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China - The world alone is not enough
- Macro economy
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GDP growth in 2026 supported by spillovers from global AI boom, but imbalances have worsened. Ongoing targeted, piecemeal support expected to safeguard GDP growth in 2027. The Six Networks scheme should contribute to a turnaround in investment. Despite hiccups, we do not expect trade relations with US/EU to spiral out of control next year. We expect annual real GDP growth to remain around 4.5% in 2027 and 2028.
Global Outlook - How resilient is resilience?
- Macro economy
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In this publication we present our economic outlook for the year ahead, while also adding our forecasts for 2028 for the first time. The global economy has expanded robustly despite many shocks over the past few years. We will explain why we think the economic expansion will continue, though we could once see more divergence between the US and the rest of the world, with Europe in particular falling behind. In addition, we explore a number of risks hanging over the global economy, which could potentially challenge the global economy’s remarkable record of resilience.
Will China Shock 2.0 trigger an EU-China trade war?
- Macro economy
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In this Global Outlook special, we analyse China’s rise in high-tech manufacturing and the impact on the EU economy and EU trade policy . ‘China Shock 2.0’ is Europe’s defining competitive challenge, and the EU is expanding its trade toolkit to manage China-related challenges/risks. We see the EU taking a tougher stance, with China likely to respond in kind. Given their mutual economic interests, we do not expect these tensions to escalate into a full-scale trade war.
China: Growth improves, imbalances remain
- Macro economy
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Real GDP growth picks up moderately in Q3, in line with our forecast. September data confirm pick-up of growth momentum during summer. Supply-demand imbalances do not show signs of easing.
China - Growth momentum improves; more targeted support coming
- Macro economy
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Some signs of improving growth momentum, as fiscal support is filtering through. Beijing comes with some additional targeted support measures to safeguard growth. Trump and Xi preserving the guardrails; EU-China trade relations at a critical juncture.
Global Monthly - Will the bond sell-off derail the economy?
- Macro economy
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The global economy has shrugged off repeated shocks, but rising bond yields are emerging as a new challenge to the expansion. Bond markets are mostly pricing higher neutral rates, with fiscal concerns adding to yield increases in France, Belgium and the UK. Higher rates may slow the expansion, but they are unlikely to derail the US or eurozone economies on their own. The growth impact will be bigger in fiscally vulnerable economies, with France facing the twin challenge of consolidation and bigger rate rises. Markets may be overestimating how long policy rates will stay elevated, leaving room for bond yields to fall back next year. Regional updates: Rising yields temper rate hike pace in the Eurozone. We raise our growth forecast in the Netherlands following a strong H1. In the US, narrower inflation reduces the urgency of the Fed to hike. Growth gains momentum in China helped by targeted fiscal support
Macro Watch - Global trade and manufacturing keep expanding on AI/tech boom
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI climbs to highest level since early 2022. The global AI/tech cycle is lifting all boats. Improvements seen at both the demand and the supply side. Global trade keeps expanding driven by the global AI boom and other special factors. Supply bottlenecks do not show signs of easing.
Japan - The BoJ carries on
- Macro economy
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Q2 GDP and monthly data point to strengthening growth momentum, …although risks stem from larger and longer energy shocks, rising interest rates, frictions with China and a potential slowing of the AI boom. Inflation driven up by energy shock, AI boom, and stronger wage growth. Regime shift 1: Rate hike path BoJ (we expect another hike tomorrow) and QT (although moderated) a key factor pushing up bond yields… Regime shift 2: … and so is PM Takaichi’s more expansive fiscal stance. JGB yields continued to increase, as the curve bear flattened in recent months. Lower hedging costs will only provide a small relief for OATs. Joint FX intervention countered yen weakness… but a structural shift in rate spreads and investor behaviour crucial for further yen recovery.. We expect sideways movement in the yen in the coming months and a further recovery towards the end of 2027.
China - Domestic imbalances worsening, trade tensions brewing
- Macro economy
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Supply-demand imbalances worsen amidst weak growth momentum. Beijing still seems to be taking a cautious approach towards fresh stimulus. US-China tensions resurface in run-up to Trump-Xi summit; tougher EU stance on China.
Global Monthly - Deal or no deal: Does it still matter?
- Macro economy
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The energy shock is back, but its impact more idiosyncratic than before. A lot of energy is getting through Hormuz ‘dark’, and this lowers the importance of a deal to re-open the Strait. Less important ≠ not important, and a deal would still help restore LNG flows, lower inflation and reduce European energy supply risks. Resurgent energy prices and stubborn inflation are keeping central banks on edge. Markets have probably gone too far pricing hikes…but the risk of more tightening than we currently expect has risen.
