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The Week Ahead - 28 April - 2 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - The Art of the No-Deal
Following sharp escalation of US-China trade war in April, a direct export shock to the US is imminent. Exemptions for electronics, trade circumvention/reorientation and more support will mitigate this shock. We lowered our annual growth forecasts for 2025/ 2026 to 4.1% (from 4.3%) and 3.9% (from 4.2%).
Global Monthly - The only certainty is uncertainty
US policy has been erratic, to put it mildly. Tariffs were announced, paused, and then focused on China, but with key exemptions. It is unclear what the Trump administration actually wants. This makes predicting outcomes even harder. With uncertainty the only real certainty, the global – especially the US – economy is the main casualty. But so, increasingly, is the US’s leadership of the global financial system. Spotlight: The US dollar is facing testing times, but the real test is still to come. Despite the pressures it is facing, we still see no viable alternative.
The Week Ahead - 21 - 25 April 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China enters trade war on solid first quarter
Real GDP growth in Q1 stronger than expected driven by ongoing policy support and trade frontloading. March macro data point to improving momentum just before tariff shock will hit. Growth forecasts under review; we will publish revised growth forecasts in our Global Monthly later this month.
The Week Ahead - 14 - 18 April 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
One week later - Reversal Day
Reciprocal tariff pause limits downside risks, but growth shock still significant
The Week Ahead - 7 - 11 April 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Tariffs risk recession - a forecast update
President Trump announced sweeping ‘reciprocal’ tariffs based on the size of the bilateral trade deficit. We expect both the US and the eurozone to slow sharply and only just skirt a recession, while the US will also have to deal with higher inflation. Monetary policy divergence is likely to re-emerge as a theme, with the ECB cutting rates further but the Fed remaining on hold. Fiscal stimulus should help drive a eurozone recovery in 2026, but growth improvement in the US next year will be more tepid.
China - After Liberation day
After announcement of US reciprocal tariff plan, China now faced with (at least) 54% US import tariffs