Our research

The Netherlands - Resilient, but not immune

Solid foundations, the unique position in the semi-conductor supply chain and government spending have helped the Dutch economy withstand another energy shock. Growth is expected to moderate in 2027–28 as higher interest rates and inflation weigh on demand, despite continued support from exports. Inflation will remain persistent, while supply bottlenecks limit the economy’s growth potential.

Global Outlook - How resilient is resilience?

In this publication we present our economic outlook for the year ahead, while also adding our forecasts for 2028 for the first time. The global economy has expanded robustly despite many shocks over the past few years. We will explain why we think the economic expansion will continue, though we could once see more divergence between the US and the rest of the world, with Europe in particular falling behind. In addition, we explore a number of risks hanging over the global economy, which could potentially challenge the global economy’s remarkable record of resilience.

Eurozone inflation: Another wave, but not a repeat of 2022

Eurozone inflation: Still very much an energy story

Energy prices pushed inflation up again in October, to 4.0% y/y from 3.8% y/y in September. This was in line with consensus but a touch above our forecast of 3.9% y/y.

Eurozone GDP: Strong headline, steady underlying growth

The Netherlands - Resilient growth meets persistent bottlenecks

With GDP growth in H1-26 outperforming earlier estimates, we raised our 2026 forecast to 1.5%. Growth will moderate in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, but is still solid. Inflation is on the rise and will exceed 3% for the fifth year in a row this year.

Global Monthly - Will the bond sell-off derail the economy?

The global economy has shrugged off repeated shocks, but rising bond yields are emerging as a new challenge to the expansion. Bond markets are mostly pricing higher neutral rates, with fiscal concerns adding to yield increases in France, Belgium and the UK. Higher rates may slow the expansion, but they are unlikely to derail the US or eurozone economies on their own. The growth impact will be bigger in fiscally vulnerable economies, with France facing the twin challenge of consolidation and bigger rate rises. Markets may be overestimating how long policy rates will stay elevated, leaving room for bond yields to fall back next year. Regional updates: Rising yields temper rate hike pace in the Eurozone. We raise our growth forecast in the Netherlands following a strong H1. In the US, narrower inflation reduces the urgency of the Fed to hike. Growth gains momentum in China helped by targeted fiscal support

Eurozone inflation hits 3 year high; 4%+ by year-end

Prinsjesdag 2026: A budget in search of a majority

The Minority cabinet Jetten I presented its first full budget today at ‘Prinsjesdag’ (Budget Day). Today’s budget is yet without a majority and therefore features policies aimed at securing support from opposition parties. As a result, changes to today’s budget are expected during the upcoming budget debates. The impact on the budget deficit is expected to be limited, given tight agreement among coalition partners on budget rules… and as a result, we do not expect a significant impact on the funding need for 2027. The Dutch economy is resilient while long term challenges are mounting and inflation stays too high compared to peers.

Spotlight - A perfect storm for food inflation?

Food inflation remained contained in recent quarters, but leading indicators suggest upward pressures are building and we expect food inflation to start rising again towards the end of 2026 and into 2027. Heat and drought records were once again broken across the EU and the US, which is expected to put upward pressure on European food price. The impact of El Niño is likely to be more mixed. Our base case sees food price rises adding 0.5pp to eurozone HICP inflation at its peak by Q3 2027.