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ESG Economist - Renewables are at crossroads
- Sustainability
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Costs for onshore wind and solar PV have significantly decreased over the past decade but have stabilized recently, while CCS, battery storage, and hydrogen remain relatively expensive. Grid congestion, curtailment, and lower capture prices are becoming key bottlenecks. Batteries are essential for addressing grid constraints and renewable intermittency, enabling energy storage, grid stability, and improved project economics. Oversupply in battery production has resulted in significantly lower prices, but as demand and material prices rise, upward pressure on prices may emerge. The focus is moving from renewable capacity expansion to system integration, requiring investments in storage, grids, and flexible infrastructure for a resilient energy system.
Gas Market Monitor - Storage strains and LNG shifts
- Sustainability
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The European gas market continues to experience sharp fluctuations in early 2026. These fluctuations reflect an ongoing transformation, shaped by weather volatility, evolving financial trading patterns, and the rapid expansion of global LNG supply. Recent developments have underscored key challenges, including critically low storage levels and persistently high prices. A notable feature of the market in January has been the steep backwardation of TTF futures curves, where the spread between month-ahead and year-ahead contracts has reached record highs. This trend highlights traders' acute concerns about near-term supply constraints and reflects the ongoing pressure from below-average storage levels. Despite these challenges, Europe’s commitment to diversifying its energy sources and rebuilding inventories demonstrates a clear focus on achieving long-term market stability and energy security. TTF month ahead contract is trading at 32.7 EUR/MWh at the time of writing.
Oil Market Monitor - Geopolitics drive volatility amid supply glut
- Natural resources
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The downward trend in oil prices was reversed in 2026 as markets responded to rapid geopolitical developments. The overthrow of Venezuela's leadership, new U.S. sanctions on Iran, ongoing threats against the Iranian regime, and the slow progress in peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine have all contributed to an increase in the geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude prices. Despite these pressures, the surplus in oil supply has helped to cap further price increases. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has maintained its decision to pause production increases for the first quarter of the year. Global demand has proven more resilient than anticipated, though the outlook remains clouded by growing tensions between the U.S. and the EU over Greenland, including the potential for new U.S. tariffs and possible EU retaliation. Given the rising geopolitical uncertainties and the dynamic nature of recent events, we choose to leave our outlook unchanged for now. At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading at $64.1 per barrel.
Carbon Market Strategist - Carbon prices heat up in 2026
- Sustainability
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In this publication: A looming supply deficit in 2026 due to tightening emissions cap and reduced free allocations is a key driver of rising prices, with an expected supply reduction of around 180 million ton (YoY); Traders and funds are driving the bullish momentum with increased hedging and long contracts; Despite uncertainties around free allocation benchmarks and shipping allowances, tighter supply is expected to drive the upward trend in 2026; We see prices reaching 100 EUR/tCO2 by year end.
ESG Economist - Reshaping gas, carbon, and power markets through the energy transition
- Natural resources
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Renewables and reforms weaken the gas–carbon–power link, shifting price drivers to long-term factors like renewables, flexibility, and stricter emissions caps.
Energy Market Outlook 2026 - Oil oversupply and European gas price stabilization
- Macro economy
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We expect Brent crude to average $55/b in 2026, gradually declining to $50/b by year-end. TTF gas prices forecast to average €30/MWh in 2026, with summer prices falling to €26/MWh.
ESG Economist - Balancing European competitiveness with export rebates
- Sustainability
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By 2026, CBAM will impose tariffs on the carbon content of imported goods, aiming to prevent carbon leakage and ensure fair competition within EU markets.
Carbon Market Strategist - Bullish momentum amid changing dynamics
- Natural resources
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Gas and carbon prices are decoupling due to sufficient gas storage and upcoming LNG capacity in 2026. Industrial demand recovery in Europe has slowed, reflecting weaker demand for EUAs. US tariffs are expected to hinder industrial recovery until late 2025. Anticipation of a market deficit in 2026, tighter emissions caps, phaseout of free allocations, and early positioning by traders are driving the bullish trend in EUA prices. We foresee EUA prices to rise, averaging 80 EUR/tCO2 in Q4 2025 and reaching 100 EUR/tCO2 by end of 2026.
Gas Market Monitor - Winter approaches and gas markets exhale
- Macro economy
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Europe has filled 83% of gas storage, boosted by lower Asian LNG competition, increasing confidence for winter. Despite this, supply constraints persist until early 2026, when new capacity from the US and Canada is expected to ease the market. European industrial demand weakens amid global economic slowdown and tariffs, with recovery expected in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus. TTF prices remain sensitive to Middle East or other peace talks, sanctions, US-China trade war, and supply disruptions. Our outlook for Q4 year ahead contract to average around 38 EUR/MWh before easing in 2026.
Oil market monitor - Glut looms while tensions keep prices afloat
- Natural resources
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Even after the announcement of OPEC+ to release additional 0.137 mb/d for October, the geopolitical uncertainty associated to additional sanctions on Russia and Iran, lower interest rates, and strategic stockpiling have been putting a floor on prices. Brent prices have been hovering between 65 and 70 $/b since the beginning of August. Meanwhile, main agencies have emphasized their expectation for a glut in the coming months driven by a combination of slower demand growth and an increase in supply by both OPEC+ and Non-OPEC+ suppliers. Brent is trading at 66.27 $/b at the time of writing.
