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China: Chokepoint challenges
- Macro economy
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US-China: New chokepoint tensions illustrative for ‘fragile equilibrium’. Annual real GDP growth drops below 5% in Q3, as expected. Investment growth negative in September; industrial production strong. CCP to discuss 15th Five Year-Plan (2026-2030) this week.
The Week Ahead - 20 - 24 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 13 - 17 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global manufacturing: Still expanding, rising delivery times
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI for September more or less stable compared to August. On the global scale, supply conditions are still stronger than demand conditions. Delivery times to DMs have lengthened, mainly for US, but shipping tariffs are coming down.
The Week Ahead - 6 - 10 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - September PMIs point to some improvement
- Macro economy
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Following weak July/August data, September PMIs show some improvement on balance. China’s two manufacturing surveys show quite some divergence.Official non-manufacturing PMI further down, but composite PMIs up. Annual GDP growth still expected to slow in 2H-25, targeted support expected but no ‘bazooka’.
The Week Ahead - 29 September - 3 October 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - Managing the growth slowdown amidst a ‘hot’ stock market
- Macro economy
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Domestic weakness broadened over the summer, with investment growth cooling sharply. We expect Beijing to add targeted stimulus to safeguard growth, but a ‘bazooka’ is still unlikely. Meanwhile, China’s stock markets do not seem to care about weaker macro data.
Global Monthly - Are we ready for another Trump shock?
- Macro economy
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We are seeing more signs of weaker exports and manufacturing from US tariffs, though the hit remains relatively mild so far. German fiscal spending and Chinese policy support should keep the impact of this soft patch contained. As the world grapples with one US-centred economic shock, another looms in the background: the potential loss of Fed independence. Spotlight: A less independent Fed would have implications well beyond US shores, and it could well lead to a resumption of ECB rate cuts.
The Week Ahead - 22 - 26 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.