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US Elections – Spiraling debt is base case
The US debt-to-GDP ratio is on an explosive trajectory, fueled by healthcare and interest expenditures. Neither candidate has proposed policies sufficient to stabilize the ratio. With the exception of debt ceiling negotiations, the impact of large deficits will not be felt during this presidential term.
What are the macro implications of the Middle East escalation?
Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Tuesday further fueled worries of a wider war in the Middle East. What are the macro implications of the escalation? Energy markets remain the most obvious transmission channel.
The week ahead - 7 - 11 October 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Contraction in global manufacturing deepens
Global manufacturing PMI slides further into contraction territory. A broad-based weakening. Industrial goods’ price pressures fade.
September inflation fall seals October ECB cut
Headline inflation in the eurozone fell sharply to 1.8% y/y, down from 2.2% in August. Core inflation edged only slightly lower to 2.7% from 2.8% in August.
Sharp rise in fossil energy consumption in Dutch industry
In this edition of our Dutch Industry Sustainability Monitor (Q3), we look at trends in fossil energy consumption in the sector. In particular, we look at the trends in gas consumption of the industrial sectors that consume the most. Finally, we show where industrial GHG emissions take place in the value chain and what our expectations are for GHG emissions for the coming quarter.
US Watch - US Elections - The Fed will be alright, but…
Any attempt to reduce the Federal Reserve’s independence is unlikely to get very far. The judicial branch has already been greatly politicized, paving the way to do the same to the executive branch. A weakening of the separation of powers may further concentrate power and capital, harming societal welfare.
Global economic forecasts as of 27 September 2024
Group Economics writes daily about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, prices in commodity markets and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
The week ahead: 30 September - 4 October 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - Long-term industrial policy vs. short-term demand management
Chinese economy remains stuck in low gear, with the property downturn still dragging on demand. The September PBoC support package helps mitigate downside risks to our 2024/25 growth forecasts and will likely be followed by additional (fiscal) support to have a more meaningful, lasting effect.