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Carbon Market Strategist - Bullish momentum amid changing dynamics
- Natural resources
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Gas and carbon prices are decoupling due to sufficient gas storage and upcoming LNG capacity in 2026. Industrial demand recovery in Europe has slowed, reflecting weaker demand for EUAs. US tariffs are expected to hinder industrial recovery until late 2025. Anticipation of a market deficit in 2026, tighter emissions caps, phaseout of free allocations, and early positioning by traders are driving the bullish trend in EUA prices. We foresee EUA prices to rise, averaging 80 EUR/tCO2 in Q4 2025 and reaching 100 EUR/tCO2 by end of 2026.
Gas Market Monitor - Winter approaches and gas markets exhale
- Macro economy
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Europe has filled 83% of gas storage, boosted by lower Asian LNG competition, increasing confidence for winter. Despite this, supply constraints persist until early 2026, when new capacity from the US and Canada is expected to ease the market. European industrial demand weakens amid global economic slowdown and tariffs, with recovery expected in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus. TTF prices remain sensitive to Middle East or other peace talks, sanctions, US-China trade war, and supply disruptions. Our outlook for Q4 year ahead contract to average around 38 EUR/MWh before easing in 2026.
Oil market monitor - Glut looms while tensions keep prices afloat
- Natural resources
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Even after the announcement of OPEC+ to release additional 0.137 mb/d for October, the geopolitical uncertainty associated to additional sanctions on Russia and Iran, lower interest rates, and strategic stockpiling have been putting a floor on prices. Brent prices have been hovering between 65 and 70 $/b since the beginning of August. Meanwhile, main agencies have emphasized their expectation for a glut in the coming months driven by a combination of slower demand growth and an increase in supply by both OPEC+ and Non-OPEC+ suppliers. Brent is trading at 66.27 $/b at the time of writing.
ESG Economist - Scenarios shaping EU ETS prices
- Sustainability
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Using Bloomberg's EUCPM model, we run scenarios to simulate several market and policy changes in the EU ETS market. Our baseline scenario sees EUA prices rising to €145/tCO2 by 2030 and €200/tCO2 by 2035, driven mainly by lower supply of allowances and a decline in the Total Number of Allowances in Circulation (TNAC).
ESG Economist - Dutch balancing challenge in the renewable era
- Sustainability
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Considering the surge in renewable capacity to meet climate goals, a new challenge is facing power market operators, namely grid balancing. This is because of the intermittent nature of renewable generation, which makes supply vulnerable to weather conditions, especially in the absence of sufficient grid and flexible capacity. In such a case, curtailment and negative prices episodes become more frequent, along with frequency swings, which induces blackouts and economic costs. Furthermore, such situation would discourage investments and slowdown the transition process. The recent nation-wide blackout in Spain and Portugal put this challenge in the spotlight raising concerns about energy stability and security across Europe. This article dive into this topic with a focus on the Dutch case. We revisit the current and envisioned power mix in the Netherlands. We further explore the challenges, risks and opportunities facing development of flexible technologies in the Netherlands. We end with recommendations.
Carbon Market Strategist - Carbon price paradoxes and policy puzzles
- Natural resources
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Carbon prices stabilized post-Israel-Iran conflict, with gas and carbon markets showing signs of decoupling. New EU-US tariffs may hinder European growth, but EU fiscal stimulus could drive recovery by 2026. Power emissions decreased, reducing allowance demand; bullish sentiment is back as September's surrender date approaches. CBAM is expected to start in 2026, leveling EU market fields; EU-UK market linkage may lower EUA prices. We anticipate stable carbon prices in Q3; fiscal stimulus may increase prices from 72 EUR/tCO2 to 82 EUR/tCO2 by Q2 2026.
Gas Market Monitor - Market tightness is here to stay until 2026
- Natural resources
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In this edition: European gas prices show some stabilization post-Israel-Iran conflict… Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could affect LNG flows and prices, with risks from US-imposed secondary tariffs… Lower European gas demand and industrial constraints persist; EU-US tariff deal will help to reduce market uncertainty… Tight LNG market remains through 2025; relief is anticipated in 2026 with new US and Canadian LNG supply… TTF prices are anticipated to maintain current levels in Q3, with an expected rise during the heating season, followed by a gradual decrease in 2026.
Oil Market Monitor - From war dramas to tariff trauma and beyond
- Macro economy
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The brief Iran-Israel conflict resulted in a temporary risk premium on Brent prices, amounting up to 12 $/b. OPEC+ decided to increase supply by 0.55 mb/d putting all voluntary cuts back to the market. We are heading for a supply glut in 2025 due to slower demand growth and increased output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries. However, persistent geopolitical tensions are keeping bearish sentiment from fully dominating crude prices. While trade tensions and tariffs would potentially disrupt crude flows. The demand-supply imbalance should push prices significantly lower.
Gas Market Monitor - Lower uncertainty with relaxed storage targets
- Natural resources
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We expect European gas prices to barely move in the coming months as long as there is no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. European gas prices have been responsive to the developments in the peace talks. Lower LNG competition from Asia, less stringent storage requirements, along with favorable weather conditions have put a lid on prices. Therefore the market has become less bullish. But the market remains tight. Volatility could emerge from adverse weather conditions, more geopolitical tensions, or prospect of substantial supply disruptions.
ESG Economist - CBAM impacts and opportunities
- Macro economy
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The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is integral to the EU Green Deal, designed to level the playing field for domestic and foreign producers while minimizing carbon leakage. The European Commission's Omnibus proposal offers simplifications to ease administrative burdens, ensuring most emissions remain covered.
