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Podcast - Exploring Global Trade Dynamics: Tariffs, 'Chokepoints,' and Economic Shifts
- Macro economy
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In the second episode of ABN AMRO's new podcast, 'Talking Macro,' host Bill Diviney, Head of Macro Research, discusses Europe's perspective on global economic developments.
The Week Ahead - 17 - 21 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global Outlook 2026 - Eurozone: External environment rough, will Europe step up?
- Macro economy
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The eurozone economy performed well in 2025, despite the headwinds from US tariffs and intense competition from China – even if that performance is exaggerated by outlier Ireland. We expect growth to re-accelerate in 2026 as German fiscal spending ramps up, though southern European outperformance is expected to wane on the end of the EU’s Recovery & Resilience Facility. The ECB is expected to stay on hold through 2026-7. Near term risks are tilted to another cut given the looming inflation undershoot, but those risks could tilt towards a hike as 2027 develops.
Global Outlook 2026 - The shifting world order
- Macro economy
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The transition from one world order to another is in full swing, but it is still unclear how that new world order will look. The advent of AI, China’s rise, and the US’s relative decline offer challenges but also opportunities. The trade war weapon du jour has shifted from tariffs to chokepoints, creating new challenges for governments and manufacturers. Fiscal troubles in France and the UK are likely to remain a worry. Global growth has been remarkably resilient given the headwinds. We expect that resilience to continue in 2026, albeit with considerable risks.
Key views Global Outlook 2026
- Macro economy
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The transition from one world order to another is in full swing, but it is still unclear how that new world order will look. The advent of AI, China’s rise, and the US’s relative decline offer challenges but also opportunities. The trade war weapon du jour has shifted from tariffs to chokepoints, creating new challenges for governments and manufacturers. Global growth has been remarkably resilient given the headwinds. We expect that resilience to continue in 2026, albeit with considerable risks. Growth in the US is expected to stay solid, but this masks variation and vulnerability below the surface. Eurozone growth is expected to pick up on higher German fiscal spending, while China is expected to implement some modest demand-supportive measures while keeping its manufacturing growth model broadly intact. Fiscal troubles in France and the UK are likely to remain a worry. Inflation in the US is expected to continue accelerating, but to fall below target in the eurozone. Despite this, the divergence in Fed & ECB rates is expected to narrow significantly, with the ECB ‘looking through’ the inflation undershoot in the eurozone and the Fed ‘looking through’ the US inflation overshoot by continuing to cut rates.
The Week Ahead - 10 -14 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Ugly Contest: Part I - Can France dig itself out of a fiscal hole?
- Macro economy
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France wins the Ugly Contest for now, but the UK has its own major risks
The Week Ahead - 3 - 7 November 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ECB increasingly comfortable on hold
- Macro economy
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The ECB kept its key policy interest rates steady for the third successive meeting and its commentary suggested that it is increasingly comfortable maintaining this policy stance going forward.
The Week Ahead - 27 - 31 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.