Our research

Oil Market Monitor - The ripple effects of Strait of Hormuz closure

The war in Iran has significantly disrupted global oil and gas markets, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing a shortfall of over 20 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil and refined products from the Gulf region. This has stranded numerous cargos on either side of the passage, while escalating attacks on energy infrastructure threaten prolonged disruptions and a new wave of higher inflation globally. In response, countries linked to the IEA plan a coordinated release of 412 million barrels of emergency stocks. While efforts to reroute disrupted supplies and reduce demand provide some short-term relief, a prolonged disruption would have devastating consequences worldwide.

Carbon Market Strategist-Supply uncertainty and weaker demand reshape carbon market outlook

EUA prices peaked early 2026, then fell back as sentiment weakened and intervention possibility increased. Tighter LNG markets revived fuel switching dynamics, but impacts are expected to be smaller than in 2022. Traders reduced long positions and increased shorts as bullish sentiment faded. Rising geopolitical uncertainty reduces allowance demand expectations from main sectors. CBAM entered its definitive phase; upcoming EU ETS/MSR reforms increased near term supply uncertainty. We revised 2026 outlook downward, though price recovery is still expected later in the year.

Podcast - Talking Macro: Is Europe heading for a new energy crisis?

In this episode, Bill speaks with Senior Energy Economist Moutaz Altaghlibi about how the Iran conflict is affecting global energy markets, and whether Europe faces the risk of a new energy crisis.

Macro scenarios of the Iran conflict

The conflict in between the US-Israel and Iran has entered its 11th day. Geopolitical risk, as measured by the GPR index, has spiked to levels last seen around the Iraq invasion in 2003, and has remained highly elevated since. Since our initial publication last week Monday, it has been a rollercoaster ride for both oil and gas markets [1]. Given the ongoing uncertainty around the duration and impact of the conflict, we have put together three scenarios exploring how the macro-economic impact could evolve over the coming months, focused on the US and eurozone, and with the implications for the ECB and Fed’s key policy rates. We will follow up this note with updates on how we see these scenarios impacting bond and FX markets in the coming days.

What a prolonged LNG supply shock could mean for gas prices and inflation

ESG Economist - Renewables are at crossroads

Costs for onshore wind and solar PV have significantly decreased over the past decade but have stabilized recently, while CCS, battery storage, and hydrogen remain relatively expensive. Grid congestion, curtailment, and lower capture prices are becoming key bottlenecks. Batteries are essential for addressing grid constraints and renewable intermittency, enabling energy storage, grid stability, and improved project economics. Oversupply in battery production has resulted in significantly lower prices, but as demand and material prices rise, upward pressure on prices may emerge. The focus is moving from renewable capacity expansion to system integration, requiring investments in storage, grids, and flexible infrastructure for a resilient energy system.

Gas Market Monitor - Storage strains and LNG shifts

The European gas market continues to experience sharp fluctuations in early 2026. These fluctuations reflect an ongoing transformation, shaped by weather volatility, evolving financial trading patterns, and the rapid expansion of global LNG supply. Recent developments have underscored key challenges, including critically low storage levels and persistently high prices. A notable feature of the market in January has been the steep backwardation of TTF futures curves, where the spread between month-ahead and year-ahead contracts has reached record highs. This trend highlights traders' acute concerns about near-term supply constraints and reflects the ongoing pressure from below-average storage levels. Despite these challenges, Europe’s commitment to diversifying its energy sources and rebuilding inventories demonstrates a clear focus on achieving long-term market stability and energy security. TTF month ahead contract is trading at 32.7 EUR/MWh at the time of writing.

Oil Market Monitor - Geopolitics drive volatility amid supply glut

The downward trend in oil prices was reversed in 2026 as markets responded to rapid geopolitical developments. The overthrow of Venezuela's leadership, new U.S. sanctions on Iran, ongoing threats against the Iranian regime, and the slow progress in peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine have all contributed to an increase in the geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude prices. Despite these pressures, the surplus in oil supply has helped to cap further price increases. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has maintained its decision to pause production increases for the first quarter of the year. Global demand has proven more resilient than anticipated, though the outlook remains clouded by growing tensions between the U.S. and the EU over Greenland, including the potential for new U.S. tariffs and possible EU retaliation. Given the rising geopolitical uncertainties and the dynamic nature of recent events, we choose to leave our outlook unchanged for now. At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading at $64.1 per barrel.

Carbon Market Strategist - Carbon prices heat up in 2026

In this publication: A looming supply deficit in 2026 due to tightening emissions cap and reduced free allocations is a key driver of rising prices, with an expected supply reduction of around 180 million ton (YoY); Traders and funds are driving the bullish momentum with increased hedging and long contracts; Despite uncertainties around free allocation benchmarks and shipping allowances, tighter supply is expected to drive the upward trend in 2026; We see prices reaching 100 EUR/tCO2 by year end.

ESG Economist - Reshaping gas, carbon, and power markets through the energy transition

Renewables and reforms weaken the gas–carbon–power link, shifting price drivers to long-term factors like renewables, flexibility, and stricter emissions caps.