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The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
China - Reviewing our forecasts on the Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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Macro data have gotten more ‘bullish’ just before Middle East escalation. Slight adjustment of our growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 on Iran conflict. Despite excess supply, cost-push pressures from energy price spike lead to higher inflation forecasts.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
The Week Ahead: 16-20 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
China Macro Watch - On Iran, Trump-Xi, NPC and bullish data
- Macro economy
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China and the Middle East conflict: Impact cushioned. The coming Trump-Xi meeting: Safeguarding the fragile equilibrium. Key take-aways from the annual March political/policy sessions. Recent macro data have turned more ‘bullish’.
Macro scenarios of the Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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The conflict in between the US-Israel and Iran has entered its 11th day. Geopolitical risk, as measured by the GPR index, has spiked to levels last seen around the Iraq invasion in 2003, and has remained highly elevated since. Since our initial publication last week Monday, it has been a rollercoaster ride for both oil and gas markets [1]. Given the ongoing uncertainty around the duration and impact of the conflict, we have put together three scenarios exploring how the macro-economic impact could evolve over the coming months, focused on the US and eurozone, and with the implications for the ECB and Fed’s key policy rates. We will follow up this note with updates on how we see these scenarios impacting bond and FX markets in the coming days.
The Week Ahead: 9-13 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead: 2-6 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
China - Beijing to keep targeted approach amid record trade surplus
- Macro economy
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Mixed macro data as China enters the Year of the (Fire) Horse. Domestic supply-demand imbalances culminate in record trade surpluses. Policy targets to be announced in early March; China to benefit from US Supreme Court ruling.
Global Monthly - Geopolitics bad, macro good
- Macro economy
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While the risks have certainly not gone away, economic data has been generally firming, while near term positive impulses are getting stronger. Higher AI capex spending looks to be bigger than expected, fiscal stimulus is ramping up and financial conditions remain easy. So far geopolitics has been the dog, which barks very loudly, but does not bite. That cannot be taken for granted with Iran the latest flashpoint. SCOTUS decision to scrap IEEPA tariffs may not change too much, not least because fresh tariffs have largely replaced the old ones. There is an increasing chance that the global economy may run hot in the near term but also of a future hangover further down the line.
