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The Week Ahead - 30 June - 4 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Japan: The Land of the Rising Yields
We expect drags from US tariffs to keep a lid on Japanese growth. Trade talks with the US are taking quite some time. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently lowered its inflation forecasts, but upside risks remain. We expect the BoJ to stay on a cautious, gradual hiking path. In its June meeting, the BoJ announced to slow its pace of tapering, as expected. High public debt and rising rates pose challenges, but there are risk-mitigating factors. Meanwhile, the Japanese government bond curve has steepened due to a higher term premium. We do not have indications for structural US debt outflows by Japanese investors, yet. We expect the yen to appreciate versus the US dollar in 2025-2026.
The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 9 - 13 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 2 - 6 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - Geneva truce softens export shock, but uncertainty remains
April data show impact of trade war escalation last month, before Geneva truce. (Temporary) reduction of tariffs softens key drag, although uncertainty remains high. We raise our annual growth forecasts for 2025/ 2026 to 4.7% (from 4.1%) and 4.2% (from 3.9%).
Global Monthly - Are we past the worst with tariffs?
The US-China trade truce shows that there are limits in how far the Trump administration is prepared go in implementing its radical trade agenda. We expect significant tariffs to remain in place, and this will weigh on growth in the near term. However, the trough in growth is likely to be shallower, and the downside risks significantly reduced. We lay out our forecast changes on the back of recent developments. Spotlight: Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill is highly regressive, puts upward pressure on bond yields, and risks amplifying economic downturns.
China - April data show hit from trade war pre-Geneva
April data confirm hit from trade war escalation last month. Growth momentum expected to pick up again following Geneva truce, but uncertainty remains.
The Week Ahead - 19 - 23 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 12 – 16 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.