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The Week Ahead - 31 January - 6 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 26 - 31 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - Exports support growth, supply-demand imbalances still rising
- Macro economy
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Real GDP growth slowed to 3-year low of 4.5% y/y in Q4 as expected, annual growth of 5% ‘on target’. Divergence remains: Exports and industrial production solid, offsetting weak investment and retail sales. Risks around fragile US-China truce resurface; targeted support shifts from consumption to investment.
Global Monthly - Orange is the new Green
- Macro economy
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Geopolitical risk is increasingly dominating the outlook. The US-EU dispute over Greenland threatens a new tariff war – or worse. Over the next month, we will see just how far Trump is prepared to go to obtain Greenland, and whether Europe can stand its ground. We refrain from changing our base case given the fluidity of events, but uncertainty is clearly back with a vengeance, and the outlook less benign. Spotlight: We present a framework to analyse the main channels through which geopolitical risk impacts the economy.
The Week Ahead - 19 - 23 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global manufacturing: Still expanding during turbulent times
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI remained (just) in expansion territory at end-2025 – Following some US tariff related weakness in mid-2025, PMI manufacturing surveys indicate that global industry has remained in expansion mode in the second half of last year, though not at a spectacular pace. Since August 2025, the global manufacturing PMI has been back above the neutral 50 mark separating expansion from contraction, with a peak of 50.9 in August and October. In December, this index dropped back slightly to a five-month low of 50.4 (November: 50.5). The picture was stable across the board, with the aggregate index for developed markets (DMs) staying at 50.5, and the aggregate index for emerging markets (EMs) slightly down to 50.4 (November: 50.5).
The Week Ahead - 12 - 16 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - PMIs point to improving momentum at year-end
- Macro economy
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Both manufacturing PMIs rose back to expansion territory in December. Both composite PMIs up for the first time since September. • Still more targeted support and piecemeal monetary easing expected this year.
The Week Ahead - 22 - 26 December 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China: Domestic demand slows, imbalances keep rising
- Macro economy
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China's November data point to further slowdown in domestic demand. China's rising imbalances may lead to new trade tensions, also with EU. Central Economic Work conference signals shift in focus towards investment support.
