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The Week Ahead - 25 August - 5 September 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming 2 weeks.
The Netherlands - Heading into budget and election season
- Macro economy
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Q2 GDP came in at 0.1% q/q, roughly in line with our expectations (0.2% q/q), leading to small tweaks to our annual forecast of 1.5% in 2025 (from 1.6%) and 1.1% in 2026 (from 1.3%). Tariffs will weigh on activity in the near term, directly and indirectly via main trading partners. 2026 growth benefits from rate cuts, solid demand and fiscal spending in main trading partner Germany. After summer, it is all eyes on the Hague, with the caretaker government presenting the 2026 budget, and the election campaign ahead of the 29 October elections.
Global Monthly - Bracing for impact
- Macro economy
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The tariff deals the US struck over the summer have averted a worst case scenario for the global economy. The impact of tariffs remains uncertain, and depends on how, when and where businesses pass on the tariffs to consumers. We have modestly downgraded our eurozone growth forecast as tariff rates came in somewhat higher than the base case. Stronger domestic demand is helping, amid US and China weakness.
The Week Ahead - 4 - 15 August 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming 2 weeks.
The Week Ahead - 28 July - 1 August 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 21 - 25 July 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 14 - 18 July 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 7 - 11 July 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Netherlands - Political turmoil amid economic resilience
- Macro economy
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Q1 GDP revisions suggest a more positive start to 2025, lifting our annual forecast from 1.2% to 1.6%. Tariffs will weigh on activity in the near term, directly and indirectly via main trading partners. The Dutch government fell, adding domestic policy uncertainty amid elevated international uncertainty. With elections on 29 October, 2026 will be well underway before a new government is installed.
Global Monthly - Six themes to watch over the summer
- Macro economy
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Despite the rollercoaster ride in between, the landing zone for tariffs is looking remarkably close to our expectations last November. Trade deals are likely to be announced over the coming weeks, and even if they aren’t, we will probably see deadlines pushed back. Growth is still expected to slow near-term, but downside risks have been reduced, while a re-escalation is likely to prove short-lived. Further out, the US economy is expected to weaken, while eurozone growth is expected to pickup, driven by higher German fiscal spending. We preview these and other themes to watch over the summer. Spotlight: In this Sustainability special, we lay out the macro-economic impact of Net Zero and Delayed Transition scenarios.
