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ESG Economist - EU: Road to 2030 climate targets still bumpy
Europe is striving to do its part in the effort to limit global warming. The first hurdle on the road to meeting the target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 is meeting the EU climate and energy targets for 2030. The next hurdle is setting new intermediate targets for 2040. It is likely that chances of successfully setting a credible and sufficient 2040 target are influenced by the chances of meeting the 2030 target, as climate action will have to be stepped up during the period 2030-2040 in case the 2030 targets were missed. This note focuses on the probabilities of meeting the 2030 targets, based on the European Commission’s evaluation of the latest National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of the individual Member States.
ESG Economist - Understanding European Social Housing Through a Comparative Lens
According to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, everyone has the right to housing, regardless of their employment status, health, or other conditions. In this note we dive deeper into the structures of social housing in four European countries: the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Germany and France.
The Netherlands - Political turmoil amid economic resilience
Q1 GDP revisions suggest a more positive start to 2025, lifting our annual forecast from 1.2% to 1.6%. Tariffs will weigh on activity in the near term, directly and indirectly via main trading partners. The Dutch government fell, adding domestic policy uncertainty amid elevated international uncertainty. With elections on 29 October, 2026 will be well underway before a new government is installed.
Global Monthly - Six themes to watch over the summer
Despite the rollercoaster ride in between, the landing zone for tariffs is looking remarkably close to our expectations last November. Trade deals are likely to be announced over the coming weeks, and even if they aren’t, we will probably see deadlines pushed back. Growth is still expected to slow near-term, but downside risks have been reduced, while a re-escalation is likely to prove short-lived. Further out, the US economy is expected to weaken, while eurozone growth is expected to pickup, driven by higher German fiscal spending. We preview these and other themes to watch over the summer. Spotlight: In this Sustainability special, we lay out the macro-economic impact of Net Zero and Delayed Transition scenarios.
Key views Global Monthly June/July 2025
Global growth expected to slow in the near term, as the US tariff shock drives an unwind of the frontloading of exports that occurred in Q1. While the tariff hit to growth remains significant, and the global economy (especially the US) will continue to be weighed by high policy uncertainty, downside risks have eased. Interest rate cuts and other forms of policy support are a cushioning factor in the eurozone and China, while in the eurozone specifically, defence spending, and in Germany new infrastructure spending will support growth in late 2025 and into 2026. Still, the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China face downside risks from weaker confidence, while in the US, demand will be hit by the tariff impact on real incomes. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. This is driving a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with Fed expected to stay on hold until 2026, and the ECB to cut rates somewhat further.
Housing market monitor - Income growth and limited supply drive up house prices
We expect house price growth of 8% by 2025 (was 7%). Price growth is driven primarily by income growth and supply shortage. Housing transactions are expected to increase by 12.5% in 2025 (was 5%). Sales of investment properties boost housing transactions.
Dutch manufacturing industry surprises with increase in new orders
The Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.0 to 51.2 in June. For the first time in a year, the score is above 50, indicating an expansion of business activity. Despite trade tensions with the United States, the level of new orders was on the rise.
The Week Ahead - 30 June - 4 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
NATO Summit - Defence spending to still rise significantly, even if 3.5% is unrealistic
NATO leaders today voted to officially raise the alliance’s defence spending target to 5% of GDP from 2% previously, comprised of 3.5% in core defence spending (the figure directly comparable to the previous 2% target) and 1.5% in infrastructure related to defence. With many countries likely to have already met the latter target, the really important number is the 3.5%, and it is here where there are major doubts over both the willingness but also the capability of meeting this target. Spain has a vague exemption from the target, while other countries openly doubted the target in the run up to the Summit.
The Week Ahead - 23 - 27 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.