Our research

The Week Ahead: 6-10 April 2026

These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.

Dutch manufacturing sector reports highest inflation since 2022

The war in the Middle East is leading to a new wave of inflation, according to the first Nevi Dutch Manufacturing survey since the beginning of the war. Both purchase and output prices are rising at the fastest pace in more than three years.

Housing market monitor - Uncertainty is slowing the housing market

We expect home prices to rise 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. Income growth and limited supply still outweigh rising mortgage rates. We expect the number of transactions to fall 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. The decline in the number of transactions is linked to growing uncertainty and a limited number of newly added homes.

The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026

These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.

The Netherlands - A new energy shock while still digesting the former

The fallout from the war in the Middle East means we have adjusted our forecasts. We have slightly downgraded our 2026 growth forecast, while upgrading our inflation forecast. We now expect growth in 2026 to average 1.5% (was 1.6%), and 1.2% in 2026 (was 1.4%). The uncertainty around inflation is high with an upgraded forecast of 2.8% in 2026 (was 2.2%). While the timing of the energy shock is unfavourable the economy is resilient.

Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO

With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.

Key views March 2026

The Iran conflict is triggering a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will go on for, but our new base case assumes severe disruptions last until the end of May. The inflation shock will outweigh the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs will remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.

Macro scenarios of the Iran conflict

The conflict in between the US-Israel and Iran has entered its 11th day. Geopolitical risk, as measured by the GPR index, has spiked to levels last seen around the Iraq invasion in 2003, and has remained highly elevated since. Since our initial publication last week Monday, it has been a rollercoaster ride for both oil and gas markets [1]. Given the ongoing uncertainty around the duration and impact of the conflict, we have put together three scenarios exploring how the macro-economic impact could evolve over the coming months, focused on the US and eurozone, and with the implications for the ECB and Fed’s key policy rates. We will follow up this note with updates on how we see these scenarios impacting bond and FX markets in the coming days.

The Week Ahead: 9-13 March 2026

These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.

What a prolonged LNG supply shock could mean for gas prices and inflation