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The Netherlands - A tailored support package
- Macro economy
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While downside risks have clearly increased, we expect Q1 GDP to come in at 0.4% q/q. The Dutch cabinet has proposed various measures to support households and companies. The risk of second round effects on wages and inflation is bigger for the Netherlands. Rather than rising, the new bout of inflation will mean purchasing power stagnates in 2026.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz stand-off
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict has morphed from a hot war to an economic one, with both sides using the Hormuz chokepoint as negotiation leverage. Energy supply disruptions are bigger than ever, but market worries have subsided, with peace efforts given the benefit of the doubt. We make only incremental forecast adjustments this month, keeping our core view that severe energy disruptions persist to end-May. We also update our more positive and negative scenarios for the conflict.
Key Macro Events 9 – 13 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 31 January - 6 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 26 - 31 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global Monthly - Orange is the new Green
- Macro economy
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Geopolitical risk is increasingly dominating the outlook. The US-EU dispute over Greenland threatens a new tariff war – or worse. Over the next month, we will see just how far Trump is prepared to go to obtain Greenland, and whether Europe can stand its ground. We refrain from changing our base case given the fluidity of events, but uncertainty is clearly back with a vengeance, and the outlook less benign. Spotlight: We present a framework to analyse the main channels through which geopolitical risk impacts the economy.
The Week Ahead - 19 - 23 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 12 - 16 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 22 - 26 December 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 15 - 19 December 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.