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Global industry accelerates on stockpiling, rising delivery times
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI at four-year high in April, driven by ‘stockpiling’. Delivery times are lenghtening, particularly for developed economies. Our global supply bottlenecks index stays in ‘excess demand territory’. Inflationary pressures from global industry pick up further.
China - A tale of resilience, Iran risks and chokepoints
- Macro economy
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Real GDP accelerated a bit in Q1, as expected, but risks from the Middle East still loom. March macro data already show some impact of the Iran conflict. Blockage of energy chokepoint Strait of Hormuz is a test for US-China relations.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz stand-off
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict has morphed from a hot war to an economic one, with both sides using the Hormuz chokepoint as negotiation leverage. Energy supply disruptions are bigger than ever, but market worries have subsided, with peace efforts given the benefit of the doubt. We make only incremental forecast adjustments this month, keeping our core view that severe energy disruptions persist to end-May. We also update our more positive and negative scenarios for the conflict.
Global industry impacted by Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI comes down again in March on escalation of Iran conflict. Relatively strong readings for developed economies flattered by rising delivery times. These are indicative for a broad re-emergence of supply bottlenecks, and rising inflationary pressures.
The Week Ahead: 6-10 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
China - Reviewing our forecasts on the Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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Macro data have gotten more ‘bullish’ just before Middle East escalation. Slight adjustment of our growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 on Iran conflict. Despite excess supply, cost-push pressures from energy price spike lead to higher inflation forecasts.
Global Monthly - It takes three to TACO
- Macro economy
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With the Iran conflict ongoing and the chance of a ceasefire uncertain, we update our base case for growth, inflation and interest rates. We assume severe energy disruptions last until the end of May, and this could happen even if the conflict ends relatively soon. The inflation impact of the energy shock continues to outweigh the growth hit, and central bank responses are therefore likely to tilt hawkish. We now expect the ECB to hike rates twice in Q2, and the Fed to delay cuts to Q4. Both central banks are expected to cut rates in 2027.
The Week Ahead: 16-20 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
China Macro Watch - On Iran, Trump-Xi, NPC and bullish data
- Macro economy
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China and the Middle East conflict: Impact cushioned. The coming Trump-Xi meeting: Safeguarding the fragile equilibrium. Key take-aways from the annual March political/policy sessions. Recent macro data have turned more ‘bullish’.
