Our research

ESG Economist - Europe’s path to energy security

Expanding renewable energy sources, alongside investments in grids, storage, and supply chains, creates a sustainable and affordable energy system while reducing import dependency. Despite progress, projections show a significant gap between the current trajectory and the 2030 targets, prolonging reliance on imported fossil fuels and increasing geopolitical risks. Reducing energy intensity and improving efficiency decouples economic growth from energy consumption, strengthening competitiveness and lowering exposure to volatile energy markets. The expansion of electrification, based on the expansion of renewable energy, is crucial to safeguarding the EU’s energy security. Energy efficiency, innovation and the reuse of raw materials make countries less dependent on volatile energy markets and imports. Expanding storage capacity, refining facilities, and grid infrastructure ensures stability during energy crises and supports the transition to renewables. Integration of cross-border energy systems, aligned policies, and collaborative strategies strengthen resilience and reduce dependencies on external suppliers.

Gas Market Monitor - Gas markets find relief as Europe races to refill storage

Europe’s reliance on LNG has increased since 2022, raising its exposure to global LNG disruptions; the US supplied 58% of European LNG imports in 2025. European gas prices initially surged on the Iran conflict but later eased as Asian demand weakened and US LNG inflows increased. The US-Iran agreement provided further relief, pushing TTF prices around 15% lower, although short term prices remain higher than long term ones. High injection-season prices have discouraged storage filling, leaving EU storage at a seasonal low of 44.7%. Stable Norwegian and US inflows, returning Qatari supply, and weaker Asian competition should allow Europe to reach around 75% storage by October. However, renewed conflict, supply disruptions, adverse weather, or project delays could slow replenishment and keep prices elevated. We expect gas prices to remain above seasonal averages, averaging 46 EUR/MWh in Q2, 43 EUR/MWh in Q3, and around 48 EUR/MWh during the heating season.

Carbon Market Strategist - Revised outlook amid anticipated structural shifts

The initial surge in EUA prices in 2026 is reversed as sentiment shifted due to the upcoming ETS review and geopolitical tensions. We revise our Baseline long term outlook downward to 138 EUR/tCO2 by 2030 and 191 EUR/tCO2 by 2035 due to weaker demand and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Linking the EU and UK ETS in 2028 would slightly lower prices, while carbon removals inclusion in 2031 would trigger a sharp drop in prices before recovering by 2035. EUA prices for 2026 are revised downward, to an average of 82 EUR/tCO2, reflecting weaker demand, geopolitical volatility, and policy-driven market uncertainty.

Oil Market Monitor - The ripple effects of Strait of Hormuz closure

The war in Iran has significantly disrupted global oil and gas markets, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing a shortfall of over 20 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil and refined products from the Gulf region. This has stranded numerous cargos on either side of the passage, while escalating attacks on energy infrastructure threaten prolonged disruptions and a new wave of higher inflation globally. In response, countries linked to the IEA plan a coordinated release of 412 million barrels of emergency stocks. While efforts to reroute disrupted supplies and reduce demand provide some short-term relief, a prolonged disruption would have devastating consequences worldwide.

Carbon Market Strategist-Supply uncertainty and weaker demand reshape carbon market outlook

EUA prices peaked early 2026, then fell back as sentiment weakened and intervention possibility increased. Tighter LNG markets revived fuel switching dynamics, but impacts are expected to be smaller than in 2022. Traders reduced long positions and increased shorts as bullish sentiment faded. Rising geopolitical uncertainty reduces allowance demand expectations from main sectors. CBAM entered its definitive phase; upcoming EU ETS/MSR reforms increased near term supply uncertainty. We revised 2026 outlook downward, though price recovery is still expected later in the year.

Podcast - Talking Macro: Is Europe heading for a new energy crisis?

In this episode, Bill speaks with Senior Energy Economist Moutaz Altaghlibi about how the Iran conflict is affecting global energy markets, and whether Europe faces the risk of a new energy crisis.

Macro scenarios of the Iran conflict

The conflict in between the US-Israel and Iran has entered its 11th day. Geopolitical risk, as measured by the GPR index, has spiked to levels last seen around the Iraq invasion in 2003, and has remained highly elevated since. Since our initial publication last week Monday, it has been a rollercoaster ride for both oil and gas markets [1]. Given the ongoing uncertainty around the duration and impact of the conflict, we have put together three scenarios exploring how the macro-economic impact could evolve over the coming months, focused on the US and eurozone, and with the implications for the ECB and Fed’s key policy rates. We will follow up this note with updates on how we see these scenarios impacting bond and FX markets in the coming days.

What a prolonged LNG supply shock could mean for gas prices and inflation

ESG Economist - Renewables are at crossroads

Costs for onshore wind and solar PV have significantly decreased over the past decade but have stabilized recently, while CCS, battery storage, and hydrogen remain relatively expensive. Grid congestion, curtailment, and lower capture prices are becoming key bottlenecks. Batteries are essential for addressing grid constraints and renewable intermittency, enabling energy storage, grid stability, and improved project economics. Oversupply in battery production has resulted in significantly lower prices, but as demand and material prices rise, upward pressure on prices may emerge. The focus is moving from renewable capacity expansion to system integration, requiring investments in storage, grids, and flexible infrastructure for a resilient energy system.

Gas Market Monitor - Storage strains and LNG shifts

The European gas market continues to experience sharp fluctuations in early 2026. These fluctuations reflect an ongoing transformation, shaped by weather volatility, evolving financial trading patterns, and the rapid expansion of global LNG supply. Recent developments have underscored key challenges, including critically low storage levels and persistently high prices. A notable feature of the market in January has been the steep backwardation of TTF futures curves, where the spread between month-ahead and year-ahead contracts has reached record highs. This trend highlights traders' acute concerns about near-term supply constraints and reflects the ongoing pressure from below-average storage levels. Despite these challenges, Europe’s commitment to diversifying its energy sources and rebuilding inventories demonstrates a clear focus on achieving long-term market stability and energy security. TTF month ahead contract is trading at 32.7 EUR/MWh at the time of writing.