, in line with our expectations but above consensus expectations for a move lower to 2.2. Dutch inflation maintained its slow gradual downward trend in August. The CPI came in at 2.8% y/y, slightly lower than the 2.9% of July.
The Week Ahead - 25 August - 5 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming 2 weeks.
Eurozone - Spreading the pain
- Macro economy
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The tariff shock is unfolding more gradually, with a milder but more prolonged growth hit. The impact is also blunted by solid consumption, helped by falling rates and benign inflation. The ECB is now expected to look through the undershoot of its 2% inflation target. This means no further rate cuts on our forecast horizon, and the deposit rate holding at 2% for the foreseeable future.
Global Monthly - Bracing for impact
- Macro economy
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The tariff deals the US struck over the summer have averted a worst case scenario for the global economy. The impact of tariffs remains uncertain, and depends on how, when and where businesses pass on the tariffs to consumers. We have modestly downgraded our eurozone growth forecast as tariff rates came in somewhat higher than the base case. Stronger domestic demand is helping, amid US and China weakness.
Key views Global Monthly August 2025
- Macro economy
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Global growth is slowing, as the US tariff shock drives an unwind of the frontloading of exports that occurred in Q1. While the tariff hit to growth remains significant, the deals struck over the summer – to the extent that they stick – have limited the downside risks. Interest rate cuts and other forms of policy support are a cushioning factor in the eurozone and China, while in the eurozone specifically, defence spending, and in Germany new infrastructure spending will support growth in late 2025 and into 2026. Still, the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China face downside risks from weaker confidence, while in the US, demand will be hit by the tariff impact on real incomes. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. This maintains the divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with the Fed expected to keep policy in restrictive territory until 2026, and the ECB keeping rates a little above our estimate of neutral.
