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The Netherlands - Heading into budget and election season
Q2 GDP came in at 0.1% q/q, roughly in line with our expectations (0.2% q/q), leading to small tweaks to our annual forecast of 1.5% in 2025 (from 1.6%) and 1.1% in 2026 (from 1.3%). Tariffs will weigh on activity in the near term, directly and indirectly via main trading partners. 2026 growth benefits from rate cuts, solid demand and fiscal spending in main trading partner Germany. After summer, it is all eyes on the Hague, with the caretaker government presenting the 2026 budget, and the election campaign ahead of the 29 October elections.
Global Monthly - Bracing for impact
The tariff deals the US struck over the summer have averted a worst case scenario for the global economy. The impact of tariffs remains uncertain, and depends on how, when and where businesses pass on the tariffs to consumers. We have modestly downgraded our eurozone growth forecast as tariff rates came in somewhat higher than the base case. Stronger domestic demand is helping, amid US and China weakness.
Key views Global Monthly August 2025
Global growth is slowing, as the US tariff shock drives an unwind of the frontloading of exports that occurred in Q1. While the tariff hit to growth remains significant, the deals struck over the summer – to the extent that they stick – have limited the downside risks. Interest rate cuts and other forms of policy support are a cushioning factor in the eurozone and China, while in the eurozone specifically, defence spending, and in Germany new infrastructure spending will support growth in late 2025 and into 2026. Still, the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China face downside risks from weaker confidence, while in the US, demand will be hit by the tariff impact on real incomes. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. This maintains the divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with the Fed expected to keep policy in restrictive territory until 2026, and the ECB keeping rates a little above our estimate of neutral.
ECB rate cut cycle most likely over
Eurozone Q2 GDP Unchanged at 0.1%; we changed our ECB-view and now expect the ECB to Keep Rates on Hold at 2%
Housing market monitor - Energy transition
The Dutch housing market must comply with EU energy efficiency regulations by 2030. The Netherlands seems on track to meet the EPBD energy reduction targets, even if there is little room for errors. Improving the worst-performing share of the housing stock remains a challenge, putting the targets at risk. Lower-income households in particular need more support.
Further increase in business activity for Dutch manufacturing sector
The Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI rose further in July, from 51.2 to 51.9, in part reflecting a further increase in activity.
Eurozone Q2 GDP - Trade war collides with recovering domestic demand
Eurozone Q2 GDP surprised to the upside at 0.1% q/q, following growth of 0.6% in Q1. The Q2 outturn was well above our forecast for a small contraction (-0.2%) and a bit above consensus (0.0%). The miss on our part was largely driven by Ireland, but France also surprised to the upside (see below).
ESG Economist - EU: Road to 2030 climate targets still bumpy
Europe is striving to do its part in the effort to limit global warming. The first hurdle on the road to meeting the target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 is meeting the EU climate and energy targets for 2030. The next hurdle is setting new intermediate targets for 2040. It is likely that chances of successfully setting a credible and sufficient 2040 target are influenced by the chances of meeting the 2030 target, as climate action will have to be stepped up during the period 2030-2040 in case the 2030 targets were missed. This note focuses on the probabilities of meeting the 2030 targets, based on the European Commission’s evaluation of the latest National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of the individual Member States.
ESG Economist - Understanding European Social Housing Through a Comparative Lens
According to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, everyone has the right to housing, regardless of their employment status, health, or other conditions. In this note we dive deeper into the structures of social housing in four European countries: the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Germany and France.
The Netherlands - Political turmoil amid economic resilience
Q1 GDP revisions suggest a more positive start to 2025, lifting our annual forecast from 1.2% to 1.6%. Tariffs will weigh on activity in the near term, directly and indirectly via main trading partners. The Dutch government fell, adding domestic policy uncertainty amid elevated international uncertainty. With elections on 29 October, 2026 will be well underway before a new government is installed.